Direct response requested to targeting of Gem/Cosmic Dragons or duplicate protection

Bumping as well. Just pulled my 28th dragon. Still no eklipsos. If dragons were just capped at 4 copies like guild guardians I would have 4 of each and Stella by now.

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Technically, the promise was “we will look into it” so if a decision-maker said “no” then that was that.

True. I think an update on the issue at any point in the last 18 months would have appeased a lot of people. It’s the silence that’s frustrating.

4 Likes

Let’s crunch the numbers.

We assume an equal weighting of 1 in 6 for getting any specific gem or cosmic dragon.

Each draw is independent of all draws before and after; if you have 30 Topasarth and zero Emeraldrin, your odds of drawing either one is still an unweighted 1 in 6.

Now let’s expand.

Below is a chart showing how many total eggs drawn, along with the probability of having an incomplete set after that many draws, with the likelihood also expressed as “1 in x” chances.

For a lot of people this is counterintuitive, so let’s hop around and interpret a few of these numbers.

Lots of people would hope for a full set after 6 draws, but this will only happen for a lucky 1.5% of participants, or about 1 person in 65.

After 12-13 draws, around half the playerbase will claim a full set, and around half will still be missing one or more dragons.

Going forward, I need to mention: These are not magical, secret formulae. IP2/505 is just as capable of calculating these odds as anyone else.

This means there are only two possibilities: either they’re aware of this probability spread, or they’re deliberately ignorant of it by way of not bothering to look.

Either way, the fact that the devs STILL haven’t implemented a way to fill the gaps, means one thing: they’re perfectly fine with this.

They’re perfectly fine knowing 10% of their players will still be missing a full set after 22-23 draws (more than 10,000 dragonite).

They’re perfectly happy seeing one in every 100 players drawing 35 dragons, spending 17,500 dragonite (19,250 for cosmic), without the satisfaction of completing their set.

They’re perfectly content depriving one in 1000 players of a full set after 48 draws, and one in 10,000 after 60 draws.

I doubt there are even 150,000 active players, but if some unlucky soul hits that 1 in 145,000 chance to draw 75 eggs without finishing a full set, they KNEW this could happen and they’re FINE with it.

I can only assume their moon logic is that, rather than players getting demoralized enough by these absurd milestones to quit, the devs somehow think their longest-suffering players will take leave of their senses and start handing over cash instead.

And no matter how badly the odds screw you trying to finish one set, at the end of the tunnel you’ve got another set just waiting to do the same thing to you again.

IP2/505 should be absolutely ashamed to have dropped not one, but two systems where utterly screwing a blameless portion of their playerbase is a statistical guarantee.

24 Likes

@mgmt Thanks for this chart. I already knew the math on this and knew I was extremely lucky on my gem dragons (all 6 dragons, only 7 eggs.) I also knew that my current saga of duplicate hell on the cosmic dragons is more in line with average luck.

But having a visual aid really helps. Knowing that I could be looking at 4.5 more years of this, makes it much easier to give up hope. lol

This shows that the mean total time to get all six results is
Screenshot_20240609~2
Source
Coupon collector's problem - Wikipedia
:student:

3 Likes