Good Morning. Some time ago i had written complaining that i had opened more than 10,000 treasure chests to find the new mythical, but without finding it. It had been calculated that the possibility of finding it was 90%. Bad luck, was told me. On that occasion i had also requested that Pity Timer be introduced into the game. Now i have opened another 5400 treasure chests: 5000 glory and 400 gems without finding Megavore. The total number of opened treasure chests is now more than 15400.
For sure the probability now be increased to over 95%, sure beyond the level of statistical likelihood. So i go back to asking for the Pity Timer in the treasure chests, just to avoid circumstances like this. What do you think of the Pity Timer in the game? Thanks at all for attention. This is the link of my old topic: Mythical troops guaranteed in treasure chests and conversion of minor traitstones into diamonds
There will never be a pity timer. We have the Soul Forge to give us guaranteed legendary/mythic troops. Keep doing dungeons, and use those diamonds to fill in the gaps in your collection.
I spent months of play to get the keys to open the chests: it is right to have a benefit for this. I had to find the mythical over 15000 treasure chests opened: why then i did not find it? If I have not found it well beyond the statistical verisimilitude margin this must be considered, therefore in these circumstances the mythical troop must be guaranteed. That is right i think. The existance of Soul Forge in the game is another discussion. So, in conclusion, i ask for introduction of Pity Timer when the mythical troop was not found beyond the statistical verisimilitude margin. For example: when the probability of find a mythical troop over opened a numbere of treasure chests is over 95% then in that case the Pity Timer is a right thing and no reasons for me to not to do this .
I hate to say it, but you would be even more angry and upset if you had a pity timer at 95% and still didn’t pull the mythic… In a RNG luck based system, which exists in most rpgs and mmorpgs, it’s the luck of the draw that decides our fates.
I know it feels bad, but when you do get lucky and pull the mythic, guess what, exactly what happened to you in your post, is guaranteed to be happening to someone else.
I’m sorry though, I know it feels bad when you don’t get lucky… In game, and in real life.
It is not a question of bad luck, if the game predicts that the percentage is above 95%, you have to find it: if you do not find it in these circumstances for too much time, then there is something to change in the game. I specify, i have opened more than 2000 gems chests and more than 13000 glory chests for now.
And a lot of my guild-mates got it with 100 glory or 1000 seals, vs me who opened a lot more…
Well, then you should personally agree with me for Pity Timer at the 95% probability in the opened chests, i think. Right? However this is not a answer for that like me. I ask for Pity Timer at 95% probability of opened chests. You agree this? Some reasons of refuse this thing?
The reason for not doing this is that the game already has a guaranteed drop system: if you spend diamonds, you get legendary/mythic troops.
In the fact also treasure chests is a guaranteed drop-over system with 95% probability of opened chests. If no find mythical troops over this probability there need Pity Timer.
Sorry to be brutal again like @Grundulum was earlier. But a Pity Timer will never come, we got Soulforge.
I know the Soul Forge. But this is another argument. I ask for Pity Timer when the probability of mythical troop is more than 95% from opened chests. Are you agree in this request? I think is in your interest agree this, like is interest of all players. Probability of 95% is like certainty, so i ask for Pity Timer in the chests in that way.
I have yet to met any players that never wanted a Pity Timer. Especially around the periods when we lost most or all resources to the Mythic. Have you met anyone that does not want a Pity Timer?
Good, then you think like me, if i understood. We need go to ask this request at the devs.
95% is not “certainty”. It is the belief that you are only 5% likely to lose. If I threatened to shoot you with 5% probability, would you feel safe? I wouldn’t. I like keeping my probability of death at 0%.
The only percent that is a certainty is 100%. Claiming other percents is a certainty represents a misunderstanding of probability. Losing a 95% bet isn’t proof a system is broken: it is part of proving it works. Losing it 10 times isn’t always an indicator. If there are 50,000 players in GoW, then 2,500 of them are going to lose a 95% bet. Does 2,500 sound like a small number? It doesn’t to me. Those 2,500 people are going to complain the RNG is broken, but they are the proof it works! 500 people will lose a 99% bet. 500 people is still a lot.
But I don’t think they’ll really go for a pity timer because it devalues diamonds. From a design standpoint, if you knew there was a pity timer, you could hoard enough gem keys to have a 100% chance at a mythic. That is the same thing as diamonds.
It would also make the game exactly “pay to win” in terms of collection, because while there is a cap on how many diamonds you can buy, you aren’t limited by gems. “But that’s really expensive” doesn’t stop addicted gamblers. The regret comes later.
If this were a game that cost $30 up front, I’d argue that yes, having no pity timer is dumb. When you pay up-front for a game you expect to be able to finish it. Gems of War is free to play. Those games want to look like they last forever. Part of that involves making it harder than it seems to get everything in the game. Having a pity timer defeats that.
We can argue that Hearthstone has a pity timer and it is F2P, but it has a slightly different model. They want you to eventually get most of the cards in the rotation so you can compete. Their pity timer makes it so many players can put a monetary cost on “being competitive asap”, and so professional players can “just buy the cards I need” right off the bat.
GoW doesn’t have that model. They know as soon as you get a certain set of cards, you stop caring so much about trying for others. That warrants keeping the mechanisms that guarantee cards under tight control.
I don’t have to like it, but I do understand it. In the end, I think we would find if the game had a pity timer we’d quit sooner.
Probability of 95% is like certainly for statistics: if treasure gives this probability, then i need to find the mythical troop. Your reasoning can be inverted. If i dont find never mythical troops over 95% of probability of treasure chests, then one can spend a lot of keys for nothing. Why? An for how much time then? So here need a rule for the mythical troop in the chests for a reasonable time to play, otherwise it’s useless play and spend keys for the chests. The devs dont lose nothing if the Pity Timer is for 95% probability in the chests: they have decided this percentual for the game. And Soul Forge is another good way to have extra mythical troops in the game and do not change nothing of balance of this.
I am bad at statistics but I know this is not true. Really, really think about what I said.
A coin toss is 50/50. How much would you bet that if you flipped the coin 100 times, you’d get 50 heads and 50 tails? It is above 90% likely you’ll get something between 45 and 55 Tails. There is no certainty of any result. Only results that are so improbable you can be forgiven for not expecting them.
95% isn’t so improbable you can be forgiven. As illustrated, 5% of the game’s players are a lot. You are in a less than 1%. That’s still at least 1,000 people.
Ok, if you want we take Pity Timer at 99% of probability for example, but my question remain. Above a statistical percentage one can speak of reasonable certainty: in this circumstances i ask for Pity Timer. Otherwise is useless open the chests.
I am sorry to tell you again, but its a lost case and 100% certain to never come. But I am not gonna stop you from hoping. 
I dont understood what you said. However i tell you who if the treasure chests do not give mythical troops over a reasonable percentage, is useless open the chests in the game for all number of players have this bad percentage, who i hope is less than 5% of all players. Good for other players but very very bad for those players than fallen down in this bad percentage. And maybe also you later can fall in this bad percentage. If happen so, what you do? No hope for you then and is better stop playing.
I dont know what you dont understand. Me and several endgame players have told you that Pitty Timer will never come. All of us is experienced when it comes to how Soulforge works and how it have influenced the gameplay chasing troops. The Soulforge was the Devs answer to Pity Timer, and by announcing The Soulforge they pretty much made it clear that “this is it”. In fact we could not have asked for more. The Soulforge has been brilliant.