So today I go into my mail and find 36 glory keys waiting for me, excited, I use every one of them and pull a brand new legendary missing from my collection… Crimson Bat, and I have enough arcane stones to third trait him when I get the common stones I’m missing. So the team I have right now is
Red/Yellow banner
Soothslayer (3 traits)
Valkyrie (3 traits)
Crimson Bat (soon to be 3 traits)
Soothslayer (3 traits)
So anyhow here is the math question:
Assuming Cursed has an equal chance to target any trait (I believe it does) then out of the 3 triggers, what is the likelihood at least one of them will target health to buff Bats damage
Assuming 25% chance of Cursed hitting each stat, the chance that none of the three hit Health is 0.75^3 = 42%, so there should be a 58% chance that at least one hits Health.
However, that seems high and I run a 2 Bat, 1 Soothsayer team often. But maybe it’s right and I’m suffering confirmation bias - wouldn’t be the first time.
I actually have a 135 IQ but went to an alt school cause of bullying due to my ADD and such so I missed out on a lot, the tester said my cognitive reasoning skills were off the chart tho
Apologies for any confusion. My maths is definitely correct. My doubt was about the initial assumption of 25% each, but I’m going to be more observant in future to see whether it holds. Certainly an even chance of each would be easiest to code and most intuitive for the devs.
Edit: @Ozball, if you want to know how my formula gets the same answer more quickly, PM me.
If anything I should be the one apologising for the confusion with my initial shoddy math I had initially started working it out and replying when there were no replies, and it wasn’t till after I hit submit that I realised that there had been other replies in the meantime.
As a mathematically inclined person i shall return to throw my hat at this math problem.
this is going to be fun but to save on my normal "spammy method i will try to make this make sense in one post.
And I belive you are referring to cursed having slightly less chance to reduce magic, which in terms gives more chance to reduce one of the 3 remaining including health.
This has to due with multiple chances happening at once so in order to solve this we need to know the probability of them all happening. 25% 3 times.
25% then roll another 25% then roll another 25%
so 25% chance to hit health and then the next trait hitting health would be 1:8 chance as there are 8 options as both have to hit the same option twice.
Now you have another 4 options in the mix when you roll another 25% therefore you would multiply it by another 25%
What you get is 1:4 for one roll, 1:8 for two rolls and 1:64 for three rolls.
That means there is a 1.6 percent chance all three traits will hit health.
I had initially started working it out and replying when there were no replies, and it wasn’t till after I hit submit that I realised that there had been other replies in the meantime.