Bunch from my guild. I think they’re much, much more likely to post successful runs though.
456321, manually picked
154236, dragonite, manually picked
started with 5, dragonite, manually picked
456231, tool assisted
dragonite, tool assisted
dragonite, tool assisted
dragonite, tool assisted
4,5,6,3,2,1 tool assisted Perfect Run. Even prior to the amazing community analysis and pattern discovery this has been my strategy and has been really successful, so glad to see it being backed up by the data.
I’d just brace for future ninja changes to the way Dungeons are determined as we all know IP2 won’t suffer anything that benefits the player to survive for very long before being dealt with ASAP.
You mean Gems of War will finally fix its RNG for something? I look forward to it.
Realistically speaking, nothing is guaranteed still since you have to survive the first 2-3 guesses to get to the point where the spawning rules start to matter. Maybe that’s all that matters. At that point, they might as well have another public holiday and do anything else.
Sure, nothing is guaranteed. But it does seem that what the community has discovered gives a strategic edge over random guessing since some combinations aren’t possible in the current pattern. But since IP2 can’t just kick out a player for using the pattern to their advantage like casinos do with people adept at counting cards, logically they might alter the pattern so the previous work is moot and a new method has to be determined. They don’t want people to collect more of their shiny new Dragonite currency prematurely to burn through the new content.
Granted it’s not a one to one comparison since multi-deck shuffling in casinos seems like a more thorough RNG than whatever is going on in the programming of GoW, but we’ve all seen that RNG in GoW is a major weakness like you’re referencing.
That’s the thing though, they could have easily done that from Day 1 by making the Dungeon feature without any of the spawn rules. At that point, it could/would/should be difficult to have a “new method” if nothing is consistent. Why they included spawn rules at all is really baffling.
Also, severely low (0 observed) results of 1,2,3 all bosses is bizarre.
Absolutely it doesn’t make sense. I know relatively little about programming, but I’ve always heard that creating a truly random RNG is very difficult for various reasons. Maybe one of the devs just coded in enough variance without it being truly random that they said, “eh, good enough?” while there still being a discernable pattern.
Just goes to show the benefit of the community coming together and aggregating data and combing through it to see what’s really going on.
I was hoping that by following the info posted earlier (4+5, then 2+6) that I would have gotten a perfect run, but I guess it’s not a sure thing. Close though. 
If we’re using the online tool do you still want the data from the run posted here?
You should use sls’ link. It’s the most accurate we have currently.
The probabilities are better now then before, but still no gurantee for perfect runs. Best case 20% if I did the math correct 
Is there a reason for that in the data that I’m not understanding? I was using the tool, and it has 5 and 6 both at 75% after opening a special room in 4. I only ask because if you know something the tool doesn’t, that’s an opportunity to improve it.
I understand that 6 is the “no special” room, but i think the first move just bumps its probability up to be on par with 5.
Yes plz.
Maybe we are still missing something. (i.e. why no bosses in 1, 2 & 3 at the same time yet)
Maybe it has to do with your dungeon level or the colour or the order (i.e. 4,5,6 or 6,5,4)
I should have said; maybe try 6 after 4 since it was the room of the special you opened in 4.
It’s just an idea that those rooms might have a hidden trigger for something.
there was no intention to push you in this direction or any reasonable explanation so far
Day 33. And a perfect run. So 4/33.
542163
My own observation from the other 32 days, have shown that door 5 and 4 have had less traps behind them, than the other doors. And that was confirmed by @CaptainAwesome and others. But what I had not figured out was the “No boss 1 behind door 1” etc. Thank you so much for this info.
Today I found dragon and boss 2 behind door 5+4 and with your info, I knew that boss 1 wasn’t behind door 1. So I had door 2,3,6 to choose from. I got lucky choosing door 2, I chose that because there had not been a boss/dragon behind door 2 the last 2 days and I can’t recall seeing the same pattern 2 days in a row. Could have happened but not often.
I’d be curious to see if first picking door 4 or 5 really lines up with the assumption that these doors are 80% likely to contain a good card or if the percentages for first pick are fixed differently.
But that’d require going over the thread again, picking only the posts that list pick order and maybe even only use posts from people who posted every day to avoid frustration bias. Or maybe I just missed the post already detailing these things.
Addendum for Sunday:
542136, tool assisted, dragonite
415326, manually picked
452631, tool assisted
Very cool thank you.
Not today, but maybe the upcoming week.
We made a pretty good job so far with the screenshots. Maybe we get something else to increase the probability further
This is exactly what I love about the GoW community. Fantastic tools created outside of the game for the players by players using collective abilities, strengths, data collection, and initiative.
Big cheers on this one: @sls for creating and maintaining the tool, and everyone who contributed to the data collection and analysis.
I did the easy part 
