Have Mythic drop rates been secretly reduced?

Having just spent over 200,000 Glory and 30,000 Seals without getting The Wild King, I checked the in-game drop rates.

Is it my imagination, or did the Glory Key drop rate for Mythics used to be 1 in 1000? (It’s currently showing as 1 in 10,000.)

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Looks the same to me, always was VIP at 1% (before traitstones were removed as single reward)
Then Gem or guild(at 40k seals) was 0.1%
and glory was 0.01%

Thanks. Guess I’m just having a terrible month, then. :cry:

That’s 2.5 times the average amount needed to pull a mythic. Definitely unlucky, still reasonably likely to happen though.

I managed to pull 1 on both my accounts within 10,000 guild seals on each (10,000 on main account and 6,000 on alt).

That’s just the way RNG works. Some people get really lucky and other’s don’t. I’ve definitely had weeks where I go on a massive resource dump and get nothing.

= 10,000 glory chests then? That is the correct amount needed to average one Mythic drop, but the RNG still carries a ~38% chance of a total losing streak (aka. zero Mythic drops per 10,000 chests).

the math

(If the probability of a Mythic drop is 1/N then the probability of everything else is, obviously, (N-1)/N. Thus, a losing streak across N attempts is ( (N-1)/N) ^ N which quickly converges to 1/e as N increases.)

This is incorrect, it uses N both for the chance of getting a mythic in one pull and N for the number of pulls made. However, the two values are independent. As the number of pulls made increases the chance of getting a mythic in each pull does not change.

If the variable for the number of pulls is changed to M, then the losing streak across M attempts is ((N-1)/N) ^ M. This converges to zero as M increases, which is what you’d expect because if you have an infinite stack of keys you will eventually pull the mythic.

No, read it again.

I described it as (N=M) because it specifically has an expected value of (1/N * M = 100%), thus a reasonable expectation of seeing a Mythic drop during the batch – but the paradox of probability and expected values is how the probability of no Mythic drops for that batch size is actually significant (almost 40%) pretty much regardless of whether it’s 100 VIP Chests, 1,000 Gem Chests or 10,000 Glory Chests being opened.