RNG and probability are mutually exclusive regarding the mythic mimic etc because the probability is unknown and so is the RNG range. As is the case with guild wars, where the devs dont publish constants used to determine score, they have also not disclosed the probabilities of mimic battles or mythic mimic battles or mythic mimic drop rates (at least ive not read it anywhere) or even said that these numbers exist. In fact all that was mentioned in the notes following release was mutiple uses of “chance” which suggests pure RNG determines your fate.
Despite this, players are collecting data in an effort to work out a probability for pure RNG which by definition is meaningless, pointless and a complete waste of time and effort which misleads players and gives them unrealistic expectations. Also, RNG demonstrates independent probability because it keeps no record of previous results. RNG, probability and statistical analysis are only linked if the value of probability is known or has been stated to be involved without actually giving a figure.
Edit.
Congratulations @Cronus. Its funny you’re still advocating grind mindset despite your comments to the contrary in a related thread on this subject.
I don’t think they are lying. I think they are very lucky!
Thanks. And let me be clear, I think I never advocated against grind (that’s what I do all the time and what my guild does), I advocated against chasing the hoard mimic mythic drop. For example, a person, who would completely chase the hoard mimic would completely ignore the vault weekend and then keep doing E12 farming, potentially medal farming since that’s the fastest way to get boss battles. However, I ended up doing a mix of E9 and E1. The decision was mainly due to the fact that our guild needed more trophies (hence I did E9 during gnome chasing) and personal gains (E1 for GaP). I wanted to phrase that going E9 for trophies had the pleasant side effect that I would see more chests and finally get the hoard mimic mythic drop.
Otherwise, I am firm believer that the people who grind more have more chances to open that hoard mimic chest and therefore will (on average) find hoard mimic mythic faster. So, grinding? For sure. Dropping everything else to chase it? Not really.
I don’t think so. The amount of myth stones you get on E12 should outweigh the speed you can get on E9. The only reason I did E9 was to increase my trophy outcome, which is important for our guild.
I believe my favorite teams for E9 gives around 140 win per hour and for E12 gives around 100 wins per hour. So, that’s essentially, 28 vs 20 mini boss battles. E9 gives 35.5 myth stones per mini boss and E12 gives 73 myth stones on average. In other words, you get:
994 myth stones per hour on E9, or ~10 boss fights.
1460 myth stones per hour on E12, or ~14.5 boss fights.
To get hoard mimic mythic, all you care is more boss fights since the more you open chests, the more chances you get.
(even if I would do gold farming at 70 wins per hour on E12, I would still get 14 mini boss fights, which is 1022 myth stones. That is still 10 boss chests, which is again, comparable to E9, so even gold farming provides equal (or slightly better) chances)
I realized that I did not answer this. We treat our trophy farming teams secret within the guild so I won’t answer this, but I can tell you that some of the provided answers are already good alternatives.
Our guild (Sons of Anarchy) is the #1 trophy guild and we take pride in this. So, we do our best to continue to be the best. I guess you could say that it is the other side of competing (and trying to become #1) in guild wars.
Other than getting to “God” league, trophies are also frequently used to approximate (note the word) a player’s activity. In other words, a VERY active player would easily put 10K+ trophies per week whereas an inactive player would have problems putting 2K. So, again, in some end-game guilds, this helps us gauge player activity and their production potential. This is how we are able to put 180LTs weekly although our guilds gold requirement is 3M, for example.
399 boss chests and 44 mimic chests to even get my first hoard mimic appearance… about 99% explore 12 (no card). It’s really demotivating to do this and then see others get it with no effort.
It’s even more heavily skewed toward E12 if you follow the 20% bonus around the kingdoms and have lots of level 16 kingdoms for the bonus 10% myths stones, provided you can maintain a high rate of play in any kingdom (I do 110+ wins per hour). You get 93-99 mythstones, making non-chest runs pretty infrequent.
Edit: and then my very next mimic chest also gave a hoard mimic battle, but sadly no mythic drop still.
