How random are these chests?

So for two weeks in a row now I’ve had to open 100 event chests to get the legendary from the weekly event (opening 50 at a time, of course) because I didn’t get one off the first batch. I was pretty salty about this because I burned through almost all of my glory and THEN I dipped into my gem stash. I then came on here to see maybe if there was some change to how event chests work or something. Being that this is an F2P game, I assumed the chests operated on an algorithm instead of pure % chance. My assumption was that it was like… say there’s a 1% chance of getting the legendary when opening event chests one at a time, but if you open 50 it just gives you one and then the rest operate on some chance, but still have limitations in place like, say, only 10 chests can have traitstones in them.

Then I came on these forums and I’ve seen some tales of some gnarly luck with chests. I gotta say, I’m shocked. As far as I know, most F2P games (or games with random loot tied to paid transactions) cheat by instituting algorithms that limit just how random a player’s luck can be. You know, because if your player spends what amounts to $50 on your game, you want to make damn sure they feel good about that decision.

I’ve only had VIP for a month or so now, and I bought 50 VIP chests both times there was a new mythic around. Both times I got the mythic (Pharos Ra and now Jotnar). If I didn’t get them? Hoo, boy. Boy oh boy would I be questioning having spent over $100 on this game. But I’ve read a post on here from someone saying they didn’t get a mythic after opening 250!

I don’t know. I guess there are people who are okay with this and will think I’m a whiner. But I just think it’s good business. Or, you know, good game design? Effort metrics versus reward? What do you people think of the odds of these chests?

It is the players own decision to make that payment. The player should know how the RNG works in this game before buying a pack with a value of $50 +/-. The system is what it is, so no one to blame if you/me/others does not get anything special from the resources that was payed for.

Sorry, I wasn’t questioning the legality or the morality here. It’s purely a game design philosophy and business discussion. If you want to argue that pure RNG makes more money based on tried and true statistics (the game has been out for, what, over 2 years now?) then that might already be determined, sure. I was saying that by using algorithms you can make a game that’s more FUN and- possibly- attracts more people to spend on it. Either from in-game money or real money.

Why would the Devs do any changes when the sales is doing good? A lot must also be right then if the sales is doing good.

Sales can always be better. I mean, unless every single person on the planet has this game and is spending every cent they have on it, heh.

Your question also does not meet the first part of why I said it’s a good idea: fun. You see, games aren’t real. They’re a collection of lights and sounds that react to a player pushing buttons. The goal of a game designer is to make that player interaction fun. Generally speaking, a game designer’s goal is to make a game that is fun or is enjoyable in some manner. If you’re saying you enjoy the possibility of opening hundreds and hundreds of event chests and never getting the legendary (because that is possible with true random, however unlikely) then okay. YOU enjoy that. I do not. I’m guessing maybe others might agree with me.

[quote=“woootbm, post:5, topic:19555”]
If you’re saying you enjoy the possibility of opening hundreds and hundreds of event chests and never getting the legendary (because that is possible with true random, however unlikely) then okay. YOU enjoy that.[/quote]

I hate when RNG strikes me badly, but it pays up when RNG threats me good. Who in the world do enjoy when RNG strikes one badly? You must think that I am a ***** idiot. lol

I am out of here, thank you for the insult.

Ah, I do apologize. I got a bit uppity there.

To anyone else, I don’t mean to put people down. It’s just that the argument here seemed to come from a “deal with it, noob” kind of stance. I can understand that… when we’re talking about game difficulty. A difficult game is meant to appeal to a specific crowd. But I don’t think that logic should apply here. And it’s not like getting one legendary from 50 event chests would be super free. Like, good luck to a guildless newbie trying to get that many chests without spending serious cash.

I just hope next week features a legendary I already have so I can relax -_-

I personally like the fact that the chests are completely random. I don’t like the idea of pity timers (or the oppisite). Doesn’t matter if i got what I wanted, I’d still feel better knowing the chests are honest and don’t ‘cheat’.

That’s just me, though. Feel free to think/feel otherwise.

i’ve gotten a couple times in the past 2 legendary from 1 gold key… hope that puts into perspective where they chest situation in this game has gone since those times :grin:

It’s funny, I actually consider myself lucky I didn’t start playing the game earlier. I’ve seen some stuff on how the key system used to work, and I think if I had been around when it changed to what it is now I would been so salty I would have quit, heh. I have gotten 1 or 2 legendaries out of Glory chests, though. More on that in a bit…

Yeah, the opposite is something I fear for sure. Like, I’m wondering if the system has caught on to how many event chests I acquire each week and is nerfing my odds >.<

Hm. I guess there are just two issues with the system that I can’t ignore. The first is that I know what the process of game design is. There is no real randomness to a game; every part of it was carefully calculated to create a preconceived vision. For example, every rogue-like ever banks on this notion of “it’s different every time!” But the designers behind the game generally try their best to figure out every possible combination, and then adjust the odds accordingly so that the good times feel really good, and the bad times don’t happen too often. Like, most of the time when a player feels like they have broken a game with some crazy combo, the dev’s were actually hoping it would be found. Any good dev knows it’s best to make the player THINK they came up with something on their own. So it’s hard for me to appreciate “true random” when I know they just adjust the odds to hit the numbers they want to see. And I don’t see it as more honest, personally. I get what you’re saying, but I feel like random chance isn’t a good judge of whether I’ve earned something. With something like grinding traitstones in explore, sure, random chance works fine. But this leads to the second thing.

The second issue is with Event keys specifically. Gold, Glory, Gem, and Guild keys are fine. They’re just random grab bags; I always get exactly that. Earlier when I mentioned the legendaries out of Glory chests this is what I was talking about. That chance of getting higher grade stuff is always sweet, baby. But Event keys are only good for the week AND they’re 50% more expensive than Gem keys. I just expect Event keys to be an absolute method towards getting stuff from the event. Otherwise I’d just get Gem keys and completely ignore Event keys. Even better, in the last month or so I got to VIP 5 so I can spend gems on VIP chests. Which… well, if those don’t guarantee a mythic during its week then we’re at the same problem again of “why bother?” If these chests don’t do something definitive, then it’s better to simply get gem chests en masse. Those Legendaries and Mythics will eventually be available in gem chests anyway. I know they’ve buffed VIP chests at least once to make them worth it. I mean, if we’re talking about what feels more honest, how honest is it to convince players to spend their resources on chests that aren’t as good as a lower tier of chest?

I’m glad you brought up this issue in general @woootbm, as I have often wondered whether the RNG can get “stuck” in a downright unlucky mode, despite having VIP access.

It’s long been recognized that VIP chests offer a higher (but not necessarily guaranteed) way to gain new legendaries and mythics. And if you don’t get your desired target troops, at least you get a nice selection of Arcanes. Well and good, in theory.

Now as I’ve mentioned, I’ve had VIP 5 for a while on the console version of the game. Perhaps for a year now. In the initial version of VIP chests that existed prior to mythics, they acted similarly to Event chests and you could target that week’s Legendaries from a VIP chest. I was slowly able to scrape needed legendaries from my VIP chests although they pulled with surprising difficulty.

Flash forward to today where we’ve had the newer VIP chest mechanic implemented (where you can pull any legendary at all from VIP) as well as the new Guild task system that caps out weekly resource creation. Start offering Mythics on console, with a tantalizingly higher apparent %chance probability from VIP access.

Add to that the fact that console guilds are nowhere near as active in completing tasks as PC/Mobile users.

Now, I know better than to spend all my gems all at once on opening chests. Playing this game requires some planning and foresight to pull together the 2250 gems needed to open 50 VIP chests. But if you do spend your stash, as I did, and failed to pull not only the featured Mythics but the new limited-time legendaries (“one week exclusive”) and this situation goes on for weeks on end? Well eventually it turns into “Houston we have a problem.”

The problem being that not only I haven’t been able to get the new troops, my resources are so impoverished that going forward, I won’t be able to get them in the near future either. Consoles are different than the Mobile game. I can’t gain resources faster by collecting more Tributes every hour on the hour. The TV screen and my consoles are shared by others in my household, for other things like playing Prog Rock music, Bloodbourne, and Netflix, you know? To be fair to them, I do have to limit my playtime on GoW.

I really don’t know what to do at this point because without a whole lot of resources on hand, this game sees a sharp decrease in useful troop progression. I do not have enough Arcanes/Runics to trait even my existing legendaries. I suppose if I do buy a few more packs of Daily Gems, at 675 gems an Event chest it will still be months before I can get back on track to thinking of getting exclusive time-limited troops even in Epic or Ultra-Rare flavours, let alone the mythics.

Anyway, just my 2¢ worth on the subject of randomness. Funny how these things work either way.
:thinking: :rolling_eyes: :frowning2:

I hear what you are saying and I can definitely appreciate the sense of “injustice” one feels when one’s expectations aren’t met.

However here I feel that it is the expectations that are the problem, as they are out-of-line with what is on-offer in reality.

edit: And perhaps to expand the discussion as opposed to just stating my feelings: Don’t overlook the psychological aspect of RNG in a game like this. Getting a Sheggra when you are level 23 is like hitting the progressive 777 jackpot. I wouldn’t want any “guarantee” or promise of specific troop gains as it would impact that pleasure.

Event keys appeal most to people with a mostly complete collection. You pay extra gems to target troops from a specific kingdom.

Unless you already have most legendaries, or want to target a specific one, gem chests are a better option. Event chests are more for end gamers finishing their collection.

Yeah, I suppose that’s all they’re supposed to do. But if that’s it then I feel like Event chests should cost the same as Gem Chests. Meh.

Okay, but there’s a bundle every week where you can simply buy the weekly legendary. That diminishes the value of RNG to me because I know rich kids can and will just skip the whole affair. And, as far as I know, a level 1 has access to those bundles.

I think the RNG payout is already there, too, in my suggestion. Back some months ago, I didn’t have the resources or know-how to gather Glory and event keys. And one week Keeper of Souls was the legendary. I did my best and got around 20 event keys. I opened them all up and I managed to get the bastard! Some time later, Sheggra (I think) was the weekly guy. I did the same thing: no luck.

There have also been weeks where I got more than one legendary out of a batch of 50. So, you know, that was the jackpot for me, heh.

It’s interesting that consoles don’t have any leniency! I know I saw this game on my XBone and I thought, “No, never.” But I realize smart phones are quite a luxury that a lot of people don’t want to spend the dough on. They should probably buff the console version. But I don’t have any hands on knowledge of that. Might be a good topic for the console community.

@Justin Gem chests would be great to use! If I had more than 302 gems that is…

What I don’t understand at all is THIS report here:

I mean, what level are you @ExtraTurn? Ra from 10 guild seals? I haven’t obtained new troops from a 10-chest pull in over 200 level ups! Is it still possible? lol

Level 900-something, Theicla. However, I also posted that my luck was bound to change back to crap…and it did. Tried for new mythic and didn’t get jack. 9000 seals, 4.5k glory, 500 gem keys, and 7k gems later, and I got maybe 10 Arcanes and Imp of Love and nothing else whatsoever. Weak.

Ouch. Those 7k gems were VIP chests? I didn’t worry too much about the mythics before hitting VIP 5. I had assumed the F2P Gatcha nature of this game meant everything other than VIP chests would be akin to playing the lottery. But that assumption also came with the belief in an algorithm that I’m learning doesn’t exist. I’m scared, man. Aghhhhhh >.<

I guess I’m going back to my old strategy. If I have enough resources lying around (like Event keys from guild tasks and glory for Event chests, and gems for VIP chests) then I’ll give the weekly stuff a try. But after that? Just twiddle my thumbs and wish I had the things I put in a solid effort for. Not gonna spend money on the game, not gonna kill my resource stash. Already spent plenty. Maybe if I had a guarantee I might be inclined to buy gems to get those VIP chests, sure, but Event chests aren’t worth the gems. Especially without a guaranteed chance.

I know there’s the $50 bundle for the weekly legendary, but that’s too much. Maybe if it was a mythic and a bunch of VIP keys… but now I know the 50 Event keys those bundles come with don’t get me the next legendary (necessarily). And the weapon is generally something that comes from leveling up sooo PFFBT!

thats more or less normal drop rate for event chests

as far as i know there is no difference in chance between opening one by one and in a bulk (the difference are in prices instead)

cant speak of vip chest rates from first hand as i cant acces them, all i seen was the claimed rates and other ppls comments about it, judging by that little data i think the rates are acceptable

never heard even a mention of an “algorhitm” for the card drops in this game,
it may be a bad thing but i also kind of like it
there was time i played summoners war and there, the algorhitm is sure visible if u observe the global drops but in return the chance to ever get a “natural mythic” is so much worse then in here…