As I said, maybe better luck next time. My average shards gain per Delve is 25, sometime get lucky and get 80-120. So I’m sure RNGsus will improve your shards drop to even it out soon. (If you already do anything you could to improve your luck)
However, I do agree that they should at least be some amount of garantee Shards after each run, right now there might be too much random luck involved.
This is why I’m mad at the people who are mad that treasures can drop from LTs.
I will take any greater chance of legendary/mythic treasures I can get. I only need to upgrade quality 10 times per faction, then I’m free.
I have a bad feeling this is the explanation:
Your worst-case chest is level 3. That happens if, for some reason, you get no upgrades. Level 3 chest prizes are meant to be bad, because they are also what you get if you go straight to the boss room.
(I guess you can get a lower level if you lose/quit, but I’m assuming we all agree “if you quit or lose before even the theoretical minimum 2 matches finish, the prizes should suck.”)
Level 4 chests seem to be significantly better. I haven’t logged my prizes but I don’t think I’ve ever opened a level 4 without chaos shards. Level 4 also happens to be the guaranteed minimum if you pull off level 4 of hoard quality. I’m level 3, so that’s not a long journey. It looks like maximum quality gives you a minimum level of 5.
I feel like somewhere between 6 and 8 there’s another huge jump in quality, where you typically get either a lot of legendary ingots or “some” mythic ingots. When your quality is fully upgraded:
So, basically: having no hoard at quality 4+ sucks. Chests level 1-3 are meant to be the pat on the back for people who can’t finish a Delve. Unfortunately, until you hit that quality mark, there’s a relatively high probability even a perfect Delve run ends at level 3.
I think “the solution” is to have some additional reward for having done every room. The trick is the devs already balanced the economy like they want, so we won’t get an adjustment without “losing” things. (More: ‘the average reward has to remain constant so to add more to the low end we subtracted from the high end’.) Think about how gnomes worked: we complained about the reward pool, so they added better rewards and diluted the pool with booby prizes.
I think a further problem is the rewards are balanced for being fair “after all your factions are matched”, without much regard to “what it’s like while it takes time to get there.”
We’ll see how opinions change as people get their qualities up. I think there’s a lot of ways to screw yourself in Delve and I think this time 2 weeks from now there is going to be a LOT of negative feedback as people figure out they are painted into a corner and it will be months before the paint dries.
You said you never opened a level 4 chest without getting chaos shards… yet the screenshot you posted completely destroys that statement since you can clearly see a level 4 chest in it. Furthermore, even at higher levels, the better rewards are still not guaranteed and usually replaced with something that is pretty useless.
Also, if your luck is bad, you could go through all the rooms and still get stuck with a level 2 or 3 chest after the boss and what about that? Going out of my way to do all the extra rooms for the same reward I would have gotten for rushing it? No thanks.
Edit: Only reason why I’m bothering to do them is for all the unique troops (and sadly, the perfectionist delve achievement… groan…)
According to the in-game tooltip, you only get the quality bonus if you beat the boss room and finish the Delve. So if you painted yourself into a corner, you may not be able to consistently get that quality bonus.
I stand corrected: I thought that chest was a level 3. Today I apparently opened 2 level 4s and a level 6. So “Level 4 seems to guarantee shards” is not a statement I’ll stand behind anymore, but I do think level 4 seems much more likely to have them than 3 or lower.
This is the part that I mean sucks until you upgrade your quality. 2 is the minimum level, to get that you’d have to go straight to the boss room and miss the chance on the 2nd room. 3 is a more typical worst-case, I don’t know if I’ve ever finished all rooms without at least 1 extra upgrade.
A fully-upgraded Hoard (quality 10 isn’t exponentially hard to get, thankfully) should bump those up to 4 and 5 as your worst cases, and I strongly feel those chests can’t miss as hard as a 1-3 can. This is assuming you beat the boss room, as @Grundulum is right and the UI implies you get no bonus if you don’t fully finish. I’m not upset with that, though: I think if you run away it makes sense you lose something.
But I agree, the mode was a lot more exciting before I got familiar with it, and doesn’t pay me back for putting the work in to max the hoard level. Only quality seems to do something tangible.
On average maybe, it is 100% dependant on how many chaos shards you loot, how much treasures you get from those then, and what quality your treasures turns out to be. So how hard it is to get to hoard quality 10 will vary extremely drastically between different Players.
So if your plan is always beat the only required rooms, once you’re lucky to get Shards drop, you will get such a small quantity that it won’t amount to anything. You never know when you will get Shards, so it’s better to maximize your chance by increasing the multiplier.
If you still insisted to rush the Delve, and then complain about getting too few shards, then I really can’t help you. You put that on yourself with your own conflicting strategy.
Slypenslyde, I’m sorry, I can’t even read half of your post before getting headache from too many misinformations. If you’re insisted on writing long post, please educated yourself some more by verifying your data, or read some post on Help Center, as you might ended up spreading wrong information to new players. People won’t have time to correct you all the time, so please, be more careful.
I still think it is true, even with all of that considered, you will likely have quality 10 before level 250 on every Hoard that ever exists unless you specifically spend treasures in a way that minimizes your odds of quality increase. I’m not sure if it’s even possible to reach 1000 without quality 10.
Again on average roll results surely. But some poor soul being forced to work almost entirely with coin purses and golden rings will never have guaranteed quality ups.
You missed my point. I said that if your luck is bad, you could beat all 9 rooms in the Hall of Guardians but still get the same result by rushing to the end. In other words, you can beat all 9 rooms for a Level 2 Chest but beating all 3 mandatory rooms in a rush could give a Level 3 chest.
You see the problem? That’s what I was trying to say but you misinterpreted it. Sure, odds are you will most likely get a level 4 chest but by happenstance, you can get ungodly bad luck and get stuck with only the guaranteed level ups on the super buffed boss.
I don’t think I do? What I am trying to say is your can increse your luck by playing more rooms. For other example, if you have 2 dice, what can you do to roll higher point? You roll them a bunch of times until you’re satisfied.
Luck is never a garantee thing. You could only have to roll 3 time and get 6-6, or 10 times and still never go higher than 5-5. The thing is, if you get a chance to roll more, you definitely should.
So… if you roll the dice many time as possible (clearing all 9 Delve rooms), it should result in higher score than rolling a few times (clearing require 3 rooms). Sure, all that 9 times might all fail and that 3 times can be more successful, but on average, more chance to try your luck will never be a bad thing, even more if all you have to pay is time.
Also, I don’t see any problems, that’s just how gambling work.
Eh, I’m assuming I will be that poor soul but even I win 50% chances sometimes. That’s kind of my approach right now: I hoard until I can reach 80% or more. OR, if I amass so many treasures I still have enough to try 50% and leave behind enough to hit 80% on lucky tomorrow, I’ll try the 50%.
Basically those 5 and 10% treasures sit there doing nothing if you don’t use them so I may as well. I think I might auto-spend the 5% ones after looking at the numbers.
Part of the problem is “luck” here works out in your favor very long-term, but you only get 3 shots at “luck” daily.
What we care about is “Did I get chaos shards?” in this discussion. We only get “yes or no” 3 times daily. Let’s ignore “How many do I get?” because that is a different question.
Whether you get chaos shards relies on rolling dice. “Winning a match” is never guaranteed, even at low levels. A bad series of cascades from the level 10 team could destroy you. But that’s going to be really rare. I bet if we played 1,000 level 10 games it’d be so infrequent we’d agree “we can call this 0%”.
So your minimum chest in most reckonings will be between level 2 and 4, based on quality. I don’t know if levels lower than 4 can drop Chaos Shards. If not, then we’re already looking at “You have to have maxed quality to get Chaos Shards every time.” That seems like a good reward for having maxed quality: one of your RNG gates falls down.
Getting a higher chest level requires beating rooms. This is the motivation to even try. Assuming you can beat all of the rooms, the RNG tells you if you get a chest level. The room layout actually determines this probability: I don’t have the map available but I think it’s proven Hall of Guardians has a higher rate overall than All-Seeing Eye? I trust someone else to do the actual probability math but it seems like the average expected chest level gain is between 1 and 2. I haven’t played enough games to get a feel for how close to 2 it is.
So with 0 quality, the “expected” chest level ends between 3 and 4, meaning sometimes you won’t get any Chaos Shards. With 4 quality, it ends between 4 and 5, so you should always get Chaos shards. With maxed quality, it ends between 5 and 6, further guaranteeing shards.
There are very bad luck scenarios where you get +0 instead of the expected +1. These should be rare. With 0 quality, that drops you to a level 2 chest. 4 Quality is level 3. 10 quality is level 4. So if we consider bad luck, we have to max quality to have a shot at Chaos Shards every time.
I will argue the scenarios where you lose before the boss room should be so infrequent they don’t exist. This tilts if you have pushed your Delve level very high, but that also throws all the other probabilities off: the more likely you can lose before the boss room the worse your chances of ever seeing chaos shards will be.
TL;DR:
Whether you should do the rooms at +2 quality depends on if the multiplier applies to chaos shards. If so, then whether you should do a room is a complex function of its multiplier and your expected yield.
I don’t know if we have enough data to predict things like “expected yield” yet, unless the drop tables happen to be in the data files.
Uhm ok, why is that a reply to my post though?^^
I didn’t say don’t upgrade your hoard, i just said the difference in time spent and resources invested of different players upgrading it to 10 will be immense.
Results:
Level 5 chest: 8 shards, 3 legendary ingots, bunch of gold
Level 4 chest: 11 shards, 3 legendary ingots, 3 mythic ingots and 5,500 gold
Level 7 chest (F you Bulette and boss!): 52 shards, bunch of souls.
3 portals… portal gave me 2 Ethreal Sentry and a Gold Ring… Again… F this mode. If there wasn’t an achievement tied for perfecting a faction, I would have bailed on day 2.
As a long time player the reward system with the delves can be very difficult to discern. Can’t imagine a new player. But then again maybe I’m thinking to hard lol and a new player wouldn’t give it much thought.
and that’s probably why they added that achievement
Just did a level 50 delve and ended with a level 4 chest, no shards but 1,100 souls (I already have more than 1,000,000) and 56 glory (have 130,000 already) and 3x Gold Ingots.
So basically duck poo for my nine battles, most of them with a jumbled team order (which was kind of amusing as Gorgotha ended up totally blocked by Magnus and Scorpius!)
*shakes head
I still fail to see why Gold, Souls and Glory are in those chests to begin with. The delves really aren’t new player friendly who would be able to really rely on Souls and Glory. Gold MAYBE I could understand but there are way more options to get gold that aren’t so slow.
Dreading the faction event tomorrow.
Else devs couldn’t put 10 levels of quality for the Hoard… 
Today I cleared every room of green/blue delve 3 times and got only lv3 chest 3 times. What are the odds? 