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But how can this be proved without seeing the algorithm? From a practical point of view, on console (Xbox), all top players that provide an opinion agree that the AI cascades have changed in their favour. This is supported by a considerable drop in win rates over the last period.
One sequence that is common includes going on a win streak then suffering a number of losses, e.g. win 40 in a row then lose 5 in a row by obliteration.
Separately, the original poster got frustrated, it can happen to anyone, some replies were unnecessary.
I absolutely think the level of āpoisonsā trolling is incredibly low on this site in comparison to most sites both currently, and over my years online (more than the OP). Specifically on the gemsofwar.com forum in a year and a half, Iāve only been subjected to TWO posters where they went over the line from strong disagreement to personal attacks/insults/abusive comments. The first later got himself baned, and the second based on the interaction with me and others has some underlying issues but Iām not an expert on the DSM-5 to properly diagnose.
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It canāt be proven at all. However, statistical analysis can determine whether a predictor is accurate to within a tolerance (given a sufficient sample size), which is what I meant to indicate.
But this is biased information, and controlled data gathering is required to reduce those biases to the point where the results are statistically significant.
Yes, and this is frequently how random number sequences work, as well. They donāt guarantee a uniform distribution of results over a small sample set.
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A couple of questions.
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You said that āAI cascades changed in their favourā and that there was a drop in win rates. I donāt follow how more cascades in their favour would reduce their win rate. Can you clarify?
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Does this ālast periodā coincide (even partially) with the introduction of Kingdom events? Given that the game has recently introduced 25 and 50% stat bonuses for troops which have been flooding PVP defences, I would expect a decrease in win rates, only because a significant number of battles are measurably more difficult to win now. That is consistent with my experience, where I have dropped from about a 96-97% win rate most weeks down to about 94%. I feel like I lose a few more battles every week due to ābad luckā, but only because these battles are longer and there are more opportunities for a well designed defence team to get a lucky streak going.
Iām not sure where all the top XBox players provided these opinions that youāre talking about, but this ātopā PS4 player hasnāt seen any change in gem-refresh behaviour. Thatās just my opinion, though.
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You do understand that just before Guild Wars the developers wasted a few days running tests disproving the opposite. The āopinionā in that thread was that the drops were rigged against the player.
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Yes, I was being quite rhetorical. It cannot be proved but feedback and dropped win rates is probably the best information available to us.
My point on how the sequence of wins/losses occur was to demonstrate that the algorithm could be improved.
@Stan the cascades have dropped in the AIās favour, relative to how it was in days past, that is the popular consensus. Edit: ādroppedā was a poor choice of wordā¦ they increased.
@Strat Yes, I am aware.
I win 3 fewer matches per week due to
And now i feel
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You are quite immature.
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Birch are dead you should change your logo
@Rickygervais āDeadā isnt the word I would use. We changed name, and are stronger than ever.
I have switched from our high level guild āUnrepentantā to a new and climbing sister guild āAbaddonā, where Guild Wars is optional. I watched the AI when I mana denied red from itās 4xScale Guards Paragon team just now matchx4 8 times until it got a red match on the boardā¦some funny business going on in the background.
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@trickycdr did u win?
Anyway good luck
I wonder if people having problem with cascades are using troops that change color of gems or create gems at random. That is when most big cascades happen. Take one color out and cascades are more likely.
I think it just a few people who donāt like GW at all, it just that the complainers will always speak up and people who like it donāt take the time to come to the official board to say they are enjoying it.
Most changes are based on data the Devs gather from the game, not based on comments on forums. The same as any on-line game.
This board has been one of the best I been a part of. Go take a look at Overwatch board for a bit if you want to see bad.
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I think thatās part of it. There are so many different ways to affect the board and so many different play styles combined with the different personalities of players that there can be great discrepancies with how players interpret what GoW is doing. Throw some RNG in the mix and itās no wonder people have such varying experiences.
Even within my guild, playing with the exact same teams, results can be drastically different just based off the other factors. Itās part of what makes this game great but also can lead to frustration in those that donāt know how to modify the variables they can control to have a better play experience.
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35/0 so far, but becoming more of a chore than funā¦may not bother next weekā¦I think if the Devs picked the teams I would play, but seeing someone put up DK Kerb FG Kerb makes me want to reach through my monitorā¦well you get the point.
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While I donāt agree that the forum is poisonous, I am quitting after this week as well.
In part because of guild wars, in part because of other problems with the game, in part because Iāve just gotten bored of the same thing for over a year of playing and in part because there hasnāt been an update I cared about since Queen Mab era.
Iāll be waiting and watching behind the scenes. Missing out on my collectionā¦ oh gosh maybe Iāll just quit for good with how hard it is to catch up if you take a break.
Tell ya what, crafting better be good lol
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