# New kingdom math

For a while now we have been getting new kingdom every two months. Once you get to the “end game” you start trying to map out plans for the future so I got to thinking about what I need. Looking at Silverglade as an example we get:

1x common
2x rare
2x ultra-rare
2x epic (one from quest, one during event week)
1x legendary

Legendary requires 6 to mythic. At a drop rate of about 2% from event keys, you’ll need about 300 event keys to ascend it. Maybe more, maybe less, but 300 seems a nice target.

Epics require 16 to mythic. They have a drop rate of about 6.5% from event keys. In the 300 you should get 19 or 20, so plan on 9-10 of each. For the quest, you’ll get 1 for free, 3 from snotstone event, 9-10 from chests for a total of 13-14. For the event one you can supplement your chest drops with glory purchases. With good luck, 300 chests will cover it. With less good you might need another 50 chests.

Ultra-rares requires 41 to mythic. My notes show a 70% drop rate from event keys, so 210 from your 300. Far more than enough to ascend the two URs to mythic.

Rares require 91 to mythic, and don’t come from event keys. There are 61 rares in game currently, likely a few between now and then, and 2 with kingdom, so plan on a 1 in 65 chance for a specific rare. They have a 50% drop rate from glory keys, so you’d need about 130 (on average!) to get one of each. Works out to 11,800 glory keys to get enough of every rare to ascend them all. They also have a 16% drop rate from gold keys. Doing the same math says 35,500 gold keys.

Commons require 191 to mythic and only come from gold keys. There are 52 in game currently (guardians don’t count), another one or two before, and one with kingdom, so a 1 in 54 chance. They have a 50% drop rate from gold keys, which means 108 keys for one of each. Or 20,600 for enough to ascend all.

If we assume 20,000 gold keys, that would also get you about 52 of the rares. Leaving you needing 39 from glory keys, which comes out to about 5000 glory keys.

So, all told, if you want to take a new kingdom to 5* on day 1 of the event you should bank on:
350 Event keys
5,000 glory keys
20,000 gold keys

The gold, glory, gems from the horde of keys should be enough to target additional chests if chance goes against you.

Footnote: Considering 8 weeks between kingdoms, you’d need to average:
44 Event keys per week
625 Glory keys per week (via some combo of guild tasks, glory pack purchases, or 20 glory each)
2500 Gold keys per week (via some combo of guild tasks, glory pack purchases, or 300 gold each)

Trying to do this would mean not burning glory keys for chances at Mythics each month though.

Footnote 2: Each subsequent Kingdom will require more gold/glory keys due to pool dilution. But if you are ok waiting, you can only burn half the totals each Kingdom. Doing this will complete the previous kingdom, for example going half at Silverglade release would get the commons/rares up to legendary. Then when you do it for Suncrest you will get Silverglade’s to mythic at the same time as Suncrest’s to legendary.

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42 Event
396 Glory Keys
670 Gold Keys

Getting tier 1 PVP is another 46 Glory Keys

16 Glory Pack purchases (my normal target, gets 2 ascensions) is 32 Glory Keys and 160 Gold keys

Brings weekly total to:
42 Event
428 Glory Keys
830 Gold Keys

You also get gold keys from Tribute. When I ran the numbers before I got 9.5 gold keys per tribute with all kingdoms at 3*+ and guild bonus. 10 tributes per day (some get more, some get less, so this is quite variable), would be 95/day or 665/week

Brings weekly total to:
42 Event
428 Glory Keys
1495 Gold Keys

So you’d still need
2 Event keys (30 gems, although snotstone rewards and leveling beyond 1000 should be adequate)
200 Glory keys (~4000 glory)
1000 Gold keys (~300,000 gold)

Each week. It is certainly possible. Splurges of glory on arcane packs would cut into it, and it wouldn’t leave any glory keys for Mythic chasing. It does leave over 550 gems and all the gem keys unused each week, roughly enough for 50 VIP chests and 250 gem keys each month.

It all boils down to your goals, short term vs long term, and if you are willing to stockpile for targeted times. And Luck. Always Luck.

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One thing I haven’t seen considered here is that you can get Epics that don’t belong to the current event kingdom. While recording my first 300 event keys on Silverglade week, in addition to epics for the kingdom I also got:
1 Scarlett
4(!) Tassarion
2 Rowanne

For the kingdom itself, I got 7 Elspeth and 17 Silvermaiden - actually higher than your 6.5% estimate for just kingdom droops, but also extremely skewed toward the Silvermaiden. Sometime in the next 150 keys, which I did not record each instance of but have a bunch of screenshots around the time, I obtained 3 more Elspeths and 3 more Silvermaiden, still leaving Silvermaiden way way in the lead on overall drops. So, in practice, I spent 450 event keys for this milestone and it put Elspeth just within reach. This was roughly in line with my original estimates of 350 to 500 event keys, without going hard into the math, and just based on my experiences with the relative drops in Blackhawk. In addition to this, I ended up spending around 2500 glory keys and 28500 gold keys to fill out the other requirements. This is pretty much on point with your common/rare estimates above and my initial estimates as well.

So heres where it all breaks down… In my experience, the event key drops are also at least somewhat weighted toward the “you can win” (and possibly extending to the other troop that can be purchased with glory), despite other troops in that same rarity tier being in the kingdom. This one is mostly anecdotal, however, since I don’t have any hard data to back it up. For myself, during Glacial Peaks event I got a lot more Yeti than Frost Wolf; during BlackHawk, I got many more Bonnie Rose than Lil’ Johnny Bronze before even purchasing any glory packs; and during Silverglade, I ended up with 20 Silvermaiden (again, before purchasing any from glory packs) by the time I had 16 Elspeth - and two of those Elspeth game from glory keys, one from the quest, and three from snotstones, so I essentially got twice as many Silvermaiden from event keys. I unfortunately did not record the exact number of Keys to get the ratio of Incubus to Twisted Hero dropped when hunting for Dark Monolith, so I’ll have to collect more data when the next legendary hits. Could just be bad luck on my part, but its too much of a trend to just ignore. I’ll be paying special attention to the drops when the next legendary and next kingdom roll out for sure.

Ultra-rares can also come from other kingdoms, but you’ll have so many more of them by the time you finish legendaries and epics that they should never be the bottleneck. While I was recording, I noted the only ultra-rares I got that that did not belong to the kingdom were Druids, Treants, and Yeti, getting more Druids and Treants than Yetis (probably a coincidence in this case), but actually has me wondering what methodology there is to “other” troops in kingdom chests, but that is a discussion for another time. Regardless, going back and looking at the footage, 52 of the ultra-rare drops in my initial 300 keys were not from the current kingdom, while 187 were either Enchantress or Unicorn. Still an over 60% droprate for your target kingdom, and even if the kingdom releases with three ultra-rares and only one epic/legendary, you’ll still have way way more than you need by the time you complete legendaries and epics.

On the resource side, our guild pulls away from Glory Keys in favor of always finishing the others, so my strategy is a bit different here. I’m on the high side of tribute collects, so I have plenty of gold keys to finish every other kingdom without spending any gold, which I can decide if/when I see how good of a spread I got from just event keys. Tributes account for at least a third of my monthy gems, which is also left out of the calculation. I use almost exclusively gems on VIP chests when attempting mythics, because it is twice as efficient as any other resource, trying to save the others for new kingdom releases, and only bother with other keys if I really want the mythic. Event keys also can be supplemented by the 60 revenge battles, or buying then with 180 glory as well, which, going forward, is what I will be doing if I ever run into that wall rather than buying them with gems. Barring new kingdom rares, which I am going heavier on Gold Keys anyway, chances of getting something I need in 9 glory keys is much smaller than the chances of getting something I need in 1 event key.

As far as event keys many event keys are going to be eaten up by upcoming event legendaries, though, this is going to heavily eat into that supply. On average, you’ll need 100 more event keys per new legendary, but spitting out 300 for a single copy is not unheard of, and this will be even worse when they start adding third legendaries. There is often at least one legendary between new kingdoms, in this case, two. If we tack this onto the cost, we’ll need to earn 200 more event keys between kingdom releases somehow.

I’m still sticking to my estimate of at least 450 event keys for just the kingdom, plus accounting for an average of 100 spent every time a new legendary pops up. At this point, it would be extremely foolish not to prioritize getting at least one of each new event legendary if you have the resources to do so given how bad the drop rate is when they hit the general drop pool (not to mention the four week wait).

So overall, adjusting for resources I personally find easier to get, my estimates are:

~650 event keys (450 or equivalent saved going into the event week)
~2000 glory keys (my guild and PvP tiers and glory pack purchases get about 250 a week)
~30k glory keys (guild, tributes and number of glory packs purchased puts me at 2k or more gold keys per week in total)

Or a weekly total of:
81.25 event keys
250 glory keys
3750 gold keys

Which means, beyond what I get every week, I’d still need per week:

• 39.25 event keys - 529-588 gems (depending on bought in bulk or not) OR 7065 glory, or some combination of both (slightly less with event rewards, revenges, and extra levels). This is less glory than it sounds like, especially if you shy away from buying glory packs on weeks where you get the troops you need incidentally in the process hunting for a new legendary. Spending an average 5500 glory per week when there is not a legendary in the event key drops and zero when there is leaves a total of 33,000 glory for the 8 week period spent on glory packs, or 4125 per week. This leaves a total value of 11190 glory to collect per week and still break even toward this goal, without needing to spend a single gem toward event keys. This is most certainly possible with full seven star kingdoms, maxed statue bonuses for tributes, frequent collects for tributes, glory from PvP, guild, and opening the 20k+ gold keys at the end of your eight weeks, without even dipping into legendary tasks.

• 0 extra glory keys (burn everything you have for chances at new kingdom troops when it hits, you want to avoid this drop pool as much as possible)

• 1750 gold keys - ~525k gold (this number can be adjusted down if more glory keys are obtained, or guild keys are used to supplement while at 20k seals, or just by waiting a bit longer for more gold keys). If I were getting every guild task every week, as with many that would even attempt this, this “extra” gold needed here would be in the realm of only 100-150k, still without having to supplement glory into glory keys. Chances are, if you are doing this every kingdom, you’ll still have to stock at least this much gold per week on average to ensure you reach the goal for just commons, though, at least until nine star kingdoms are possible and prevalent. And that is assuming nine star comes before enough troops have been added to significantly increase the number of gold keys required.

And of course still luck. Lots of luck.

If event keys are supplemented with glory, this still allows for every gem and gem key obtained to hunt for mythics. Otherwise, (with no legendary tasks) you’d only be able to afford <50 VIP keys a month along with whatever gem keys you saved. Some people have had luck with glory keys dropping mythics, but the stated relative droprates are not in your favor to use glory keys for this purpose, and gem keys don’t have the volume to significantly contribute to new kingdoms, nor can they drop rares, and you’ll have plenty of Ultra-Rares regardless.

All this makes it unlikely to get every event legendary and still have something left to hunt for mythics after just finishing Silverglade in the first week as well with “only” completing every single guild task every week and collecting tributes 16 times a day. I therefore probably wont bother completing the next one right away unless the skill bonus is good, the troops are decent, and my gold key numbers are close enough to make the common/rare bottleneck possible within a month of the kingdom releasing or with whatever gold I have on hand. Still definitely doable though through careful planning even without Legendary Tasks, if I played enough, so those that do legendary tasks should be able to plan for it easily. If mythic ascending commons are not possible, though, I have no reason to spend more than a few hundred gold keys (unless the troops are exceptional), because I can then get Suncrest AND the next kingdom’s commons to mythic in the same week, and be “caught up” on every second kingdom release rather that always being two months behind.

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I’d forgotten that only the legendary are forced to be event kingdom while the others are just “heavily weighted”.

My data for event key drops is very small (actually, it is taken from gem keys, but sample size was still too small to be reliable). I’ll start recording data to get better numbers, not just of rarity, but kingdom vs non-kingdom results.

For the weekly legendary drops, I’m not too concerned with getting them to mythic asap. The chances of needing that last level in order to raise a kingdom PL is very small except for hitting 5* with just 8 troops where it is required. But using around 100 to get at least one certainly makes sense.

Good write up, thanks for weighing in. It is nice to see how others approach the game.

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I’ve got a whole complicated strategy around this, but my personal take was
550-700 event keys
26K gold keys
3K glory keys
50 VIP keys (to finish off the non-event epic)
I think that’s about what I used to get silverglade up a couple days after the event. I have a spreadsheet somewhere. You guys are on point though.

After this, I hear cities will be every 3 months, so that will make it easier to level them.

None of the Above
Unrepentant

Was pondering. 20,000 gold chests. Each have a 3% chance at giving glory as a result, so you’d expect 600 of them to give glory. And you get 20 glory when it comes up. So 600*20 = 12,000 glory from 20,000 gold chests, in addition to all the troops and stuff. Same logic says about 300 gems and 300k gold.

So if you do bank 20,000 gold chests, in addition to all the commons/rares you’ll have enough to also buy an extra 20 Event keys, 600 Glory keys, and another 1k Gold keys.

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I’ve got 17.3K gold keys banked so far and we have 4 weeks, so I should have 25-26K. I remeber I spent about 26K gold keys last time and I think it was 9-12K glory range, so I can confirm that part of the numbers, but I think it was a lot less gems than I expected.

From what I’ve read the chance for gems is 1% and you get 1 or 2. So 1.5 gems per 100 chests, 150 per 10k, 300 for 20k. But as with any random event, results will vary

I’m sitting on 14k atm, so hoping for about 20-22k when Suncrest drops. I intend to track the drops to get a good gauge of drop rates.

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@Rasper Remind me later, we should compare spreadsheets, I’ll try to keep track as well.

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Counting troops and stones is trivial. Counting glory is easy as it is 20 per. Gold, souls, and gems are a bit iffier.

Gold averages at 500 per I think. Souls run from 20-40. Gems 1 or 2.

So it can be hard to distinguish 2 soul drops of 20 and a gem drop of 2 from 1 soul drop of 40 and 2 gem drops of 1.

When I do my counts for gold keys, I do it per 1,000. So I count off 1 through 20 and then record numbers. I don’t bother with souls, just gems, glory and new city card counts.

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Some more data regarding event key weighting toward the “you can win” troop.

210 Event Keys during Suncrest event got me 8 copies of Tezca and 17 copies of Azquila. This is consistent anecdotal reports of the last two new kingdom events heavily weighting toward the Epic that is currently in the glory pack.

This time I got extremely lucky with my 5k glory keys, pulling four copies of Tezca (the average for this amount of keys would have been two), and also lucky with event keys (above average amount of epics pulled total AND on the nose with estimated weighting of questline epic vs glory pack epic). I’ve yet to go through my gold keys, but I have a stash of about 30k, so I don’t think this one is going to be a problem.

I’d still recommend 450+ event keys (or glory/gem equivalent) to consistently five star a new kingdom, along with 22k (plus about 1k per kingdom released since this one). Piles* of glory keys can start shaving the number of needed Event Keys down by getting those essential preliminary copies of the questline epic. For every 2500 or so glory keys you have now (this amount will increase by roughly 30 per epic added to the game), you can cut your hard estimate of event keys by roughly 37, down to a minimum of about 250 event keys. 250 is the minimum number I would bring because of the overall (increasing) unreliability of Glory Keys to give you useful drops, even with quanitites in the tens of thousands.

Gem keys, unfortunately, still won’t help you a whole lot for new kingdoms given the quantities they are handed out in, since you’ll currently need to open an average of about 700 gem chests per questline epic drop (and this number will increase by about 8 per epic added to the game). Since current estimates put mythics at about 1 in 1000 from gem chests, it is probably better to save these as a buffer for mythic releases.

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Yeah, while the site was up that listed exact drop rates I saw that Tezca and Garuda had roughly same chance while Prince Arugula was much higher.

Sadly, with the changes to the API the site is broken now

Next Kingdom is a bit different though. The “event week” troop will be an Ultra-Rare not an Epic, so I’d expect the two epics to have similar drop rates.

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I didn’t notice this critical detail in the schedule. Thanks for pointing it out @Rasper .

The ultra-rare is already easy to get automatically. If they do this, it will be more challenging to get both epics to mythic. That raises the bar for getting the kingdom to 5 stars on the first week. They may have the same drop rates, but it seems like one card will always lag behind the other (like when chasing rares).

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From the looks of it, the extra weighting bias toward “you can win” epic during the past three new kingdom events was artificially inflating the number of keys you needed to fill out your requirements for the storyline epic, not the other way around. From the data I have gathered, epics are close to 1 in 8 chance (about 12.5%) from Gem Chests (and by extension Event Chests). Event chests appear to be weighted toward the kingdom and weighted even more more toward the “you can win”. My estimates also show legendaries at about a 1/42 from gem chests and about a 1 in 168 chance from glory chests, which tracks with what the above-referenced site was showing before it lost access to the API.

With a more even weighting on both kingdom epics (assuming there are two), you’ll need less chests, not more, somewhere in the range of ~370 rather than ~450, so long as there is not an extra bias toward epics that aren’t from the kingdom. It is interesting to note that in my trials this week, I pulled zero epics from outside the kingdom in 210 event keys, which is why I finished it with so few keys. Normally, about 25-30% of the total drops pulled would be from a collection of a few specific epics from outside the kingdom that are added to the drop pool. Either they omitted the extraneous epic drops from the pool this week (I didn’t do my chest pulls until yesterday, which was right after a patch, so maybe even by mistake?), or I got extremely lucky.

There has never been any indication that weighting toward the “you can win” troop changes the weighting of any troop outside its own rarity class. For example, Garuda is still pretty dang to my estimates of 1/42, both from the chest site and from compiled data.

Basically, having the ultra-rare be the thing with additional weighting will more likely make it so you need slightly less keys to finish the kingdom, since it won’t be an epic from the kingdom that is specifically weighted away from that bottlenecks you anymore whichever one you were “less lucky” at getting. In this scenario, given equal weighting, you need four more copies of the non-questline epic to start with, so that will more than likely be the bottleneck unless you get lucky. And the ultra-rare, even weighted against, will be mythic regardless by the time you finish both.

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[quote=“Mithran, post:15, topic:19921, full:true”] It is interesting to note that in my trials this week, I pulled zero epics from outside the kingdom in 210 event keys, which is why I finished it with so few keys. Normally, about 25-30% of the total drops pulled would be from a collection of a few specific epics from outside the kingdom that are added to the drop pool. Either they omitted the extraneous epic drops from the pool this week (I didn’t do my chest pulls until yesterday, which was right after a patch, so maybe even by mistake?), or I got extremely lucky.
[/quote]

fyi, the drop details on suncrest event week are:

Garuda: 2.4%
Tezca: 2.5%
Prince Arugula: 5.8%
Ifrit: 0.4%
Amira: 0.4%
Visk: 0.4%

(data pulled before the site died). Legendary at 2.4% = 1 in 42. Epic total at 9.4% = 1 in 10.6

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Okay, for 20k gold keys I got 194 copies of the common (slightly ahead of estimate). The 20k gold keys plus the 5083 glory keys I opened only put me at 79 copies of owleth, and it took 8,550 more gold keys to get the remaining twelve. I had 94 heronath at the 20k gold key/5k glory key mark, and 103 when I was finished. Given perfect distribution between the two, I could have got out of it at about 25k gold keys and 5k glory keys. So I’m revising my estimates for gold keys to be a bit higher for the next kingdom unless I get much more glory keys instead - 27k+ gold keys with ~5k glory keys, less with more glory keys but no less than 22k gold keys due to the common bottleneck.

My estimates back up those stats… I couldn’t be bothered to open those keys though because I also need to get too many more copies of Tezca…

Necro Bump, new kingdom coming in July. Been a while, so figured I’d lay out what we are looking at.

Commons: 57 currently, 1 from Urskaya will be added (6 guardians and 6 guild wars aren’t in chests) for 58 total. Need 191 for Mythic, 1 common per 2 chests on average so 58 * 191 * 2 = 22,156. So you’ll want to shoot for 22k keys, to be “safe”.

Rares: 65 currently, 2 from Urskaya for 67 total. Requires 91 to Mythic for a total of 67 * 91 = 6097 rares. From the 22k gold keys you should get 3667 rares, that leaves 2430. At 1 per 2 chests you’ll need 4860 glory chests. Shoot for 5k, to be “safe”.

Ultra-Rares: You’ll easily get 41 of each UR from the Event keys, so no use worrying about it.

Epics: Urskaya differs a bit here. 2 epics, but neither are part of the Urskaya glory sales, so you’ll need to score both from event keys. You’ll get one from doing quest line, and 3 more from the snotstones during event week, but as they will likely be the same Epic, you’re left needing 16 of each from keys. 32 Epics, at a 8% drop rate, would mean 400 event keys! And that is if the 8% is accurate and if they have the same drop rate. This is the most uncertain portion. I’d shoot for 400 keys, but be prepared to drop some gems/glory if you come up short.

Legendary: At a 2.5% drop rate the 400 keys will produce about 10, more than enough to Mythic.

You’ve got about 5 weeks to save up resources.
22,000 gold keys (this will net enough gold for an extra 1,000 keys if you come up short from rng)
5,000 glory keys
400 event keys
~1,000 gems, in the event of bad luck

May the odds ever be in your favor…

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And there’s an Event Legendary week after next to cause tough decisions about spending Event Keys…

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