600 glory keys, fair price for her!
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Well after 15k gems went down on last two mythics, all keys, 175k glory, this one cost me 9000 guild seals and 1200 glory keys. I clung onto my start from scratch again, gem keys.
I donât know why I tried to get Will of Nysha - not used it since a few hours after getting it!
Think devs wary of power creep and undercooked it.
I really like Will of Nysha with Arachnean Weaver and Leprechaun. Weapon is good as either Life & Death or Mountain Crusher. Weaver hits for a ton after a few turns. Not great for pvp since those games are over in 2 turns and you never get to utilize Nyshaâs 3rd trait but fun for other things!
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Ok Iâm not the best at math but that doesnât sound right⌠Isnât the chance to get a mythic 1/1000? Thatâs each individual time you open a chest. So it doesnât matter how many chests you open because each individual time you open a chest you have less than a one percent chance in getting a mythic⌠at least thatâs how probability works as I understand it.
I could very well be wrong in this and if thatâs the case Iâll just shut my biiiiiiiiiiiiig mouth.
Yes, the chance to get a specific mythic out of each chest is fixed for each chest. Every time you open a guild chest, for instance, there is a 0.11% chance that the item you get will be a mythic troop. However, because of that, you can also work out the probability of seeing that event happen at least once over a period of time. For instance, we expect that in a certain number of events, the probability of it happening at least once is X.
The probability of getting a mythic is never going to be 100%, thatâs impossible. But over time, opening more chests, it gets closer to 100%.
0.11% = 0.0011
1 - 0.0011 = 0.9989
So the probability of not getting a mythic when I use a guild key is 0.9989. What about two chests?
0.9989^2 = 0.99780121
So the chance of getting one mythic from two chests is 0.219879% â thatâs way better than .11%, itâs almost double!
Think of it like a lottery ticketâŚ
If I buy ONE lottery ticket, my chance of winning is 1 out of 30 million or whatever the odds are. And if I buy another one, the odds of that one winning are completely the same, right? YEP! But Iâve just DOUBLED my odds of winning, because now I have two tickets. Thatâs why if you had $10 and each ticket costs $2, youâre better off buying 5 tickets for one drawing rather than buying 5 tickets over 5 drawings. Your odds of winning in each drawing are always going to be the same if you only have one ticket, but if you have multiple tickets (keys) your odds increase.
| Guild Seals | # Opened | Chance of NOT getting a Mythic | Chance of getting at least 1 Mythic |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | 1 | 99.89% | 0.11% |
| 40 | 2 | 99.78% | 0.22% |
| 80 | 4 | 99.56% | 0.44% |
| 160 | 8 | 99.12% | 0.88% |
| 320 | 16 | 98.25% | 1.75% |
| 640 | 32 | 96.54% | 3.46% |
| 1280 | 64 | 93.20% | 6.80% |
| 2560 | 128 | 86.86% | 13.14% |
| 5120 | 256 | 75.45% | 24.55% |
| 10240 | 512 | 56.92% | 43.08% |
| 20480 | 1024 | 32.40% | 67.60% |
| 40960 | 2048 | 10.50% | 89.50% |
| 81920 | 4096 | 1.10% | 98.90% |
| 163840 | 8192 | 0.01% | 99.99% |
| 327680 | 16384 | 0.0000015% | 99.99999853% |
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I think I get what youâre saying but the back of my mind is still questioning it (itâs a me thing not a you thing). I get what youâre saying about the lottery in which itâs better to have five tickets for one draw. It seems to me itâs like saying one key (draw) having five chances (tickets) to get a mythic but in the gameâs case one key (draw) only has one chance (ticket) to get a mythic. Thatâs why I think it doesnât work like the way you are saying.
Again, probability isnât my thing so I have no problem prefacing what I said by admitting you are more likely right and I am more likely wrong.
650 gem keys
5000 glory keys
120 000 glory
8000 guild seals
10 vip keys
NO mythic. Almost every mythic I own, I have crafted. I am not sure why my profile is so unlucky.
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Got mine! Only spent 5000 seals and 200 gem keys!
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Iâll try to explain it more then 
What weâre looking for here is the probability of a single event happening at least one time over many events. Each of these events has the same probability for the single event to happen.
It might be easier if we think of a coin. Whatâs the probability that we get tails when we flip a coin? Approximately 50% (itâs not exactly 50% but thatâs due to manufacturing and is a different discussion). What if we flip two coins? The probability of getting tails when we flip the second coin is⌠still 50%. Okay. Letâs flip it again. On the third flip⌠itâs still 50%. But weâve now flipped a coin three times. Do you really think the probability of getting the coin to lands tails side up at least one time out of those three flips is always going to be 50%? Of course not, the more we flip the coin, the more chances we have to see tails come up. Thatâs just common sense. Sure, itâs always a 50% chance to land on tails, but itâs not always a 50% chance to always come up heads. Let me rephrase that:
There is always a 50% chance to land on heads or tails on each flip.
There is only a 50% chance to always land on heads (or tails) on the first flip.
You wouldnât really expect to flip a coin 10 times and land on heads every time, would you? Of course not, youâd expect to see tails a couple times. Even in an infinite number of flips, where youâd (interestingly) see infinite stretches of only heads or only tails, youâd eventually see the other come up.
But instead of heads and tails, weâre talking about Mythic troops and âeverything else.â And we know the probability of getting âeverything elseâ is simply 1 (100%) minus the probability of getting a Mythic. For Gem Keys, the probability of getting a Mythic is 0.1%, so the probability of getting anything else is 99.9%. For Glory Keys, the probability is 0.01%, so the probability of getting anything else is 99.99%. For Guild Keys, itâs .11% and 99.89%, and for Gem Keys itâs 1% and 99%.
So you see, just like coin flips, instead of 50% (tails) and 50% (heads), itâs just drastically more in favor of ânot a mythicâ than it is for âa mythic.â
Knowing that, and using the coin flip scenario, we know that the chances on each chest (like each flip) are always the same, but the chances of seeing a mythic at least once (the other side of the coin) go up the more times we flip the coin.
BUT! And this is a huge one⌠you could flip the coin and see exactly what you want to see on the first flip. With 1 flip, the chance is 50% of getting tails once. But with two flips, the chance of getting tails once increases to 75%, then 87.5% on three flips, then 93.75% on four flips. Go ahead and flip a coin four times and let me know how many times you get four heads (or four tails). I bet itâs a lot more rare than you think, even though itâs always 50% on each flip. Think itâs rare to see four flips of all the same side? Itâs even more rare for five flips. And of course by that logic, itâs even more rare for six flips.
The same applies to chests. Itâs NOT rare to open a chest and NOT get a mythic. But it is rare to not see a mythic after a certain number of chests.
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Edit: just wanted to say it just took me about 2000 glory keys to get this new mythic.
Thanks for writing all of that up. Believe me it wasnât for nothing. I learned something new today even though my instincts are telling me otherwise. The funny thing is I looked it up myself and a lot of articles said the same thing. This is one of those things where I just question it even though the entire world says it is what it is. Eventually my head will be able to wrap around this concept you just showed me.
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Iâm pretty disappointed that the spell artwork Is the EXACT SAME as Shahbanu Vesperaâs. Why? 
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Seriously. Mirror image it, recolor it, something other than having it be completely identical!
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I dont think itâs the same or even close.
This is what I am seeing.
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Itâs the same on mobile devices. When Shah was released we already noticed that the spell image looked different on mobile and PC, so now we know it was the spell image for Mistralus. 
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Those pics are from my android phone.
It looks closer to Aquaticus to me.
Similar but still clearly different
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Its an asset bug.
Only way to remedy it is to do an uninstall of GoW and Reinstall. I think I was seeing the same thing on my S9+ but now with the Note 10+ Iâm seeing the correct image.
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