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Unlucky or EK drop rate nerf (GaP)?

Thank you. My own estimate for the gnome appearance rate (pre-GAP) is 10%.

4 double GAPs today. 1804 gnomes defeated. 142 vault keys dropped. 8 vault keys dropped. total 150 keys. Key drop rate .0831. Epic Key drop rate .0563.
Including last event’s result, I have had back-to-back GAPs drop ZERO Epic keys 3 of 13 times. Also had a double GAP that gave 1 epic key.
That simply should not happen. RNG should not get so skewed that 456 consecutive gnomes fail to drop a single epic key. On 3 separate occasions, no less, although the other two were 420 & 424 each.
Never got 9% total key drop on any run.
Adding in last event’s numbers, 8% total key drop still holding. Epic Key drop rate .0792.

Assuming a 0.8% EVK drop rate, there is a 2.6% chance of not finding an EVK drop in a set of 456 gnomes, which is not insignificant. Of course, the more GAPs you do and the more gnomes you encounter, the longer your worst dry streak will last, simply because you have performed so many trials that you are likely to have encountered a rare event or two.

EVK drop rate is supposed to be 10%, if I’m not mistaken.

EVK drop rate is 10% of (VK + EVK) drop rate.

So what’s the percent chance with the normal EVK drop rate of 10%, not 8%.

What do you mean by normal? As I’ve mentioned above, this 10% value you reference refers to the fact that, out of all the vault keys you get from drops, about 10% should be epic. This does not mean that EVKs have an absolute drop rate of 10%, and there is no reason to believe that the total (= VK + EVK) vault key drop rate should be 10%, either.

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Maybe if it had been stated 8% TK (total of VK+EK) rate instead of using 8% EVK (Which stands for just Epic Vault Key), it would not have been confusing.
It’s happened 3 of 15 double runs. That’s 20%, over 7 times his stated figure 2.6%.
And it also does’nt change the fact that my TK rate is 8%, not 9% as stated above. Nor the fact that my EVK rate is also 8%, not 10% as stated.
Adding in one last double GAP today & last events numbers, I’ve gotten 497 VK, 43 EVK, with 6680 gnomes defeated (I took out the few verse gnomes that popped up).
That’s 1,670 battles, which should be more than enough to establish the rates.

Please read my responses carefully; I think you are getting confused because you are not paying attention to my precise wording and claims. We have had a similar dispute in the last vault weekend—in this precise thread, I believe.

I have never used a value of 8% EVK. In my calculation above,

the value of 0.8% EVK drop rate comes from multiplying the data-established 8% total (VK + EVK) drop rate by the data-established and stated 10% EVK chance from an arbitrary key drop: 8% * 10% = 0.8%.

Yes, you are unlucky, but not impossibly so. My calculation shows that your assertion that

is invalid.

No one has claimed that the total key drop rate is 9%. If you are referring to Fleg’s number, that is the gnome appearance chance in a regular battle during a vault event, which is completely unrelated.

It seems as though you have simply been unlucky. Given how rare EVKs are, there is considerable variance that you should expect.

Indeed, your data agrees with the data-established result of the total key drop rate being 8%.

OK.

I do believe 3% tripled is 9%.

So, it did’nt happen? 3 times? OK. How about 1300 gnomes with no Epic key? I did’nt even count the double GAP I only got 1 key. You could add 108 or to that number.

Make up your mind. Either the numbers establish a rate or they don’t. It’s the same 1670 battles for both total keys AND Epic keys.

You are selectively quoting and misrepresenting my arguments.

See the following quote from my response above.

Are you getting 1300 by adding up 456 + 420 + 424? That’s like saying I ran GAP for 1000 battles and did not get a single key drop in 920 battles—because I selectively ignored the 80 battles in which I did get key drops. This is fallacious reasoning.

In my original response, I claimed that you were unlucky to have such an occurrence thrice. When have I stated that this didn’t happen?

This is a subtle point, so I’m glad you’re mentioning it. Although the total number of trials is the same, the probability of success—and hence the standard deviation for the empirical proportion—differs. Thus, there is a difference in the confidence interval in the two events. In other words, because an EVK drop is 10 times rarer than any key drop, you need more observations of EVK drops to get a reliable estimate for the probability of EVK drops. As a result, I can be much more confident in the value of the total drop rate obtained from your data than in the value of the EVK drop rate.

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During a gnome event:

Chance of gnome appearing = 9%
When gnome is killed chance of dropping a VK = 8%
When a VK drops chance of it becoming an EVK = 10%

It’s very possible to do a GAP (15-20 vk drops) and have none of them become an EVK. When the average expected is a mere 1 or 2 then a 0 is very common. You need a much larger sample size than 142/8 to declare a nerf to the 10%.

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I’ve been doing double GAPs. Those 3 seperate runs in which I got 0 Epic keys were all double Gaps.

That’s from the last two events combined. Also, in this event, I’ve had 43 non-verse gnomes show up outside of GAPs. 1 vault key. That’s not big enough of a sample size to say “NERFED!!!”
But it still sucks.

Since GaPs have been introduced, and including this weekend, I’ve consistently experienced about a 10:1 ratio of regular Vault Keys to Epic Vault keys. The attached screenshot was just taken after my weekend of doing numerous GaPs, and absolutely reflects this (although I will say this doesn’t separate out the keys I get from gnome tracker pity keys, so it would be slightly greater than 10:1 looking at just drop ratios from active GaP battle loot). I also consistently craft 2x at a time to run for 30 minutes.

EDIT: Factored in pity keys

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And the hits just keep on coming…
4 Double Gaps today, not as many as I wanted. (due to early lag & work)
Twice I got 0 epic keys.
Twice.
One run of 412 gnomes. The other of 456.
5 of 19 double GAPs have now gotten me 0 Epic keys. That’s 26% of the time, I get zip for epic keys.
With 1704 GAP gnomes defeated… 131 VK. 8 EVK (25 pity - not included for percentages).
Today’s percentage: TK (both vault & epic) .081, so barely holding at 8%.
EK at .061, WAY below 10%.
Adding to the above numbers: 8384 Gnomes, 628 VK, 51 EK.
TK%: .80, again barely 8 %. EK%: .081, still holding steady at 8%, not 10% like it is supposed to be.

7 Double GAPs run this event. And another double gave 0 Epics. 207 VK, 26 EK with 3088 gnomes (772 battle) defeated. 1st (and only) event with a better than 10% Epic drop rate.
Been tracking since GAP was nerfed. 11472 gnomes (2868 battles). 835 VK, 77 EK.
Total Key drop: .079, just under 8%.
Epic Key drop: .092, still not 10%, but closer than before.

Mine was more than 10% for evk in the last 2 vault events.