That’s how probability works. Unless someone is tilting the odds for you, playing 10,000 games without a traitstone should be possible, if not frustrating.
Coin tosses make good demonstrations. Let’s say we’re tossing a perfectly balanced coin. It lands on heads, we’ll use “H” for that and “T” for tails.
What are the odds that it lands on H for the second toss? Bad gamblers will say 100%, because they think somehow the universe guarantees results. Good gamblers understand H is still 50%, and T is still 50%. Let’s say we flip and get H again.
So we have “HH” in sequence. At two tosses, only “HH”, “HT”, “TH”, and “TT” were possible. For 2 tosses, we only had 25% odds of reaching “HH”. Neat. We’re lucky! Note there were 2 ways to get 1 heads and 1 tails. So we had 50% odds of that. We’re really lucky!
What happens if we flip it again? A bad gambler will say, “It HAS to be tails now!”. A smart gambler understands it is 50%. We flip and get another heads. “HHH”. Out of all the possibilities, that sequence had 12.5% odds. But when we were already at “HH”, it was 50%! That’s because in that state, only “HHH” and “HHT” were possible.
That’s how finding Arcane Traitstones works. The game does NOT keep count of how many games you’ve played and hand out a stone if you go “too long” without one. (Or, if it does, that hasn’t been explained to us.) If @Stan is correct and the odds are about 1:16 or 6%, we can say:
- Every game you play has a 6% chance of dropping a stone.
- You are 88% likely to see no traitstones in 2 plays.
- In order to be 90% certain you’ll get one, you need to play about 36 games.
- That still means if you play 36 games, you are 10% likely to get 0 traitstones, that’s a fairly high probability.
- To be 99% certain, you need to play about 112 games.
- See how it cost 76 more games just for an extra 9% certainty?
- You could still play 112 games without getting an arcane traitstone. It’s phenomenally unlikely! But considering thousands of players farm daily, several people “win” this bet every day.
- At 53 games, you had about an 11% chance to see 0 arcane traitstones. 11% is a fairly high probability, so you’re not even notably unlucky!
Our brains are very bad at probability. We like to think 90%, 80%, and even 75% are sure things. But they’re not. You can lose a 99% bet. The system is only broken if that isn’t true.