Bumping as well. Just pulled my 28th dragon. Still no eklipsos. If dragons were just capped at 4 copies like guild guardians I would have 4 of each and Stella by now.
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Technically, the promise was “we will look into it” so if a decision-maker said “no” then that was that.
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True. I think an update on the issue at any point in the last 18 months would have appeased a lot of people. It’s the silence that’s frustrating.
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Let’s crunch the numbers.
We assume an equal weighting of 1 in 6 for getting any specific gem or cosmic dragon.
Each draw is independent of all draws before and after; if you have 30 Topasarth and zero Emeraldrin, your odds of drawing either one is still an unweighted 1 in 6.
Now let’s expand.
Below is a chart showing how many total eggs drawn, along with the probability of having an incomplete set after that many draws, with the likelihood also expressed as “1 in x” chances.
For a lot of people this is counterintuitive, so let’s hop around and interpret a few of these numbers.
Lots of people would hope for a full set after 6 draws, but this will only happen for a lucky 1.5% of participants, or about 1 person in 65.
After 12-13 draws, around half the playerbase will claim a full set, and around half will still be missing one or more dragons.
Going forward, I need to mention: These are not magical, secret formulae. IP2/505 is just as capable of calculating these odds as anyone else.
This means there are only two possibilities: either they’re aware of this probability spread, or they’re deliberately ignorant of it by way of not bothering to look.
Either way, the fact that the devs STILL haven’t implemented a way to fill the gaps, means one thing: they’re perfectly fine with this.
They’re perfectly fine knowing 10% of their players will still be missing a full set after 22-23 draws (more than 10,000 dragonite).
They’re perfectly happy seeing one in every 100 players drawing 35 dragons, spending 17,500 dragonite (19,250 for cosmic), without the satisfaction of completing their set.
They’re perfectly content depriving one in 1000 players of a full set after 48 draws, and one in 10,000 after 60 draws.
I doubt there are even 150,000 active players, but if some unlucky soul hits that 1 in 145,000 chance to draw 75 eggs without finishing a full set, they KNEW this could happen and they’re FINE with it.
I can only assume their moon logic is that, rather than players getting demoralized enough by these absurd milestones to quit, the devs somehow think their longest-suffering players will take leave of their senses and start handing over cash instead.
And no matter how badly the odds screw you trying to finish one set, at the end of the tunnel you’ve got another set just waiting to do the same thing to you again.
IP2/505 should be absolutely ashamed to have dropped not one, but two systems where utterly screwing a blameless portion of their playerbase is a statistical guarantee.
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@mgmt Thanks for this chart. I already knew the math on this and knew I was extremely lucky on my gem dragons (all 6 dragons, only 7 eggs.) I also knew that my current saga of duplicate hell on the cosmic dragons is more in line with average luck.
But having a visual aid really helps. Knowing that I could be looking at 4.5 more years of this, makes it much easier to give up hope. lol
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This shows that the mean total time to get all six results is
Source
Coupon collector's problem - Wikipedia
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I feel your pain so much. Im still missing 3 dragons yet i have gotten 5 Purple Dragons in a row. It is beyond demoralizing
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Tengan cuidado y no critiquen mucho por tanto como el desarrollador @k como el @J cuando no les gusta algo dan BAN , ya en este foro no hay libertad de expresion , en cuanto alguien pobe algo fuerte te sensuran! Eata gente no esta a la altura. No les importa los jugadorea.
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I’m not sure that they do not care about the players, but I do think that there is no one taking the responsibility of communicating with the players in place of @kafka who I hope is not absent for reasons of ill-health.
The pretend deadline of 2023 to do something about the dragon eggs came and went and with it the likelihood of anything happening because (i) at this point, would it be fair on players who already have more than 4 dragons per color because there would not be any compensation of that scale; and (ii) the effort to implement it does not benefit the parent company financially. It might foster some good-will from the players, but it would only be a short-term gain before complaining about the next thing took its place so perhaps it’s not a good enough use of developers’ time.
This isn’t what players want to read which is why we haven’t seen it, and although I have no facts to base this assumption upon, aside from the pattern of only releasing monetised updates, it’s what the lengthy radio silence on this topic suggests to me (but I’d be happier to be proven wrong).
Any effort now is hopefully focused on returning the game to a stable-footing because each new bug release hampers the ability to provide smoother updates down the line. Then, what the game needs is an update that attracts more players than it loses.
Fingers crossed, eh.
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I mean how hard would it be to destroy extra dragons into “dragon dust” in the soul forge and then put a “3 dragon dust to make 1 of any kind of entry level dragon you want”?
Even Diablo 4 has a crafting system for recycling 4 Uber Uniques into any Uber Unique that a person may want and Diablo 4’s Cosmetic Store is overpriced as hell.
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I don’t think the challenge is with the code required, rather that it lies with budget and justification for the change in a climate where the parent company is looking to slim things down to reduce costs.
Making too much money guys. Don’t need do anything. Too many people spending too much weekly on anything, means they only need to keep making more ways to make money.
See spoilers.
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I like your comparison to Diablo 4. I avoid blizzard like the plague now, as I have a bad history with them. Some gaming corporations use community managers as a scapegoat to cover up their poor decisions. The uncivil discourse with the community manager, Brady Camel was unforgivable, as she refused to partake in their frat boy like torment, and she had to do things like meticulous website management as punishment.
I hope that Kafka is alright, as she has gotten ill sometimes. Maybe the developers can actually respond to the state of the game and actually come out of hiding? It’s never going to happen, but I like to throw a rock as far as I can into the ocean sometimes…
@Nimhain maybe?
Hi all, I will follow up on this again before the weekend.
We have a bit going on at the moment and I’ve already asked for the PVP meta to be looked at sooner rather than later so we may not have a status update for this until sometime next week (hopefully anyway!).
I am sorry that this has dragged on.
Also sorry I haven’t been around as much lately. I needed to shift my attention to other tasks but Bramble and I had a discussion about how we can share the communications about feedback and other general - non-bug related things more between the 2 of us to help us both balance our time more efficiently and make sure the feedback will get more consistent communication on it, because even when it was mostly me handling it my consistency was a problem (as I’m sure you would all agree with).
We appreciate your patience while we get into the swing of our new processes <3
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Are you sure you are posting in the correct thread? This one is about Gem Dragons, from beginning of this year, asking for a status update on direct crafting supposed to have become available last year. I mean, I’m sure a lot of the community would be excited to finally hear something back, and before the weekend to boot. It just feels unwise to expect anything except a mistake after getting ignored for so long.
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If this is code for “I didn’t know if I’d have a job here for a minute cuz of that #corporatelyfe so I was kinda prepping my own house now that it’s semi-confirmed I’m not sacked imma get back on it” - been there 
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You had me reading up to make sure I’d posted in the correct place as I do open multiple tabs for threads I need to reply to, but yes this is correct! I just wanted to give context as to what the team is focusing on first which currently the biggest priority point is PVP feedback.
I did talk about the Gem/Cosmic Dragon targetting with the team yesterday but unfortunately, nothing has moved up yet I’m afraid. This is still very much on the to do list and on the radar, but it’s not currently planned to be a part of the next game update v8.0, and I have no ETA to share on it yet.
I will keep bringing it up as one of the main points of ongoing feedback so that we can hope to get it bumped up in priority. I know it’s been a long wait and more waiting to come, but the silver lining is that it’s something that has been agreed with, so now it’s just a final hurdle of where can we put this in the schedule. We’ll stay ontop of it.
Also McDoubleDad, no thankfully that wasn’t the case! You’re stuck with me 
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Hi Kafka,
It seems like it would be reasonably easy to copy and paste the 4x duplicate protection code from guild guardians as part of the 8.0 update. A more fleshed out fix could always be implemented later, or never.
I’m at 36 eggs crafted at a cost of tens of thousands of gems. On top of that, I’ve been unable to play the best meta team for the past year because the game has decided I don’t deserve to.
I know some will say this is intentional to drain gems and spur spending, but players in my situation are so angry that they’re never going to give their money to a game like this. It’s just pointless and antagonizing and costing you real money.
Anyway, thanks for asking about it again. I still think they’re just giving you and us the runaround. They could have added duplicate protection at any time in the last 2 years, and still could.
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…but it would also be one of the LEAST effective gem sinks in the game, since the Boss Dungeon offer is time-gated to “only” 300 Gems / day.
If this is accurate, then at least it qualifies as a major (public-facing) update to the situation.