95% is not “certainty”. It is the belief that you are only 5% likely to lose. If I threatened to shoot you with 5% probability, would you feel safe? I wouldn’t. I like keeping my probability of death at 0%.
The only percent that is a certainty is 100%. Claiming other percents is a certainty represents a misunderstanding of probability. Losing a 95% bet isn’t proof a system is broken: it is part of proving it works. Losing it 10 times isn’t always an indicator. If there are 50,000 players in GoW, then 2,500 of them are going to lose a 95% bet. Does 2,500 sound like a small number? It doesn’t to me. Those 2,500 people are going to complain the RNG is broken, but they are the proof it works! 500 people will lose a 99% bet. 500 people is still a lot.
But I don’t think they’ll really go for a pity timer because it devalues diamonds. From a design standpoint, if you knew there was a pity timer, you could hoard enough gem keys to have a 100% chance at a mythic. That is the same thing as diamonds.
It would also make the game exactly “pay to win” in terms of collection, because while there is a cap on how many diamonds you can buy, you aren’t limited by gems. “But that’s really expensive” doesn’t stop addicted gamblers. The regret comes later.
If this were a game that cost $30 up front, I’d argue that yes, having no pity timer is dumb. When you pay up-front for a game you expect to be able to finish it. Gems of War is free to play. Those games want to look like they last forever. Part of that involves making it harder than it seems to get everything in the game. Having a pity timer defeats that.
We can argue that Hearthstone has a pity timer and it is F2P, but it has a slightly different model. They want you to eventually get most of the cards in the rotation so you can compete. Their pity timer makes it so many players can put a monetary cost on “being competitive asap”, and so professional players can “just buy the cards I need” right off the bat.
GoW doesn’t have that model. They know as soon as you get a certain set of cards, you stop caring so much about trying for others. That warrants keeping the mechanisms that guarantee cards under tight control.
I don’t have to like it, but I do understand it. In the end, I think we would find if the game had a pity timer we’d quit sooner.