Ok. I posted aggregate data for Mean Machine’s legendary task completions over here.
I hope that @turintuor will be able to use this data in his probability analyses.
Some thoughts on the data as I reviewed the listing…
Perhaps the kinds of payouts that we see might be changing/ get adjusted over time?
What happens on special days like Christmas… Is there ever a higher probability of getting a better pull from Table 3?
Sadly, MM did not do any Legendaries on December 25th, but I’m still curious about anecdotal surprises from those other Guilds (you know who!) doing 200+ Task completions per month.
Thanks for the data. I didn’t continue to gather data because:
as you said, the weights of each rewards can be modified by the devs. In this case, all the previous can go in the trash…
the initial goal was to know the probability to obtain a Mythic and to see if we could farm LT to obtain the exclusive Mythic. But the new Mythic is not exclusive during one week and the probability seems very low…
guild seals should be there but are not. Devs never provide a clear answer aside… The best that we have is that:
Of course as soon as devs add guild seals, we have to start again from scratch…
At first I thought that 3) will be solved in the month and so wait for one month. But no news and so I finally stop…
In fact, I’m a little bit tired of the “SOON” answer…
For Table 2, it can be 2 OR 3 Event Keys. I don’t know if it’s a mistake or not.
I believe it’s a mistake. I’m probably using incorrect terms to describe this part(!), but the 2 Event Key value appears to be linked to a Non-Random Biased result…
My epidemiology professor (i.e. medical statistician) proposed that when examining raw data, one should let the data speak for itself when it comes to revealing anything of interest. I went and compared Mean Machine’s results to those from @Ashasekayi Black Dragon, @Saluki INTRIM, and @Aelthwyn Anonymous.
In all cases, whenever a pull from Table 2 resulted in 2 Event Keys, it was ALWAYS positively linked to receiving either 6 Gems Keys (Table 3) OR 2 Gem Keys (Table 1) in that same Legendary Task.
I wouldn’t mind if the number crunchers could take a look at these findings, please.
Looking thru my data, I cant really confirm anything with certainty because while I do keep track of every task we get, I have not specifically noted which table we got 2 event keys from. It could be determined by looking closely at each task again, but I dont really want to delve that deeply.
What I can say is there is very noticeable correlation between 2 event keys and 6 gem keys.
I do not see as much correlation with 2 event keys and 2 gem keys. It does occur, but not very often.
i think if the odds were changed for a certain days devs would certainly boast a banner about it!
but its still a cool idea, post it on featur requests
So, after several months and several hundreds of tasks completed, we now have a decent sample to make some statistics.
And it seems that the gods of RNG are not with us, our percentage of mythics being tremendously low.
We also seem to get really a lot of minors currently.
Anyone else has stats to share so that we can compare and see if our results are consistent?
Of course the “Event keys x 2” in table 2 should be read “Event keys x 2 or 3”.
Table 1 should be removed, and we should get 2 rewards from table 2 and 1 from table 3.
Rewards are very underwhelming.
We are yet to recieve a mythic from legendary task, and we do 7-10 every week.
could we please get runics instead of minors? And while we are on it, can we get runics (one of each color) rather than the keys from glory packs (the troops)
I wouldnt mind even draak. Few members are missing that bad boy, so i would be very happy if they got it through that way
And he got a buff so he is quite nice now
Where is a link of what reward is from what table? I’ve been keeping track of legendary tasks for Dragon’s Peak, and I could probably break it down like this if I could correlate.
It’s actually 33,333 gold from each guild member, and you also two additional loot rolls, one from table 1 and one from table 3. Feels like very good value to me, if such a bundle were available in the shop it would be a no-brainer at that price.
The 2 event keys is probably a copy/paste error in the drop table. I suspect it contains two entries, one for 2 event keys (a leftover from table 1) and one for 3 event keys. Explains the alternating results, going by table progression it should just be 3 event keys.
