Outside of Vault events, obviously.
- Maybe RNG just hates me
Outside of Vault events, obviously.
Heads up, RNG hates you.
It’s also worth noting that we changed the gnome rate for the last vault weekend as a once off, and that it has now returned to normal. This may affect what you are experiencing and how it feels.
Why would it? Is the drop rate trying to balance back out? If so, what’s the point of increasing it in the first place?
We increased it to say sorry for the faction mess up, remember?
It was only for that weekend, which we made clear in our announcement posts across our social platforms.
Yes. And I’m always worried that when that happens or any vault weekend. That RNG is trying to balance out the ratio after the change.
So before a vault weekend it’s 1:30. During a vault weekend it’s set to 1:15. But after the vault weekend it gets set to 1:30 again, but it feels like 1:45 because the AI is trying to balance out the 3 days where the rate was higher.
For that not to happen. Then the AI would have to reset the gnome drop rate after every vault weekend. If that’s already the case then cool. But it feels like it’s not.
The AI doesn’t try to balance out the change. That isn’t how the code works. We made it higher over that specific weekend, and now it has been changed back to what it was before. The AI doesn’t know how to balance out those odds, and hasn’t made it lower to compensate.
This may be off topic. But may I ask why “streaks” occur in RNG then? I always thought it happened when the AI tries to balance out the odds. Like when opening chests and getting the same troop 3 times in a row.
When there is a chance for something to happen in game, our algorithm runs. If there is a 1% chance of something happening, the game calculates that from scratch every time you trigger it. If there is a 1% chance of something happening, there is the possibility that doing something several times with separate 1% chances will still have it happen more than once, or even a few times in a row. Even though the odds are low, it can still happen. It is also worth noting that A LOT of people play Gems of War, so the likelihood of someone encountering a weird streak increases purely due to the fact that there are so many people playing.
There is no limit on the amount of times the 1% chance can happen either. The AI and RNG don’t try to compensate how often something happens if several people happen to get lucky. It won’t skew the numbers and stop other players from having a 1% chance. The 1% chance is static, if that makes sense. Each chance is not affected by the previous chance. Each chance is fresh!
Another way to explain it is with one of my favourite examples…
If you roll a 6 sided dice there is a 1/6 chance of getting a 6. Each time you roll the dice there is a 1/6 chance of getting a 6. This likelihood never changes, you will always have a 1/6 chance of getting a 6. This is how our drop rates and percentage chances work.
I appreciate the explanation and that does make a lot more sense now.
Things like Luck Scrolls and Valravens are not static though right? Each player isn’t allowed to get too lucky or unlucky with them? So the AI must track actions prior to it? It can’t be an independent roll each time. Gnomes and Valravens operate differently though?
Like it’s an entirely possible I could get 3-5 gnomes in a row doing normal matches? But then not have any streak of “bad luck” to compensate for that amazing good luck? I believe that’s what you’re saying and just want to confirm I understand it correctly to put the matter to bed.
Valravens and scrolls work differently, yes.
Gnome spawns work the way I outlined above, as do our chest drops, and our percentage chances of spells in game.
@AMT read this one
Tx @PeperandSalt : it does seem to be independent Probability as per my earlier assumption
More anecdotal “evidence”: I get Pet and Soul Gnomes about 3x as often as even Treasure Gnomes. Jewel Gnomes are quite rare, and my favorite Glory Gnomes seem to be basically extinct in my instance of Krystara.