Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, elit eget consectetuer adipiscing aenean dolor

# Faction Chest level rewards

A level 10 chest is always the lowest rewards for me. Why??? I get way better rewards for level 7,8 9 chest but 10? Seriously is this a joke or what? 20200607_000232|666x500

3 Likes

I know what you mean. I would rather get a level 6 or 7 than chest 8, 9 or 10.

2 Likes

Iâ€™ve lost track of the number of times a Chest 10 gives me only shards, to the point that I have come to expect it: thereâ€™s seemingly an issue (pending somebody with actual data being able to shed some light on this), assuming the probability is not deliberately extra skewed at level 10.

2 Likes

one of reasons iâ€™ve stopped farming delves @ 500
was getting 6 shards from lvl 10 chestsâ€¦
just not worth it

1 Like

You probably meant 60 shards, not 6?

The â€śproblemâ€ť is the game considers all of the rewards equal, but players place different value on the prizes.

What you think: â€śThis is a level 10 chest, the CPU has to pick ingots or whatever it is I want. There are like, 4 kinds of prize so in 10 rolls I should see at least 2 of each???â€ť

What the computer thinks:

• â€śI am going to roll 10 d12, then map the dice faces to a prize.â€ť
• rolls { 2, 3, 1, 6, 8, 10, 11, 2, 3, 6 }
• "Congratulations! You win { M Shards, L Shards, S Shards, L Souls, Legendary Ingots, etc. }

(Iâ€™m going to make up numbers for illustration, I donâ€™t know the actual prize categories. Someone did that research long ago, when Delves first were created, but this game has no real community so it wasnâ€™t permanently recorded anywhere.)

There are 4 kinds of prize: shards, ingots, souls, gold. But there are multiple â€śsizesâ€ť of each prize. All in all there are about 12 prizes youâ€™re rolling for, and 2-3 â€śsizesâ€ť of each prize. Worse, ingots are subdivided into legendary and mythic. So the prize distribution might look like:

• 3 prizes (25%) devoted to gold
• 3 prizes (25%) devoted to souls
• 2 prizes (16 2/3%) devoted to shards
• 2 prizes (16 2/3%) devoted to legendary ingots
• 2 prizes (16 2/3%) devoted to mythic ingots

So to a player itâ€™s more like youâ€™re rolling 10d5 than 10d12. There is a 50% chance each roll will be gold/souls. There is a 66 2/3% chance it will be gold, souls, or shards. So it shouldnâ€™t be uncommon to get 8 prizes worth of gold/souls/shards and only see a pittance of ingots, if thatâ€™s what you wanted. You only had a ~16.5% chance for mythic ingots anyway.

So youâ€™ve reduced the odds to a â€śRoll 10d12 and fail if you donâ€™t roll several 12sâ€ť. Those are very slim odds. Roughly 8 1/3% per roll.

I think if it â€śfeelsâ€ť like you get better prizes from chests at levels {7,8,9}, itâ€™s because those are statistically the most common outcomes of a completed Delve, so the larger sample size lets you see the distribution smooth itself out and play to your confirmation bias. Disagree? Take a few thousand samples in a notebook and prove me wrong! We know the RNG is flawed in GoW.

(Thereâ€™s an inconsistency in this post as I refined my numbers later, I donâ€™t care to correct it. You can get the point.)

1 Like

I wrote what i meant -> â€ś6â€ť is the number, not 60.
and seeing few of such drops from lvl 6-10 chests made me quit farming daily delves as i see it more time wastefull than rewarding
even if it was a bug, that was fixed over time, i see no sense of farming delves currently

1 Like