Help with math as it pertains to Cursed and Bats


#1

So today I go into my mail and find 36 glory keys waiting for me, excited, I use every one of them and pull a brand new legendary missing from my collection… Crimson Bat, and I have enough arcane stones to third trait him when I get the common stones I’m missing. So the team I have right now is

Red/Yellow banner
Soothslayer (3 traits)
Valkyrie (3 traits)
Crimson Bat (soon to be 3 traits)
Soothslayer (3 traits)

So anyhow here is the math question:
Assuming Cursed has an equal chance to target any trait (I believe it does) then out of the 3 triggers, what is the likelihood at least one of them will target health to buff Bats damage


#2

Assuming 25% chance of Cursed hitting each stat, the chance that none of the three hit Health is 0.75^3 = 42%, so there should be a 58% chance that at least one hits Health.

However, that seems high and I run a 2 Bat, 1 Soothsayer team often. But maybe it’s right and I’m suffering confirmation bias - wouldn’t be the first time. :slight_smile:


#3

Thanks, I’m very basic math tells me to add them together to end up with 3/4 or 75% chance


#4

doesn’t work that way.


#5

Lol I know


#6

I actually have a 135 IQ but went to an alt school cause of bullying due to my ADD and such so I missed out on a lot, the tester said my cognitive reasoning skills were off the chart tho


#7

Sorry to hear that Cell, great to have you here in the board. Very good pull, mate! :slight_smile:


#8

Yay some practice for the probability subject I’m taking at the moment!

Assuming it’s an equal chance between all traits, that means a 25% chance to hit any trait (Health, Armour, Magic, Attack). (or 0.25)

Doing this over 3 chances we get 0.25+0.25+0.25 - (0.250.250.25) which equals 0.734375 or around 73.44%

Not 100% sure this is right… but I think it is?

EDIT: so while I was working that out @actreal posted a different number… I’m more inclined to believe his to be honest…


#9

am thats pretty close to 75%


#10

Yeah, I think I’m messing up the math somewhere…

EDIT: Yeah I did, I was trying to extend a 2 variable formula to 3 variables, and forgot to include some extra stuff… Will fix it up in a couple min.

EDIT2: @actreal was about right really…
The formula for the probability of 3 independent events is P(A)+P(B)+P©-P(AB)-P(AC)-P(BC)+P(ABC)

0.250.25 = 0.0625
0.25
0.25*0.25 = 0.015625

Therefor
0.25+0.25+0.25-0.0625-0.0625-0.0625+0.015625 = 0.578125 or 57.81%


#11

Apologies for any confusion. My maths is definitely correct. My doubt was about the initial assumption of 25% each, but I’m going to be more observant in future to see whether it holds. Certainly an even chance of each would be easiest to code and most intuitive for the devs.

Edit: @Ozball, if you want to know how my formula gets the same answer more quickly, PM me.


#12

If anything I should be the one apologising for the confusion with my initial shoddy math :stuck_out_tongue: I had initially started working it out and replying when there were no replies, and it wasn’t till after I hit submit that I realised that there had been other replies in the meantime.


#13

1,56% chance that all 3 cursed traits will take down life. If anyone ever get this please let me know. :slight_smile:


#14

1 in every 64 fights is pretty frequent for a hardcore player… :stuck_out_tongue:


#15

So true! :wink:


#16

I misread Bat’s 3rd trait, I thought his spells would do double damage but it’s just his skull matches


#17

As a mathematically inclined person i shall return to throw my hat at this math problem.
this is going to be fun but to save on my normal "spammy method i will try to make this make sense in one post.


#18

And I belive you are referring to cursed having slightly less chance to reduce magic, which in terms gives more chance to reduce one of the 3 remaining including health.


#19

This has to due with multiple chances happening at once so in order to solve this we need to know the probability of them all happening. 25% 3 times.
25% then roll another 25% then roll another 25%
so 25% chance to hit health and then the next trait hitting health would be 1:8 chance as there are 8 options as both have to hit the same option twice.
Now you have another 4 options in the mix when you roll another 25% therefore you would multiply it by another 25%
What you get is 1:4 for one roll, 1:8 for two rolls and 1:64 for three rolls.
That means there is a 1.6 percent chance all three traits will hit health.


#20

@Sirrian would you be willing to tell us if cursed has an equal chance for all 4 possible stats?