Make that 20 boss chests tries a row without mimic today. I can see this can go all the way to 50-100 with bad luck, 10+ hours.
We are in the same boat. I have run close to 150 boss chests and 0 hoard mimic battle for me.
I wonder if anyone managed Mimic chest today in the gnome event, 30 chest chances and nada here.
1 Like
Yesterday, 17 boss chests, 2 mimic chests.
1 Like
not bad, good to see someone is getting those extra tokens. I don’t stress with the Mythic, I just want to get more tokens.
2 Likes
Am I reading the stats correctly to say there is a 15-20% chance to get the Hoard Mimic fight after completing the Mimic fight? Just wondering, because I saw a few HM fights on weekend, but none this week when I’m actually trying… Had lots of Mimic fights though…
Statistic is very tricky. Ideally, you want thousands of data points to ensure that you are reaching towards the real probabilities, but with even extra gameplay, this could get months to gather from several accounts. Therefore, I would start trusting any statistics with more than 1000 instances, however knowing that the probabilities can still move a bit up or down.
If you look at my data points, you will see that cumulatively, we have opened ~1700 boss chests. In other words, mimic rate of ~10% should be pretty reliable (again with the ± 1% range). However, if you look at the next one (mimic chest), we have only opened a 166 of them. In other words, hoard mimic appearance rate will have much more variance compared to the reality. It could be essentially anywhere between 10-25%, this requires much more instances to be opened. Finally, the rate for hoard mimic drop is completely bogus at this point (only 18 chests that are opened). We already know this since drop rate is definitely not 0%, there are multiple people reporting it 
Hope that helps. In other words, you read the current rates correctly, but you need to understand that except the mimic rate, the rest should be taken with a grain of salt.
6 Likes
Yeah, I know it’s not completely accurate, how could it be. But it’s one of the rare lists I’ve seen including multiple accounts, so it will do for now. Oh, and thanks for keeping track, I really don’t have the mind for that stuff!
1 Like
I got it on release night. (before the ninja nerf?)
I started farming immediately after the patch released. 3-4 hours, 1 normal mimic, 2 5X mimic.
1 Like
I think the higher lv the lower chance to got the Hoard Mimic many lv under 1800 already got it
some of my friends for lv 1800+ none of them got the Mimic
please check the leaderboard for the week even several lv1800+ player still 1099/1100 only one player over 1800 got it
With respect, any data is misleading when drops are based on RNG. In addition, the RNG is effectively stacked because of the chance aspect of a mimic fight from the standard boss chest followed by a chance aspect of a mythic mimic fight thereafter. Its one of those things that will happen or it won’t (possibly ever) and grinding has no effect on your chances. RNG and probability are mutually exclusive and once you realise and understand that, any stresses or frustrations you feel should dissipate
Sure thing. Since this is gnome week, I and my friends are rarely doing E12. We still do a bit of E10 and I will update the data at some point but I hope to get back to this next week.
The chase continues.
3 Likes
Thanks for collating this data. But we’re going to need a much larger data set.
1 Like
This makes no sense whatsoever, at least for a good – i.e. unbiased – RNG.
3 Likes
Finally got the hoard mimic!
I will update my rates sometime next week (likely) but got it through a E9 boss (that turned into of course a L150 fight). I think my rate was very close to 1/20 (5%, i.e., 1 drop out of 20 hoard mimic chests opened).
8 Likes
Congrats Finally…
It gives me a tiny hope that I will get it one day. I only have 1 hoard mimic chest so far (at 374th boss chest)
3 Likes
Thanks! and regardless of what’s being told, just keep grinding. That’s essentially almost always the most efficient method I have found I am sure you are already doing this, but e.g., this week, I have given up running E1 for regular gnome hunts (still run E1 for GaPs) and switched it with E9 for both boosting trophies and getting a better chance on hoard mimic mythic. At the end, it worked! One can argue that it was a bad decision since in the long run I am destined to get the hoard mimic, but gnome week(end)s are limited, but sometimes you need variety, I am sure you would agree.
So, good luck to you as well. I am rooting for you!
3 Likes
10 hours a day since Monday, explore 5 and 12. 10k trophies this week. Multiple 5x chests with no mythic. Anyone saying the got the mythic fast or “on their first battle” IS LYING