Now we have auto battle, could we have auto chest open too?
It is said that the reason why we can not open more chests at once cause the server would not be able to handle the load. So lets make a feature which simulates the behavior of human when opening chests.
The chest page needs an extra button which takes us to auto-open.
On that page there should be 2 input fields, one for keys the other for resources.
I set the amounts I want to spend, push open and the game starts opening chests for me, maximum available amount per open.
After every batch the result summary is shown for a couple seconds, like when you click on the skip button during opening animation.
This page should have a cancel button too to interrupt the batch opening.
For example:
To open glory chests and use 300 keys and 100k glory, the game would automatically open 200 + 100 glory chests with the keys and 100*50 glory chests for the 100k glory.
Iāve just spent 130k glory and tip of my finger started to hurt from the ~600 taps.
This sounds like a good idea and seems feasible. I havenāt bothered opening gold chests in ages because it just takes too long. Portals for me are the biggest issue. I donāt see why we canāt select a number to be opened within server capabilities of course. We can select between 1 and 10 war spoils in the shop so surely this can be expanded upon into the areas requested.
I hardly doubt that this will ever work.
Here comes my explanation why not:
I assume that there is a certain stach of available troops of each kind and rarity for each type of chests.
Now letās assume further with an example and letās use event chests for that:
1000x amount of each different common troop
+500x amount of each different rare troop
+250x amount of each different ultra-rare troop
+100x amount of each different epic troop
+50x amount of each different legendary troop
+10x amount of each different legendary troop
Now lets take Adana as an example (faction troops and tarot excluded)
3 different common troops
4 different rare troops
6 different ultra-rare troops
7 different epic troops
4 different legendary troops
3 different mythic troops
This would result in a stach of
3000
+2000
+1500
+700
+200
+90
=7490 available troops
Since I hardly doubt that every single instance for each single chest is calculated on its own, the only outcome can be that there is this stach of troops where we draw from.
Now if we would be able to open 7490 keys at once, we would get all the troops including 30 mythics of each kind.
And thatās why we are only allowed to open 200 chests at a time.
p.s.: The numbers are picked at random and are not reflecting the actual numbers, but I hope you get the point, what Iāve tryed to say
hi,
Unfortunately I did not understand a word of your explanation.
This feature would use the existing mechanism, it just would do the clicking for you.
The summary page could display an aggregated result. Resources first, new troops, then troops by rarity in descending order, up to 200 item like now.
Those who would use this feature already have a ton of copies and do not care about how many jujk troops they get. I certainly do not care, stoped disenchanting troops a lojg time ago.
So no, I can not understand why this would not work.
Interesting theory, but it would require to adjust the values every week, when a new troop is included. I think, a random pick from the whole selection for every opened chest would be more likely.
Might be a thing to keep an eye on. If you are right, there should never be more than X duplicates of a specific troop in a chest; though what exactly is X would have to be determined. 50 for an even chest or 25 for a general chest may be a good point to look for when running an experiement about this.
P.S.: Something that maybe speaks against the āpoolā theory would be, that it is possible to draw more than one mythic from a pack of (non-VIP) chests. The devs would likely set up a stricter limit for those, if it was not fully randomised.
Your approach would work (opening x-times 200 chests).
The idea of opening x chests at once wouldnāt work (because devs donāt want that!!!)
I assume the stach has a limited amount of troops and you would be able to pull all troops out of the stach at once if the amount of troops in the stach equals the chests you would open.
By pulling out 1 troop out of the stach the probability for every remained troop increases till it leads to a guaranteed troop you are looking for.
Easier explained: Imagine you have a bag with 1000 different colored marbles in it.
If you are allowed to pull 1000 in one go out of it, you would end up with (at least) every marble once with a chance of 100% success.
If you are allowed to only pull out 200 marbles at a time, the bag would be refilled automatically with the missing marbles and you can try again with the same chance as in the first try. You could end up with infinte attempts without gettin a specific troop in this case (even that it at some point would become more and more unlikely but it could happen).
We almost could give it a try with Hellcrag next week by spending plenty of event chests and post the results here. Unfortunately I donāt have many event keys (998 atm) and it would be a waste currently coz Iām still looking for mayn missing mythics.
But if we could get some free volunteers, we might figure it out.
You might be right, IF there is only one copy of each mythic in the pool. I know that sometimes you get 2 mythics of the same kind out of chests (new mythics not considered), but when there are more then 1 copy of each mythic is in the pool, my theory would still work.
To clearify this:
We have to watch out for peaks like i.e. 50, 100 or 200 of one single troop out of 200 event chests opened. I know the odds are incredibly low to achieve something with this experiment, but it might give us more insight. And from there on we could calculate the probabilitys. It would also mean, that opening 200 chests at once will be more benficial then opening 50 or 1 at once.
Why would you assume this is how chests work in the first place?
Isnāt it that your perceived system contradicts official explanation of chest drops?
There are several indicators lead me to my assumption:
1st: The article you show us has been updated 3 years ago. They could have changed it completely without telling us (even on purpose or on sloppyness) or it could have never been in the first place how they described it. (Besides my theory is not opposing the ādescriptionā of this link you posted)
2nd: Plenty of their āofficialā explanations, announcements and so on have been proven completely false in the past till today.
Just a small example of the exact same āInfo websideā:
At the end of the article it says: FINAL_SCORE = BASE_SCORE + BASE_SCORE * (COLOR_BONUS + SURVIVAL_BONUS + SPEED_BONUS + MANA_BONUS + DAMAGE_BONUS)
If FINAL_SCORE = BASE_SCORE + SOMETHING
is an offial statement, how it comes that every lost battle in a guild war gives you LESS points then the BASE_SCORE?
3rd: The more and more Iām playing this game, gettin in contact with other players, reading this forum and doing research on my own, the more I believe that they lost track of their ingame code and are not able to fix even the easiest stuff coz nobody knows how it is/was coded (at least nobody is fully aware of it anymore).
They now only try to cover up bugs, use phrases like āUnchangeable thingsā, āThis works as intendedā, āWe were not able to reproduce that bugā and leave it unsolved or āWill be fixed in the next patchā and is not.
Maybe somebody is really trying to get into this spaghetti code somebody else created.
Maybe it will be fixed in the future.
Maybe some of their āofficialā statements are true.
But due to the sheer amount of things that are not working as intended and the amount of players having simple questions the devs have no answer for currently, I keep on searching for different approaches on āofficial announcementsā and try to proove them either right or wrong.
Decide for yourself what you believe more to, but from my perspective, this one and plenty other āofficialā websides are not completely trustworthy so far.
No snark. Their programmer(s) usually take the most obvious route. My understanding is that virtually everything is done live and almost nothing is pre-generated, despite performance implications. That includes even obvious optimisation targets like daily offers, campaign tasks, checking for Soulforge upgrades, etc. The most obvious and maybe likely route they took is to naively roll a single random numbers in a loop for however many chests the player wants to open.
I think that code is broken all the same, no matter the implementation.
I often open 20-50k worth of glory chests in one session. Itās completely normal and I lowkey expect the game to give me 4-5 copies of the same legendary in a row (and no other legendaries in between).
Please correct me if Iām wrong, not a man of math at all, but:
At 0.5% legendary drop chance per glory chest and ~120 legendaries in glory chests, what are the odds of pulling five of the same legendary in a row?
One in (100/0.5) * 120 * 5 = 120ā000 chests?
Or one in 2.4 million glory?
This strikes me as unlikely (because this happens with absolute regularity).
First the drop chance of a legendary doesnāt matter in your case. Just sayin.
What you are lookin for is the probability how often you can get the same legendary 5 times in a row (assuming the legendary count is 120 and you get one legendary at max out of 200 (or 50 or 10 or 1) chests):
One in a row would be 1/1 or (1/120)ā°
or 100 %
Two in a row would be 1/120 or (1/120)Ā¹
or 0,83%
Three in a row would be (1/120)x(1/120) or (1/120)Ā²
or 0,00694%
Four in a row would be (1/120)x(1/120)x(1/120) or (1/120)Ā³
or 0,000057%
Five in a row would be (1/120)x(1/120)x(1/120)x(1/120) or (1/120)ā“
or 0,00000048%
Could you rephrase this to say how many chests (or how much glory) one would have to spend on average to both obtain 5 legendaries AND have them be the same legendary (while also counting chests that do not have any legendary in them)?
That depends on my assumption I mentioned a few posts earlier. Iāll try to get into the math later but I have to leave now. Dinner with my gf at my parents place. Selfmade
Just a short update from my Switch account. I got 24 copys of Natureborn Warden and Fireborn Warrior each out of 50 event chests.
Today is Nexus release on Switch.
@sls Iāll come back for you later if I have time
The chance to get 5 times the same legendary in a row from a pool of 120 evenly distributed legendaries is (1 / 120) x (1 / 120) x (1 / 120) x (1 / 120), or roughly 0.0000005%. If you assume 200 pulls on average (which is slightly off) to get a legendary, 20 glory per pull, the average amount of glory to experience this is slightly above 829 billion.
I wouldnāt believe it without substantial data to back up that claim. Iāve opened > 20k glory worth of chests on multiple occasions when fishing for a mythic, Iāve never gotten anywhere even remotely close to such a streak. Of course, this being Gems of War this might be something thatās happening only to your account. But in order to look into this further youād need to provide a summary of your pulls the next time you go on a big spending spree. Please make a list of consecutive pulls that shows the legendaries obtained (even if there were none) and the batch size used (1, 50, 200).
Thatās odd to me, getting the same legendary from glory chests several times in a row is the expectation on mythic day for me, not the exception. For jokes, I spent 20k glory yesterday and got 2x Wrath in a row, followed by random drops.
