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Token of Cedric, drop rate awry?

Thanks @ChunkyMono , after that was mentioned I figured out how to check and verified I was on normal mode.

1 Like

Gaard 67
Yasmine 90
Cedric 168
Aranaea 50
Anu 16
Nysha 9 (my first nysha medal)

Cedric = 168 (42%)
All others = 232 (58%)

435 collected at L12

70 (16%) Gaard
99 (23%) Yasmine
182 (42%) Cedric
54 (12%) Aranaea
23 (5.2%) Anu
7 (1.6%) Nysha

219 at difficulty 12:

Count Percentage
Gaard: 29 Tokens (Common) 13.2%
Yasmine: 36 Tokens (Rare) 16.4%
Cedric: 101 Tokens (Ultra-Rare) 46.1%
Aranaea: 33 Tokens (Epic) 15.1%
Anu: 11 Tokens (Legendary) 5.0%
Nysha: 9 Tokens (Mythic) 4.1%

LOL I haven’t even equipped anything yet, except that forced Cedric token/badge.

I decided to compile the data of everyone doing big sets (going upward from the bottom up to Neritars set, avoiding duplicates)

Total Samples: 2393

Submitter C R U E L M
Voq 29 36 101 33 11 9
HugeOgre 70 99 182 54 23 7
Fleg 67 90 168 50 16 9
TheIdleOne 33 48 67 13 6 7
Avathar 22 18 40 16 2 0
Clark 12 7 34 10 8 0
Mithran 24 43 70 21 9 2
Laenir 22 34 45 11 6 2
Redi1 41 70 93 27 7 12
Shimrra 8 13 28 5 2 1
Neritar 82 78 166 44 26 4
TOTALS 410 536 994 284 116 53
AVG% 17.13% 22.40% 41.54% 11.87% 4.85% 2.21%
Drop Rate Esimate (95% CL) 15.62%~19.12% 20.73%~24.59% 39.56%~44.13% 10.57%~13.57% 3.99%~5.98% 1.63%~2.99%

If the rates of Cedrics aren’t intended to drop ~40%+, then something is probably wrong, since we are fairly confident they do. We have a 99.9999% confidence level that the true rate of cedrics token drops falls between about 36.5% and 46.5% based on our sample size, so if the “true rate” is supposed to be anything lower than 36%, well, something is absolutely wrong.

However…

We can’t know if something is wrong based on this because we don’t know how it is supposed to be. Not likely this will result in a change for the better if it is wrong and it does get noticed… but, based on other stuff that has flown under the radar for ridiculous lengths of time, I think drop rate discussions are on auto-filter for all the staff unless they are directly reported as a bug. And its not going to be me for this one, I don’t feel like having to lobby just for what would, best case, probably result in a nerf, and worst case, be wasted effort. Nysha numbers look depressing, but probably intentionally so.

4 Likes

I am okay with Cedric (ultra-rare) dropping more often than Gaard (common) or Yasmine (rare). When upgrading troops, you can use any medal of a higher rarity to guarantee success at any of the three eliteness tiers. I upgraded my Tigraki Warrior on a whim, and I used a Medal of Cedric for gold rather than the three Medals of Yasmine it would have otherwise taken to hit 100% upgrade chance.

We know that eventually kingdom power levels will require upgraded troops, so I am quite happy if the game showers us with ultra-rare medals in place of common/rare medals that are effective on fewer troops.

Now, with all that said, I do think the rate of Epic and higher needs to be adjusted. 2% chance for a token of Nysha means that almost* nobody will be upgrading mythic troops.

*I am sure there are some users dedicated enough to grinding that they can earn the 6 Medals of Nysha needed to upgrade their mythic troop. But they are a minority of a minority.

4 Likes

The rarer they make Nysha medals the more people will buy the inevitable flash offers. I really truly hate this type of ftp sales model.

2 Likes

Cedric: 17
Gaard: 10
Yasmine: 5
Aranaea: 2