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Faction Chest level rewards

A level 10 chest is always the lowest rewards for me. Why??? I get way better rewards for level 7,8 9 chest but 10? Seriously is this a joke or what? 20200607_000232|666x500

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I know what you mean. I would rather get a level 6 or 7 than chest 8, 9 or 10.

2 Likes

I’ve lost track of the number of times a Chest 10 gives me only shards, to the point that I have come to expect it: there’s seemingly an issue (pending somebody with actual data being able to shed some light on this), assuming the probability is not deliberately extra skewed at level 10.
:thinking: :vulcan_salute:

2 Likes

one of reasons i’ve stopped farming delves @ 500
was getting 6 shards from lvl 10 chests…
just not worth it :wink:

1 Like

You probably meant 60 shards, not 6?

The “problem” is the game considers all of the rewards equal, but players place different value on the prizes.

What you think: “This is a level 10 chest, the CPU has to pick ingots or whatever it is I want. There are like, 4 kinds of prize so in 10 rolls I should see at least 2 of each???”

What the computer thinks:

  • “I am going to roll 10 d12, then map the dice faces to a prize.”
  • rolls { 2, 3, 1, 6, 8, 10, 11, 2, 3, 6 }
  • "Congratulations! You win { M Shards, L Shards, S Shards, L Souls, Legendary Ingots, etc. }

(I’m going to make up numbers for illustration, I don’t know the actual prize categories. Someone did that research long ago, when Delves first were created, but this game has no real community so it wasn’t permanently recorded anywhere.)

There are 4 kinds of prize: shards, ingots, souls, gold. But there are multiple “sizes” of each prize. All in all there are about 12 prizes you’re rolling for, and 2-3 “sizes” of each prize. Worse, ingots are subdivided into legendary and mythic. So the prize distribution might look like:

  • 3 prizes (25%) devoted to gold
  • 3 prizes (25%) devoted to souls
  • 2 prizes (16 2/3%) devoted to shards
  • 2 prizes (16 2/3%) devoted to legendary ingots
  • 2 prizes (16 2/3%) devoted to mythic ingots

So to a player it’s more like you’re rolling 10d5 than 10d12. There is a 50% chance each roll will be gold/souls. There is a 66 2/3% chance it will be gold, souls, or shards. So it shouldn’t be uncommon to get 8 prizes worth of gold/souls/shards and only see a pittance of ingots, if that’s what you wanted. You only had a ~16.5% chance for mythic ingots anyway.

So you’ve reduced the odds to a “Roll 10d12 and fail if you don’t roll several 12s”. Those are very slim odds. Roughly 8 1/3% per roll.

I think if it “feels” like you get better prizes from chests at levels {7,8,9}, it’s because those are statistically the most common outcomes of a completed Delve, so the larger sample size lets you see the distribution smooth itself out and play to your confirmation bias. Disagree? Take a few thousand samples in a notebook and prove me wrong! We know the RNG is flawed in GoW.

(There’s an inconsistency in this post as I refined my numbers later, I don’t care to correct it. You can get the point.)

1 Like

I wrote what i meant -> “6” is the number, not 60.
and seeing few of such drops from lvl 6-10 chests made me quit farming daily delves as i see it more time wastefull than rewarding
even if it was a bug, that was fixed over time, i see no sense of farming delves currently

1 Like