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Unlucky or EK drop rate nerf (GaP)?

Maybe it’s just me… I ran 3 Gnome-a-Paloozas so far and got a single epic vault key.

I know it’s not a lot of GaPs but last time I would at least have gotten 10, most likely more, EKs from those 3 runs.

So, am I really unlucky or has anyone noticed the same thing?

You were unlucky, but not particularly so. As you mention, your sample size isn’t large enough to draw any sort of conclusion based on your experience alone.

In addition, I think you have inflated expectations: 10 (let alone more) EVKs from three GaPs is already far beyond the norm, so it is not surprising that you did not get that many.

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I’ve only done 4 GAPs myself thus far, but as far as I can tell, it doesn’t appear to be nerfed as I’ve gotten a total of 11 EVKs during that span. But definitely some streaky RNG as I got 0, 8, 0, 3 EVKs for each 15 minute GAP. So my advice is to keep at it, your luck will turn.

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I’ve done 12 GAPs. 4 of them have gotten 0 Epic keys. That’s 892 gnomes and no Epic keys.
RNG has never, EVER, adjusted the other way across a negative that large.
And before you ask, the EVKs I did get from the other GAPs, 2 had 4 (expected), the rest were all under 10%.

While technically true, your last sentence is misleading because the 4 GAPs in which you received no epic keys were presumably not all in a row, which would be a much rarer event than picking out four different GAPs in which you received no epic keys.

You certainly should not expect to get 4 EVKs/GAP on average.

Let us assume a 10% VK drop chance, which we know is an overestimate from your data. We are told that 10% of all VK drops will be EVK, so the EVK drop chance would be 1%. If you encounter 224 gnomes during a GAP, then you should find 2.24 EVKs on average—and this is already an overestimate.

We can go further. Given the results above, the distribution of the number N of vault keys in a GAP follows Poisson statistics with rate parameter λ = 2.24, so that P(N = 4) = exp(-λ) λ⁴/4! = 0.11, so it turns out that you were quite lucky to get 4 EVKs in 2 GAPs out of 12 total GAPs.

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I run double GAPs. Sorry, I did’nt mention that on this thread, thought I did on another. 2 of those double gaps got me 4 keys (expected). 2 of those got me 0 keys (which is where i got the 892 gnome total from). The rest were all under 4 and all under 10%.
And, that means I did back to back GAPS with no epic keys. Twice.

Thanks for clarifying, that does make more sense. I think it’s still more likely than not that it’s just bad luck over a small sample size, especially given the rarity of an EVK drop (<1%), but I guess we’ll find out with more data.

I was probably just exceedingly lucky the last two vault events, then.

Good to know that others didn’t notice any change - that means I’ll hopefully get lucky again at some point. :grin:

My data so far (for this event):

  • total number of gnomes: 8144
  • keys: 567 => 6.96%
  • epic keys: 76 => 0.93%

That being said, before running a 5-hour non-stop GaP, my epic key rate was closer to 0.7%, so take that part with a grain of salt. To me it feels like, key drop rate is 7% and epic key drop rate is 0.7% (which is 10% of the key drop, which is consistent with what we knew before).

This question may be a good chance to give the new mods the opportunity to answer honestly and directly, as opposed to what has been historically the case with ‘hands tied’/radio silence.

@NewMods: what are the VK and EVK drop rates during GaP?
:crossed_fingers::relaxed: :vulcan_salute:

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Just did 3 GAPS, not gonna spend my whole weekend playing as I got other things to do. But it’s Sunday so lets chill around playing some. :wink:

13 -12 -14 VKs, 4 Epic VKs included.

It would be nice to get an official response but don’t hold your breath. Fwiw from numerous data collection threads a gnome drops a vk 8% of the time and 10% of those will be evk.

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Oh wait, does this mean that I should actually count EVKs as vault key drops, too?

In this case, my final post reflects:
8.31% key drop (regular + epic)
0.98% epic key drop.

Which is closer to the values you are talking about. (0.98% is higher but the data points is so few for epic keys, I think that is totally possible).

I did two (2) Gnome-a-Paloozas this weekend.

12 Vault Keys, 1 Epic Vault Key, ~165 gnomes killed in the first.
12 Vault Keys, 1 Epic Vault Key, ~160 gnomes killed in the second.

(For whatever it’s worth, the EVK was the very last drop in #2).

Just to provide a couple of additional data points for whoever is trying to prove whatever.

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By now I played on my alt, 1 GaP, got 3 epic keys. That’s what I used to experience on my main the last two times, 3 to 5 epic keys per run.

But I also cashed in some keys because I don’t feel like only farming said keys and got a load of blue orbs which I definitely didn’t get the last two times.

Just RNG things… :grin:

I think I played for 5-6 hours this event, I managed to find enough verses to 4 GaPs. Was it worth the 6 hours of playing, I am not sure man.

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Update stats on my end if people are still interested:

  • Total number of gnomes: 14112
  • verses: 305
  • keys (regular + epic): 1113, key drop rate: 8.92% (including epics)
  • epic keys: 119, epic key drop rate: 0.86%

The current results suggest more along, key (regular + epic) drop rate => 9% and epic key drop rate: 0.9%. That being said, again, the data points is not enough to completely reject that it could be 8% and 0.8%.

Hope this helps,

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mother of God, u forgot to eat so u must go eat now.

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Believe me eating is not the problem (can still hunt gnomes while eating). Sleeping is (which I forgot a lot, but hopefully will make up during the week :slight_smile:

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Just incredible datas, thanks for sharing!

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