Gem Dragon Egg - RNG Will Not Give 6th Dragon

@Hayabusa Just collect tributes a ton and you can buy a few Dragonite packs a week, as you already got the 6 dragons, nothing will go to waste.

I can’t collect more than 2 or 3 tributes each day usually. And I need all of my gems to buy resources in the dungeon (for crafting weapons), and to participate in events. When I’m done with weapons, I need them to start crafting mythics instead. So 2025 is pretty realistic, since it’s about 2-3 months between perfect dungeon runs.

Unfortunately I have to skip most vault events due to work on 95% of the weekends (10-12 hours every Friday, Saturday and Sunday). And those weekends I used my holidays for the vault event, Devs postponed them to another date …

In this endeavour, I’m on the “lucky” end of the spectrum. I opened up my 8th Gem Dragon Egg back on Monday – I refuse to purchase Dragonite with Gems, so I’m stuck with perfect Dungeon runs and the occasional Gnome – and that was my 6th different dragon. So now I just need the currency for the two weapons and Diamantina after that.

(I also received all three Bright Forest mythics from the same batch of 200 event keys on Monday. Which was also good because I was waiting for Vernalis to come around in the Soulforge for lack of a copy.)

On the other hand… I still don’t have the Hoard Mimic after more than a year of the thing being out and an awful lot of trying. So it balances out.

I have the Hoard Mimic and also 6 different dragons. But it took me 6 years to get Zuul’Goth and High King Irongut. And I’m still waiting for many mythics like King Bloodwood, TINA-9000, Grey King, Fountain of Stars, Pharos-Ra, Elemaugrim, Gaard’s Avatar, Queen Aurora, Stonehammer, Archproxy Yvendra, Enraged Kurandara, Fallen Valdis, Ironhawk, Medusa or Shabanu Vespera among many other mythics. That probably equals out too.

@Hayabusa Ah I see, you prioritize other things than Diamantina. Also sounds like you are fine with it, so all good then I suppose.

This troops are cosmetic. Weapons they allow to craft are cosmetic too. I have got four different, I have got five purple (ametist???) but I don’t care. It’s just for collection, I am not in hurry

Not really, no. The normal dragons are good, Diamantina is S tier, and the third Ring is also quite good.

The first two rings suck, though.

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I’ve got 2 Emeraldins and 1 Garnetaerlin also.

Seeing duplicates before haveing all of them is annoying.

27th Dragon was Rubirath, my 1st, and now have 5 unique dragons.


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Hope you are lucky getting the 6th dragon, or else you may go over 50 summons easily.

I was so excited to get my first dragon, Sapphirax. Then when it took me forever to go for another one, I got the same one again. So I’ll never do it again, and just be happy with what I have. (was really upset though). I was like, “That figures.” :roll_eyes:

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The fact that some people need 30+ eggs to get all six and others only need 6 is evidence that this type of thing really shouldn’t be in the game in this form, unless it’s impossible to spend actual money. It’s taking the whole gambling mechanics to ridiculous levels. With each dragon you get, the % for getting it again should be reduced and set to 0 once you have 3. That would still mean particularly unlucky people could take ages to get them, but at least it would be somewhat fair. The same applies to the other gambling mechanics in the game. While people love “winning”, they also hate losing and feeling ripped off, so from a psychological perspective, people will be more engaged overall if they are not at the mercy of extremely unfavourable rng all of the time.

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Part of the problem is that because each Gem Dragon Egg is an independent roll, there’s always a chance of a losing streak across N rolls, and a “fair RNG” (to use the mathematical term) in fact IS allowed to produce very unlikely streaks, because to impose any kind of rule on a given roll (such as “no more than 4 ofeach dragon”) by definition means future rolls are no longer independent from past rolls.

We like to say that if the probability is 1 in 6 then the “expected value” is 6 eggs – which is true, analytically, but we overlook how this leaves approximately a 37% (=1/e) chance of the RNG giving you an unlucky streak (i.e. zero desired outcomes) across 6 eggs. That’s right, nearly 40 percent of the time crafting a batch of 6 eggs will not give you that final dragon, even though the RNG actually is being fair about it.

The calculations
  • Let “D” be the “drop rate” for your next new dragon (in this case, = 1/6)
  • Let “N” be any number of cumulative eggs crafted (assume this is all in one batch, for simplicity).
  • Expected value is broadly defined as D * N, so if we want an expected value of 100% then D * N = 1 meaning if D=1/6 then N=6, super basic probability stuff, nothing unusual here.
  • The chance of a total losing streak (1-D) across N attempts is: 100% - (100% - D) ^ N. Again, still just basic probability here. Curiously, for an expected value of 100% (D*N=1) this probability trends upward towards 1/e (about 37%) the rarer the drop rate is.
  • Since we are really only interested in getting one copy of each Gem Dragon, the above can itself be compiled into a single probability – i.e. if you craft 6 eggs you have an approximately 63% chance of receiving “at least one” copy of the elusive final dragon. (The possibility of getting more than one copy is why the expected value calculates so much higher)
  • Which means we can perform some algebra: if you want a cumulative probability of getting that last dragon, the number of eggs you need can actually be calculated as: N = log(1 - D) / log(C), where “C” is your desired cumulative probability across the whole batch. For example, if you want a cumulative 90% chance of getting that last dragon, you will (statistically) need to craft 13 more eggs. If you want a 99% chance, you will need 26 more.
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Id rather see an even simpler probability. Remove the ones that have been obtained from the possible pulls untill all 6 are obtained. If i have none, all 6 are available to be hatched. Then there are only 5 possible, then 4, etc. All that is random at that point is the order obtained. I hate wasting 500 dragonite on a duplicate. I have no use for duplicates, so why would i want them?

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I expect they won’t do that because it generates less money. While logic would suggest more people would spend money if they knew what they are getting, it seems gambling mechanics generate more cash, as those that do spend end up outspending more people spending less, if you know what I mean. My evidence for this is the proliferation of lootboxes and gambling mechanics in games - there’s got to be a significant reason to litter games with mechanics no one actually likes or wants. OFC if the so-called whales stop spending, the games end up getting shut down rather than the devs thinking of ways to make money more constructively.

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Can’t we just craft the dragons we need instead of relying on RNG? Obviously the recipes would cost more than for a random egg, but when you already have 4 or 5, its really frustrating that you can collect all that dragonite for nothing.

Seriously… these jewel dragons have been around for a while now, and the whales already spent the cash, probably months ago. Isn’t it time to take the “loot box” mentality out of this?

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Supposedly, when Diamonds were first introduced they were also RNG (but now they are a steady grind, albeit slow and actually more expensive than Dragonite). What was the timeline on that?

FINALLY!! 7th egg and now have 4th unique one. And the correct grouping for the crystal ice ring weapon. Just need a lot of dragonite before getting the next dragon.

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28th Dragon was my 7th Amethialas. Still no Topsarth.

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29th Dragon also an Amethialas, my eighth one. Lucky me…

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