Help with math as it pertains to Cursed and Bats

Gameplay Chat (PC/Mobile)
21

I hope my math is properly supported.

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22

tomanny recurring variable.

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How so? 25% chance for each of the casts (AB’C’, A’BC’, A’B’C), minus the possibilities of ABC’, AB’C, and A’BC to avoid duplication, and add the chance of all three occurring (ABC).

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Think of rolling a dice. 1:6 so there are 6 possible outcomes. roll it again and the dice has 12 possible outcomes, 6 for each dice. what are the chances of rolling 3 dice? 3 dice with 6 sides each is 18 sides it can land on but that is additive. we want multiplicative as the variable is not about the 3 dice but in the rerolling of one dice. I think.
The hardest part of this is not knowing the answer but proving that the answer is correct.

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25

Another math nerd here. There will be another math post from me regarding tribute chances.

EDIT: Nevermind, I already found such a post: Kingdom Tribute--the math - #7 by Namour

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26

Depends what we’re trying to work out. If you’re trying to figure out the chance of having all three cursed hit life points, then yes you multiply the chances together, getting 1.5625% (as I showed in my post) or 1.6% as you said. However if we’re looking for just any one of the chances happening, then it’s a different situation.

Taking the dice example:
1/6 chance to get a 1 roll.

So that would be 1/6+1/6+1/6-1/36-1/36-1/36+1/216 = 42.1296%

Or if we use @actreal’s method:
The chance of NOT getting a 1 on a single die is 5/6, and raise that to the 3rd power to account for three dice gives us 57.87% chance of not getting any 1’s, which when reversed (100-57.87) means we have 42.13% chance of getting a 1.

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27

With the power of math i think we have solved it.

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28

Okay. I think I’ve worked out why the 58% chance seems high.

It’s because Bloodsucking only triggers when Health is below the starting Health, so if any Troop has one of the +2 Life traits, then Cursed has to hit Health more than once for Bloodsucking to work from the first move.

So with zero Life bonuses, it’s 58%.
With 1 Life bonus, it’s 19%.
With 2 Life bonuses, only 1.6%.

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29

I noticed the life gain/bloodsucking thing but didn’t know how to figure out the numbers

30

Wait so on PC/Mobile, Blessed/Cursed will hit a different stat on each enemy Troop?

Because on Consoles, Blessed and Cursed hit the same stat for all 4 targets. Every single time.

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No they hit the same stat

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32

Then the odds to hit Life is simply 25% as there are 4 stats.

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33

The stats lowered/increased from cursed/blessed, will hit the same stat for each troop for each instance triggered.
So if you have 1 troop with cursed, and it hits attack, it’ll lower attack on all 4 enemies,
If you have 2 troops with cursed then the first will lower the same stat on all 4 troops and the second will lower another random stat on all four troops (maybe the Same stat as the 1st or a 2nd)

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Yup, nothing about that changes the fact that, with each time Blessed or Cursed activates, it has a 1/4 chance (25%) to hit a specific stat.

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I think what @actreal was saying is that, if the troops have +2 health bonuses to start, and you have three troops that curse (as the OP stated), then:

  • To start the fight with immediate Bloodsucking capability, all three of your curses must curse health; and
  • The odds of that happening are (1/4)^3, or ~1.56%.
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36

Amazing what fully explaining yourself can do.

Wish it happened more…

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