This dont seem me exciting, this make me angry maybe. The Soul Forge is a way for have new mythic who need different resources like diamonds instead keys needed for open the chests. Also in Soul Forge the mythic is not free: then i ask to convert all my keys into diamond. I like very much the Soulforge than treasure chests. If there no way to have Pity Timer, then Soul Forge need give the chioce to convert the keys of treasure chests into gems and diamonds for all players who want spend all their resources in Soul Forge. So i want convert all my keys into diamonds and gems for craft all my mythic here in the Soul Forge. I want no more to use my keys for open the chests. I want this choice.
It will never happen. If they gave everything away the game wouldnât have any paying customers and eventually it would either just shut down or have to add advertisements. If you have patience and save up your diamonds (make sure to do the daily dungeons, join a guild that completes the task, etc.) youâll be able to obtain all the Mythics. It just takes time and patience. As someone who has both an end player account (PC/mobile) and a newbie account (Xbox) I can speak for both sides of the spectrum when I say it is perfectly fine the way it is.
I have been playing for 3 (4?) years, and I am still missing around 15 Mythics (and the freaking Imp of Love) because I just havenât crafted and/or pulled them yet. Striving to complete my ranks is what keeps me playing.
If Soul Forge give this choice, the players can buy keys like now or diamonds, the choice is of the players. The profit for the devs come in everyway. The keys is a more fast way to find mythics but with risk, diamonds is a more slow way but with certainy to have mythics and the choice depends of players. In that way is reasonable give the chance to convert the keys into a balanced amount of diamonds and gems like from choice of players in the game, so this dont change much in the game. If this happen, this is a good new in the game for me and for all players who think like me. Like Pity Timer. Pity Timer or more choice in Soul Forge.
Sorry for your bad luck man, i also spend resources like you and didnt get the new mythic neither others before⌠It really sucks that lady luck doesnt favour me when i open chests.
That being said, i dont agree with your request, chance should be chance, and when you have bad luck, well it sucks but its the way it is.
Anyways, wish you luck with your request!
Each key you use has an independent probability⌠so, your chances do not build up the more keys you use. You just have that small probability of getting it many more times.
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Yeah, this interacts weirdly though, because we do open keys in bulk.
If I open 1,000 keys, each key has the same chance of getting a mythic. But since I tried 1,000 times I can pretend it is one trial with a higher probability.
The original post definitely had a bad explanation but was on the right track. Opening 10,000 keys may be 90%. Opening 400 keys may be 5%. That doesnât mean opening 10,000 then 400 is 95%. You can treat it like opening 10,400 keys, which is probably closer to 91%.
Itâs still very frustrating to lose 90% chances. Thatâs the valid point here. This is a game where we get so many âtriesâ at low probability events we end up seeing the âbad luckâ numbers way more than we think is ârightâ. It makes the stakes higher. 10k gem keys is a few months of hoarding.
It isnât good for the game to remind us it expects us to work for months to get trinkets in return. But lately Iâve seen this as âOh well, at least there is Soulforge.â
Megalodon almost entirely cleaned out my gem stash. I spent all my accumulated guild seals (15k+) and gem keys (1200+) and still bought 200 VIP chests before I got one. I only have enough gems left on my account for one 50-pack of VIP chests, which means missing next monthâs mythic is a real possibility. Statistically, 100 VIP chests âshouldâ give a mythic and I had to spend twice that much. Iâve only ever had to dump resources to this degree for one other mythic and it was very frustrating both times.
In spite of the frustration, I still donât believe we need a pity timer. This game is fundamentally based on randomness for obtaining new troops. As others have said, we have the Soulforge. We have the method that guarantees us the ability to craft our choice of mythic troops every couple months for free, or incrementally faster for spending gems, or even faster for spending real money. Spending premium resources or cash to speed things up is very common in F2P games and regardless of my commentary regarding the new gem-sink-y-ness of the game, I think the Soulforge in its current state is fine as-is.
If a âpity timerâ were ever to be implemented, I can see one of two things happening:
- Troop drop rates are lowered across the board to make up for them being guaranteed after a given number of attempts. So instead of a mythic being 1:1000 from a Gem chest, it could be 1:2000 or 1:2500.
- The required number of attempts to trigger a pity timer would be set astronomically high so that realistically no player will ever be affected by it. You are angry about spending 15,000 chests? Imagine needing to spend 30,000 chests before the timer helps you.
Neither of these results would offer any benefit to the players. Thatâs the key point.
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I agree. The devs are happy with payout chances as they are, so any inclusion of a guaranteed payoff will come at a tradeoff of lowered odds elsewhere.
Itâs frustrating to lose when the odds are heavily in your favor, but on the flipside, sometimes you get a Mythic in 50 glory keys. Itâs not a thing I think will ever be changed, considering (as others have pointed out) Soulforge is a thing.
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Iâm sorry, Iâm having trouble with the math. Iâm not an end game player. Iâm a high level early game player with easily the worst luck of pulling a troop of anyone youâll ever meet. Correct me if Iâm wrong but you can only spend 200 keys at a time, right? This puts your odds of pull a Mythic from gem chests around 10% by spending 200 keys. The next 200 you spend does not increase your odds to 20%. itâs a whole new spin of the wheel with a separate 10%. This makes it impossible to ever have a 95% chance at anything.
I agree with most that a pity timer would cause more harm than good. However, I would like the ability to spend 500 gem keys at a time to increase my probability.
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As mentioned above, every key has an independent probability. So opening 500 keys at a time is the same as opening 1 key 500 times
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I didnât realize that. That means applied probabilities are worse than posted. There is no physical way to increase your probability or hedge your bet if you will. If this is true then anytime a mythic is pulled itâs a statistical anomaly.
Hold onâŚYou literally have a 1 in a million chance at pulling a mythic anytime you spend gem keys. Thatâs worse odds than winning $50,000 in Powerball on a single ticket. The frequency of success does not correspond with what youâre saying.
Iâm off topicâŚI know. Would someone please point me in the right direction so I can fix my brain?
ErâŚno.
Yes, theyâre independent, but think of a gem key as flipping a (extremely weighted) coin. 999 times it lands heads, 1 time tails.
Flip it once. 99.9% of the time you get heads. Success (a tails) is 0.1%
Flip it twice, 99.9% you get heads on the first flip, 99.9% on the second flip. That means 1-(.999*.999) = 99.8% of the time there are two heads. Success (a tails) then is 0.2% of the time.
Once you get to 50 flips, now youâre at 4.7% success.
200? 17.5% success
etcâŚ
Up to about 3100, where youâre up to 95% success.
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Oh dear. This one again. @Maferath your opening post was clear enough. You arenât going to get closer to the devs doing this, or make any friends on the forum, by arguing back against every single post that disagrees with youâŚ
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The chance of pulling a mythic from 1 gem chest is actually 0.00096, or 1 in 1042. Not that low if you ask me, considering its not terribly hard to accumulate gem keys if youre in a decent guild.
You can check out the actual odds at https://www.taransworld.com/Chest/
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This is exactly what I was looking forâŚthank you!
âŚthe pub is a close 2ndâŚreal close
Yes, you can only pull 200 keys at a time. Probabilities go together in interesting ways. We can add together a lot of trials and figure out the probability for the whole shebang.
Think about flipping a coin. 50/50 it will be heads or tails.
Now think about flipping it 100 times. Intuitively, you expect nearly a 50/50 divide. It turns out itâs the same if you flip two coins 50 times each, or 10 coins 10 times each.
So opening 1,000 keys one at a time will produce the same expected number of mythics as opening 1,000 keys in 5 groups of 200 or 1,000 keys all at once. But the devs wonât let us do 1,000 keys for some reason.
Itâs just easier and more convenient to look at the results for opening 10k chests. Most of the time we look at that to answer, âIf I spend all of my keys, will I even have a decent chance of getting this troop?â
For me Iâd always take a 90%, but itâs tempered by, âDo I really want to spend 10k keys getting there.â For Megavore, I felt spendy. For Gargantuar, Iâd save my keys.
Just to explain why Iâve been confused. Many of you have probably heard of what some call the gamblerâs dilemma. Think of a roulette wheel. If you have $1 and put it on the same number and play a dollar every time you can calculate the probability as you are doing of when you should expect it to hit. Itâs similar to the weighted coin flip in terms of probability. For that to work in this situation a 200 key purchase would have to factor as one unit as I had originally assumed.
However, if each key is its own unique probability that changes the formula. Itâs the same roulette wheel, but instead of keeping the same number you have to switch every spin. If every turn is truly unique then you have the same 1 in 1042 chance no matter how many keys you open.
Most players in this forum seem dont like Pity Timer. Ok, then i ask to change my keys into diamonds in the Soul Forge. This seem a good request now? If i dont want to open more chests, can i have this choice in the game or even this is prohibited for some reason? I am tired to spend MORE THAN 15000 KEYS for open useless chests. 15000 Keys: more than 2000 gem chests and more than 13000 glory chests, so much who i dont remember exactly number. So the chests do not interest me anymore and the same reason i dont want try the luck anymore in the chests. I have all epic and legendary troops, so i open chests only for find new mythics. If i cannot find new mythics after a reasonable number of chests, then the chests are useless for a player of end level like me. In that way i want change keys into diamonds for the Soul Forge. I repeat: the number of chests who i have opened gave me the chance of find mythics for 95% or more of percentage but i have found nothing. This thing have tired me. Can i have the choice to change keys into diamonds for Soul Forge then?
OK letâs run with the roulette analogy.
Nothing makes that wheel hit every number before it repeats. Your odds for hitting any given number are always the same. If the wheel is fair, you should win as often betting randomly as you would betting on the same number every time. The âgamblerâs fallacyâ is what the people who think âIt hasnât hit 18 in a long time, surely it will hit 18 soon!â are doing.
Opening 200 keys is like placing 200 different bets at 200 different roulette tables at the same time, then spinning all 200 wheels at once. Each of the 200 wheels will come up with a different random number. But itâs somewhat likely at least one of your tables will hit.
The same thing would happen if you sat at the same table and bet 200 times. But itâs faster to make 200 simultaneous bets.
The only other way people tend to discourage opening 200 keys is it can be a waste. If you tell the game âopen 200 keysâ it opens 200 whether you get a mythic or not. What youâd really rather do is open a small number of keys and stop as soon as you get a mythic. Waiting for 200 spins of the roulette wheel is a pain in the butt. Opening 200 keys one at a time crashes the game last I checked. So we tend to open in quantity.
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