So… it turns out Valraven rate for these might actually be 30%, and not 25% as originally calculated.
For having 249k points with a full day left, you are already ahead on my original sigils projections for 25%. You’d gotten 8300 base points (with x30 multiplier) so far - a total of 51 clears (2100 for 20 initial clears, 6200 for 31 repeats of stage 20). Because you have an odd number of clears with an even number of starting sigils, an even number per day, and because valravens only grant even amounts of sigils, that means you had to have lost a battle somewhere (nevermind, you still have one left), meaning you’d have at least 52 total plays by this point. Total plays projections that were based on a 25% valraven rate clamped to no more than +1 or -1 ahead of “average”, were based the way this was stated to work and estimates on valraven rate. Based on this, my upper bounds projections were 54 plays at t4 (26 starting sigils, avg plays 52 +/- 2)… after Sunday. But you’d have 56 plays even if you get no valravens tomorrow (a total 15 valravens when the average expectation is 13.5 by the time you hit your 54th play), 58 if you get one (16 valravens when the average expectation is 14 by the time you hit your 56th play). Right now, you have 52 plays from 22 sigils, or 16 valravens when your average expectation should have been 12.5 by your 50th play… which should be impossible unless one or more of the assumptions are incorrect. In fact, a lot of what people are reporting in this thread doesn’t line up with my previous calculations.
Time to redo some projections.
An estimated valraven rate of, say, 30%, would bring the average expected plays for 22 sigils up to 54 or 56, which makes a significant difference on projections. It would also put you back within the stated clamped +1 range (15 expected ravens in 50 plays).
I ran the numbers again against my current invasion progress with t3 purchase, and for others in my guild where we are currently. Should be impossible to be as far as we are with 25% raven rate given the +/- 1 rule, and I’m right on the mark with a 30%. Note that when I originally ran these numbers, everything I checked lined up with the 25% rate… now nothing does. I’m not sure if it was always 30%, or if something changed at some point, I haven’t run these numbers since the first two weeks of these events.
T3 gives 21 initial sigils, so if 30% happens to be the actual valraven rate, t3 should technically be possible with 3 ascencsions and near-perfect run, and a bit of luck. At 51 plays (to get your final valraven needed for 52), you’d have already gotten 15 ravens already with an average expectation of 15.3, and you need to be allowed a 16th for this to be possible, and a 16th should be allowed on your 50th and 51st battles (but still random). You’d also be allowed exactly one non-valraven loss in this case, obviously favoring after you got your final raven (a 17th raven should still be impossible, since your 53rd battle would have an expectation of 15.9 ravens, but it depends on if the +/-1 rule rounds in this scenario).
The new table looks like this (assumes perfect runs and “average” luck with 30% raven rate, so you could miss out if you are right under the line):
