# Bounty Weekend - Droggo

If you’re sitting on a huge pile of gold/glory keys, remember that you can get some gems from opening those… Might not seem like much if you just open a thousand, but I was pretty surprised the day I opened 90k gold keys I’d gotten fed up of having there, just waiting for a new kingdom that we’ll likely never see. Get ready for a LOT of clicking, though

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@Mithran
Does this make Tier 3 possible?

(Not that anyone should. Lol)
Today I scored 54k and started with 4 sigils.

I would take a guess and say no. You got more than the average # of valravens today so that would be the best possible ending you could hope for with only Tier 3. I wonder though would Tier 4 + 1 blue orb be possible?

So in conclusion…
Tier 6 no blue orbs = all rewards (obviously)
Tier 5 no blue orbs = all rewards
Tier 4 + 2 blue orbs = all rewards
Tier 3 + 3 blue orbs = Most likely only reward 19 and not recommended

So… it turns out Valraven rate for these might actually be 30%, and not 25% as originally calculated.

For having 249k points with a full day left, you are already ahead on my original sigils projections for 25%. You’d gotten 8300 base points (with x30 multiplier) so far - a total of 51 clears (2100 for 20 initial clears, 6200 for 31 repeats of stage 20). Because you have an odd number of clears with an even number of starting sigils, an even number per day, and because valravens only grant even amounts of sigils, that means you had to have lost a battle somewhere (nevermind, you still have one left), meaning you’d have at least 52 total plays by this point. Total plays projections that were based on a 25% valraven rate clamped to no more than +1 or -1 ahead of “average”, were based the way this was stated to work and estimates on valraven rate. Based on this, my upper bounds projections were 54 plays at t4 (26 starting sigils, avg plays 52 +/- 2)… after Sunday. But you’d have 56 plays even if you get no valravens tomorrow (a total 15 valravens when the average expectation is 13.5 by the time you hit your 54th play), 58 if you get one (16 valravens when the average expectation is 14 by the time you hit your 56th play). Right now, you have 52 plays from 22 sigils, or 16 valravens when your average expectation should have been 12.5 by your 50th play… which should be impossible unless one or more of the assumptions are incorrect. In fact, a lot of what people are reporting in this thread doesn’t line up with my previous calculations.

Time to redo some projections.

An estimated valraven rate of, say, 30%, would bring the average expected plays for 22 sigils up to 54 or 56, which makes a significant difference on projections. It would also put you back within the stated clamped +1 range (15 expected ravens in 50 plays).

I ran the numbers again against my current invasion progress with t3 purchase, and for others in my guild where we are currently. Should be impossible to be as far as we are with 25% raven rate given the +/- 1 rule, and I’m right on the mark with a 30%. Note that when I originally ran these numbers, everything I checked lined up with the 25% rate… now nothing does. I’m not sure if it was always 30%, or if something changed at some point, I haven’t run these numbers since the first two weeks of these events.

T3 gives 21 initial sigils, so if 30% happens to be the actual valraven rate, t3 should technically be possible with 3 ascencsions and near-perfect run, and a bit of luck. At 51 plays (to get your final valraven needed for 52), you’d have already gotten 15 ravens already with an average expectation of 15.3, and you need to be allowed a 16th for this to be possible, and a 16th should be allowed on your 50th and 51st battles (but still random). You’d also be allowed exactly one non-valraven loss in this case, obviously favoring after you got your final raven (a 17th raven should still be impossible, since your 53rd battle would have an expectation of 15.9 ravens, but it depends on if the +/-1 rule rounds in this scenario).

The new table looks like this (assumes perfect runs and “average” luck with 30% raven rate, so you could miss out if you are right under the line):

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He still has 1 sigil left in above pic.

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Fixed, but doesn’t change any numbers (assumed a lost sigil, instead there is an “extra”).

Yep my bad @Mithran, I thought I took the SS after the match but I did it before.
Here’s the final tally for today. Hopefully it doesn’t screw up all the work you already put into it.

(And I never lost a match or a Valraven…scouts honor.)
Maybe we should wait until the final results to tomorrow?

Final total @Mithran (never lost a Valraven or a match)

250k points is needed to get all the rewards from the bounty.
Difference between Tier 3 & 4 is 5 sigils.
So I’m voting that Tier 3, with 3 Ascension orbs (still a bad idea) is plausible.

I would even argue that Tier IV with two Ascension orbs is a bad idea. Orbs of Ascension are so rare that I value even a minor one at more than a few hundred gems. I could maybe see using one orb from Tier V to get the bounty captain to mythic, or even one from Tier IV to get it to legendary (still good for as high as a 28x multiplier) if that lets you get to reward 20.

I think on this thread I explained why I did it already. But I agree with you if the individual doesn’t have Zuul’Goth yet. And prior to this week, I didn’t think Tier 5 with 28x was possible. Not that it would matter for me personally this week. But yeah it’s good to know it’s totally doable.

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Gathering more data now, I’m getting reports of data sets that have fewer plays than the minimum you’d get from 30% (confirmed perfect runs, no ravens lost) but still higher than 25%.

So, indications are that the the +/- 1 rule is either able to go above +1, (which is not how it was explained to work, and also not what I’m observing all based on tests) or the +/- 1 rule is applied based on your expectation of ravens encountered rounded (so it’d be more like +/- 1.5, and since you can’t encounter half a raven, that functionally means +/-2, and because each raven is 2 sigils and they can compound, that can be a difference of up to 12 sigils - not really something I’m observing either, because similar purchases seem to beget very similar or exactly the same outcomes on perfect runs) or the estimated appearance rate isn’t correct, or the +/- 1 rule works completely differently, or some combination thereof.

By the way, before someone brings this up, I don’t believe valravens are clamped to “exactly 1 guaranteed every set of x battles”, like Luck scrolls work (exactly 1 in every set of 4 tower floors starting at floor 5) and as common knowledge frequently asserts. I just did a short run on my last account, and I got my first five ravens on battles 2, 4, 7, 9, 14. Any set of “exactly 1 guaranteed every x battles” that could explain the first four ravens alone would be give us far, far beyond the amount of total plays we get now, and none can explain all 5 (eg., 1 raven every 3 battles would be possible for 2, 4, and 7 but would put 2 in the same set for 7-9 and 0 in the set for 10-12). I believe it is much more likely ravens are allowed or disallowed based on whether or not you within range of total projected plays (including sigils played to this point, missed ravens and the raven you are getting now), allowing a raven if you are less than 2 plays ahead, disallowing it if you are over 2 ahead, and forcing it if you are more than 2 behind. Obviously, this is contingent on the fact that you can’t get half a raven or half a sigil, so some rounding has to take place somewhere. Its still kind of murky how exactly this calculation is done, since it is unlikely a calculation as complex as one I’m going to be doing here is being done to determine if a raven can appear or not when a much simpler one could be used, but again, we need a model where “perfect runs” produce very similar results that is not just “guaranteed raven every set of x battles”.

Anyways, if we go with 30% appearance rate for ravens, @awryan’s Saturday set shows he got his 15th valraven at or before the average expectation was exactly 14 ravens. If we took a different hypothetical lower rate, say, 27.5%, the average expectation for number of ravens encountered at 50 battles would be 13.75 ravens. To get 52 battles with T4 on Saturday Bounty (8 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 = 22 initial sigils), you need at least 15 ravens at or before your 50th battle (obviously if you got one on your 51s or 52nd battle, you’d have more ravens and more battles). Any assumed rate of Raven appearance below 30% would have your expectation of ravens at the 50th battle be <14, and getting a 15th raven at that explanation is more than “plus one”… without rounding. If we calc how many ravens over the total amount of battles played for this set, we get 15 ravens in 52 battles, a 28.8% overall appearance rate. But the last raven appeared at 50 battles or before, which would have been a 30% appearance rate, and we don’t know if another raven was possible by battle 52 or not.

Before reset today, I just finished two alts all the way out of sigils with a t3 purchase on invasions and got 212 towers. The first stage has no towers, then its 5, 5, 10, 10, 15 and 15 for a total of 60 towers in the first 35 plays, and then 4 towers per play afterward for 38 more plays to reach 212, meaning I got a total of 73 plays from my initial 33 sigils on both those accounts in different guilds. I double checked this with the last tower level - 118 - citadel starts at 80 and advances 1 per win, so I spent 38 battles in the citadel, which again equates to 73 battles. Its possible raven rate is different from invasions to bounty, but 73 plays from 33 initial sigils is 20 ravens, which is much both too high for an assumed raven rate of 25% and any variant of rounding with the +1/-1 rule (65-67 plays avg, and 73 plays means we got our 20th raven when on the 71st battle or before our average expected ravens was <18) and too low for 30% (avg would have been 81-83 battles played, average expectation at 73 plays would have been 21.9 ravens and we would have only gotten 20). If I look at the amount of ravens I got so far, for total plays, its 20 in 73, which is about 27.4%, 20 in 71 or 28.2% when the last raven appeared.

So, lets pick another number based on calculated appearance rates, make an educated guess that the people that created the numbers did so with certain projections in mind, and do some tests. Interestingly, if we assume a 27.7777_% raven rate, our expectation of plays converges at around 2.25x starting sigils, and a 27.5% makes our expectation of plays around 2.2222_x starting sigils.

Checking these with what we have so far… Awryan’s sample yesterday has us at 50 plays with 14 sigils and needing a 15th. The average expected number of raven at this point would have been 13.75 - 13.88. We’d have to assume “expected number” can round for this model to (still not enough information to tell which rounding method is used). With our average expected plays from 22 starting sigils at 48.8 - 49.5 plays, 52 plays is still only within range with some kind of rounding, and seems more likely with the 27.78% estimate.

Checking with my 2 alts, at 71 plays, they had 19 ravens with an expectation of 19.52 - 19.72, so well within range (one of them got the raven on the last battle, one of them earlier). My total expectation of plays is in the 73.33 - 74.25 range based on that model, so spot on here as well.

More data might help narrow this down, but heres the tables for these on bounty (based on average expected plays):

27.5% raven rate

27.7777_% raven rate

So, is t3 possible with either of these? Obviously never recommended regardless, but with 21 starting sigils, your average expectation of plays would have you fall pretty far short based on either of these. A “perfect” bounty run needs 52 victories at 30x modifier (with 5k point leeway, but that isn’t much overall and does not meet the break point for a single battle, which is 6k points). Your average expectation of battles under either model would be ~47, so already not looking good. But lets stretch the limits of the +/-1 rule and assume you can keep getting lucky like before. At your 51st battle with a t3 purchase, you’d have already earned 15 ravens, and your average expectation would have been 14.166, which should shut the door then and there on being able to get your 16th. Remember, Awryan needed every battle to finish this with T4 on Saturday with one additional sigil, which what all indications point to as “good luck”.

(Note these also line up better with @Neritar’s statement above, needing a near perfect run and raven luck for t4 without ascenscion orbs at 26x modifier to clear reward 20 - 57 total plays required, 26 initial sigils at 27.7% or 27.5% raven rate is around 58 expected plays, plus or minus a couple)

Double checking with my invasion results today. First account got a raven on the 74th battle, which had 20 ravens with an average expectation of >20 <21, well within range for the 21st raven, and at 76 (22 expecting ~21, well within range), ending at 81 plays (from 37 start, 81-83 expected, spot on). Other alt got ravens at 75 (21 expecting and >20 <21, well within range), and 79 (22 expecting very slightly <22, right on the mark again). All these fit all estimates for 27.5% or 27.78% appearance rates.

Assuming 25% rate, 79th battle would already have 21 ravens expecting <20, and so would previous battles, so this doesn’t fit (and we are far far off “average expectation”) Assuming 30% rate, 24.3 ravens would be expected by the 81st battle, and we’d have only earned 22, which is also outside the model, and our expected plays would be ~93, far outside the model again.

Confirming with todays results from Awryan… a total of 58 plays, expectation of ~58… spot on. At 56 plays, average expected valravens would have been either just above or just below 15.5, depending on which number used, but a 16th sigil from that is well within range regardless. Both of these calculations come out to “too many sigils” for any 25% raven rate model, far above total plays expectation, far above average expected raven appearance rate. For a 30% raven appearance rate model, the 58th play would carry an expectation of 16.8 ravens with 16 earned so far… so it technically still fits the lax interpretation of the +/-1 rule, but our average expected plays would be 70, and we observed 58, so it wouldn’t fit there.

Well, thats it for now. I’ll have to come up with a new model if t3 bounty completion is possible, because that means there is another variable or discrepancy somewhere. I’m probably still missing something with respect to the +/- 1 rule.

tl;dr:

• +/- 1 rule could be tied to projected total plays rather than current number of ravens vs expected (or we’d see much more variance).
• Assumed raven appearance rate of 25% and 30% both failed tests versus hard data sets from invasion with any possible interpretation of +/- 1 rule, 30% might still be possible for bounty assuming they have different rates
• Rate of raven appearance for invasion/bounty(+raid/tower) is likely roughly 27.5% - 27.77777_% (2.22 to 2.25x expected plays per starting sigil, contingent on the fact that “half a sigil” and “half a raven” are not actual things) - though it is possible different modes have different rates
• Raven appearance rate in Faction Assault =
• Given a 27.5 - 27.778% raven appearance rate, T3 bounty should still be impossible even after Sunday. (note that awryan’s run had one more starting sigil by T4 Saturday, which is a difference of 2.25 projected plays, needed every battle to get reward 20 on Saturday, and was likely “ahead” on luck at that point)
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There is also a little more complexity to Valravens. I don’t think it’s as simple as 2.25 expected plays per starting sigil. I know for a fact at least in the case of class events. In those you get valravens way more generously at the beginning of your battles (8 sigils ALWAYS turns into 20-22 battles) but if you were to buy an additional Tier 7 (20 sigils) after completing all the previous sigils that purchase almost always turns into 40 battles.

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2.25 plays is a simplification of a more complex calculation and only used to represent “expected rate” to know if we are on target or not.

A variable rate would be one explanation as to why this is so hard to pin down. 8 sigils to 22 plays is an outlier for previous estimations given a fixed appearance rate model at anything but a 30% appearance rate, which when wouldn’t fit any incidence of 20 sigils to 40 plays. Although I seem to recall being able to be 2 battles short of t4 rewards on a perfect run in 1 day class events with no purchases (eg., 18 to 20 sigils from 8)? It has been a long time since I’ve done one though, I might be mistaken. I do know for a fact I’ve gotten 20 battles (t4 rewards) from starting (8) sigils at least a couple times, which is, at least, still an outlier for a fixed 25% model.

I also mentioned my last test I encountered ravens at battles 2, 4, 7, 9, and 14 of invasion run. Which made me think, would have this been the case if I hypothetically started with 4 sigils, running this on day 1 with no purchases? 2, 4, 7, 9, and finally 12 battles would have been possible. This would have been 3 times my starting sigils in total plays, but also fits 2.5 times the starting sigils plus two sigils (30% raven rate, plus one extra being “possible”), but does not fit the 27.5% or 27.78% models.

It could possibly start at 30% and gradually taper off to 25%, but I have no idea how this would be determined with also a +1 clamping rule in effect. Seems needlessly complex… not just “intentionally obtuse”, as in, lots of stuff added to make it difficult to figure out how it works, theres lots of that in this game, but needlessly complex in implementation, when most systems at their core use simple calcluations (eg., GW scoring, delve loot, troop odds from chests).

More likely I’m going needlessly complex and there is a simpler model to describe this that also relates to how ravens are so tightly controlled. This is especially likely since the final results from perfect runs are generally within 2 plays of each other, not a given percent. Its possible “raven rate” is basically a myth and it actually works out to something like “50% chance for the raven to appear if it can appear based on a ratio of how many ravens you’ve seen and how many games you’ve played”. I’ll run some numbers based on that and look at some more data.

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I believe the early stage valravens are basically scripted to always leave you just shy of the next stage reward (delve events) or give you a false expectation of what tier is required to unlock the remaining rewards (class events). After you’ve unlocked all rewards they don’t give a crap and it’s just simply 25%.

This has never happened to me personally. I get 25 gems in rewards (total gems from up to stage 4 rewards) from my free sigils 100% of the time. Sometimes 2 sigils left over. I haven’t spent any gems on these class events in a very long time, I just treat them like a big daily task that rewards 25 gems.

Interesting theory, but I’m noting the same apparently non-linear seals progression in the guild events as well as the single player events. Two of my accounts in two very different guilds (reward 7 and reward 11 at the time) got the same exact 81 battles outcome from their starting t3 purchase in invasion this week. It could be, in theory, balanced so that it designed to taper off as it anticipates what is needed for you to get that reward assuming everyone in your guild does the same, but thats just a more complex way of saying “the appearance ratio gradually decreases the more plays (or maybe, wins) you have”.

All I know is that if you track your battles from sigils you get from each Tier 7 purchase in Raid/Inv/Bounty/Class events you will get 25% on average. Anything before Tier 7 is anyone’s guess.

No hard data of course to back this up. Just experience.

Definitely not. Valraven have an appearance rate that is heavily tilted towards requiring purchases, you can get lucky (or unlucky though). Playing free sigils within Tuesday Delves, if you complete all rooms you’ll very likely encounter two Valraven, with a very low chance to only encounter one or three. The latter basically guarantees you’ll get all rewards.

I have completed every delve event since delves existed and never have I ever had 1 or 3.

Start with 3 sigils, get 2 valravens, that lets you finish lv80 usually a hair’s breadth of completing last reward. It is possible to get all rewards with no Tiers bought but this has nothing to do with valravens.

This bounty troop reminds me of the pet

I had both happen. Didn’t think it possible for a long time until someone pointed me to a stream where Tacet got a third Valraven.