Just popping in to let you know that we ran tests as well as checked the code. I have been speaking to the team further and requested that we run another set of simulated drops just in case.
As far as we can see, from checking the code and the tests we have already run, they are dropping as intended. As many people have mentioned earlier, there is also a strong bias towards RNG, and the evidence in this thread is purely anecdotal.
Could we possibly know the drop rate of Epic Vault keys?
We only know that itās 10% of Xā¦ But X is unknown to the community.
What about the multiple orbs or troops dropping? I thought that wasnāt suppose to happen?
Thank you for following up on this! Sorry for the unwarranted negativity by some people in these threads; most of us really just wanted to know if it was working.
If the code isnāt changed, one thing that might head off future frustration is making some gnome tracker levels reward epic keys. Maybe the 25 and 50 levels. I played pretty obsessively last weekend and barely broke 50 (hundreds of gnomes), so it wouldnāt affect net rewards very much but would let people try out the exciting new thing.
Perhaps this can be solved with a few simple question:
Did the rate quoted in the original post of 10% apply to during a gnome event weekend or not? Does the rate of Epic Vault Keys during a vault event weekend increase at a rate proportional to the increase of normal vault key drops?
I noticed every response so far has said āas intendedā while conspicuously withholding exactly how much āintendedā is. You already gave out a rate with the patch notes, even though it is thrown out as a rough number that is in proportion to another number that was never officially stated, it is that ratio that does not align with data (which is why there are claims of it being āwrongā rather than just ātoo rareā), being off by a large rate on the relative scale over a large number of samples.
See also:
Which is far less anecdotal than people throwing around āI got oneā versus āI didnātā in this thread. Can provide math if necessary.
The epic vault key rate not being increased by a vault weekend modifier actually sounds pretty believable, and would explain why the tests arenāt picking up on the problem - if thereās a problem. Vault keys are extraordinarily rare outside of a vault weekend, so epic keys would be too.
They simply need to check the total # of vault keys dropped for everyone during the weekend and the total # of epic vault keys. It should look something close to 10:1 if the 10% rate in the patch notes is to be believed. Iām convinced itās far closer to 100:1 or only 1%.
Yeah, I wouldnāt mind hearing that this was checked (even if not disclosed, since I get that itās sensitive info).
had similiar situations few months back ā 6 respawns
So yeah, he sometimes likes to troll.
on the other hand, i sometimes have quadra kills with skeleton key (and raising shadows on top of it), soā¦ it kind of balances itā¦
so if, vault keys drop rates are increased in vault weekend
and epic vault keys drop rates arenāt
we should search if 1:30 vault keys drops is an epic vault keyā¦
Letās look on that from pure mathematics perspective.
If of all drops of Vault Keys, Epic Vault Keys drops in 10% cases and normal Vault Keys drops in 90% cases (and thatās what community thinks is stated in the patch notes) then:
From all players who got 10 vault keys from gnomes (not from tracker):
34.87% should get 0 Epic Vault Keys
38.74% should get 1 Epic Vault Key
26.39% should get 2 or more Epic Vault Keys.
From all players who got 20 vault keys from gnomes (not from tracker):
12.16% should get 0 Epic Vault Keys
27.02% should get 1 Epic Vault Key
60.82% should get 2 or more Epic Vault Keys.
Is anyone heard of the player which got multiple epic vault keys? I donāt know anyone.
Almost all players from my guild and many others fall in the category āgot 0 Epic Vault keysā, few players got 1 Epic Vault Key.
Where is that huge percentage of players with multiple Epic Vault Keys?
Youāre omitting one thing in your calculations: Vault Keys drop chance is increased during Vault Weekend. And probably Epic Vault Keys drop chances arenāt.
@Saltypatra Could you confirm/deny that statement?
if thatās the case, @Neritar you could do your math againā¦
Nobodyās given a straight answer for how much Vault events increase the key drop rate - in fact, the official support page uses the phrasing "During this time the chance of Treasure Gnomes appearing increases and, therefore, so does the chances of earning a Vault Key as you can encounter more Gnomes. " which alludes to getting more keys ONLY proportional to seeing more gnomes.
But letās take the most extreme combination to produce the lowest epic-to-normal chance - assuming
These together give an epic key as a proportion of all keys ratio during vault weekends of
1 Ć· 31 = 3.23% (1 epic key to 30 normal keys === 1 of every 31 keys are epic)
Letās round this down further to 3% for brevity to push the narrative further
We can use https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
For players getting X keys, this Y % of them will get Z epic keys from that X total at 3% chance
10 keys:
ā 74% should get 0 epic keys
ā 23% should get 1 epic key
ā 3% should get 2 or more epic keys
20 keys:
ā 54% should get 0 epic keys
ā 34% should get 1 epic key
ā 12% should get 2 or more epic keys
50 keys:
ā 22% still get 0 epic keys
ā 34% should get 1 epic key
ā 26% should get 2 or more epic keys
The fact of the matter is that of the top 50 guilds, none are stepping forward with reports of 1/4 of members enjoying seeing an epic vault key. (I stand to be corrected, Iām not that well connected 
)
Maths aside
ā there are expectations that havenāt been met, whether due to miscommunication, typo, bug or possibly massive bad luck for most players
ā the outcome is mathematically possible, not probable, but possible. Letās leave that on the table and exit the topic letting everyone keep their dignity
ā the concern has been raised with community managers, and both have taken to the company (or devs), and they have responded officially. This is where the official story could likely end, and re-raising the concern repetitively and badgering the community managers is not cool! Donāt shoot the messenger
Acknowledge the new world of +20% treasure 
, new daemon gnome, pity keys 
, and possibility of epic vault keys 
, and be thankful for the surprise extra vault weekend 
(itās a game not a job, nobody held a gun to your head to do anything with it)
Wait for the next vault event and letās revisit the topic.
This is, regrettably, a well-documented common occurrence in how this company communicates.
But this is the problem the stats-nerd players are trying to fix. There is a clear disconnect between whatās been promised (10%) and whatās actually happened in game (~1%). Any statement of āit worked as intendedā just means the devs havenāt found the problem, and implies that theyāve stopped looking.
The devs need to either correct the promise or the code. Waiting until the next vault event just means we get another weekend of disappointment from (as you rightly say) an otherwise fun update, before we collect even more statistics and hopefully the devs then take some action.
Iād like some action before that, even if itās just an admission that 10% was a complete miscommunication or an indication that theyāre still looking at why barely anyone got an Epic Key even though we spent all weekend grinding full of hope and aspiration.
This sums it up in a nutshell. Everything seems to be over complicating something which in reality should be really as simple as this. Over a small sample size the percentage could vary, but taking all player stats over the gnome weekend should really be a large enough sample size to determine a fairly accurate result.
it seems likely to me that the ā10%ā comment was for epic key drop from gnomes un-modified by the vault weekend. Chance for regular vault keys is boosted during vault event, but chance for epic keys is not. So, consider all the vault keys youāve found outside of a vault event. In the future, 1/10th of those will be epics. In my case, I think over ~15 months of several hours per day, Iāve found maybe 5 keys not-during-vault-weekends? So, 1 epic vault key per 3 years, give or take? ā¦ Seems consistent with the drop rate for imperial deeds, anyway 
Yeah, this is very concerning. Iām almost level 1400, and Iāve found fewer than 10 vault keys outside of a vault event. If epic key rarity wasnāt increased during vault weekends, they functionally donāt exist.
Of course, this is all speculation; as people have pointed out, there are many ways this could be coded slightly incorrectly, or it could be correct and weāre all crazy. We really need confirmation of the key/epic key numbers from the event. I think itāll put a lot of minds at ease either way.
stats from 100 players are still a āsmall sample sizeā compared to numbers of active GoW playersā¦ 
might be too small
With 100 players averaging 10 keys each, youād expect 100/1000 epic keys (assuming that thereās a 10% chance that a key is replaced with an epic key - it may be coded differently). Under these hypotheses:
Thereās about a 15% chance of seeing 90 or fewer epic keys.
Thereās about a 1.8% chance of seeing 80 or fewer epic keys.
The random online calculator Iām using doesnāt have enough significant figures for 50 or fewer keys; it should basically never happen.
You can make very high confidence claims with fairly modest sample sizes.
In any case, looking at a count of all keys dropped, as was suggested, should make it an open and shut case.