(!) Spoiler Alert (!) -- [Any Details Provided are Subject to Change] (Part 1)

Assuming your 12k gems are spent on gem keys, I calculate a 83% chance at getting at least 1 mythic

If they are VIP keys, I calculate a 96% chance of at least 1 mythic.

For the curious:
2k glory keys = 18.1%
250 gem keys = 22.2%
1200 gem keys = 70% or 266 vip keys = 93%
4500 seals = 10.6% (assuming you still get guardians, otherwise this goes up to 20.1%)


My bad, i was thinking there is someone behind, but looking again, no one there… Time to buy new glasses… Sorry :sweat:

Well im not so fond on the art, is silly for a Mithyc. Im the same regard they dont have to be covered in fire hehe.


There’s a hint of my little pony about her. Good for those that like that sort of thing I suppose

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Can I check the maths on this? If the guild keys no longer yield guardians, shouldn’t the % be exactly double than if they do?

Also do you know if guild keys also give the 10x extra chance for mythics that gem keys reportedly do?

IIRC, the chance on each key is doubled if you no longer get guardians.

The probabilities @rasper has computed are for multiple keys, so the effect is compounded and not linear.


ehi, mate, can u plz give me the link to the topic where there’s the link to the google sheet with previous of cards? ty very much

If you mean the same tool I have in mind it’s not a google sheet. Check if that’s what you are after:

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Did you want one of these?

actreal’s Arcane Schedule Thread
Rasper’s Event Spreadsheet

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Are either of you interested in opening a fresh spoiler thread and keeping all the summary info in the OP?

4500 seals = 225 keys

Chance of mythic in 1 key = 0.001 (1 in 1000)
Chance of non-mythic in 1 key = 1 - 0.001 = 0.999
Chance of all non-mythic in n keys = 0.999^n
Chance at least 1 mythic in n keys = 1 - 0.999^n

If guardians are present, you get 112 non-guardians, so n = 112
1 - 0.999^112 = 1 - 0.8939 = 0.1061 = 10.6%

If guardians are not present, n = 225
1 - 0.999^225 = 1 - 0.7984 = 0.2016 = 20.2%


If only RNG works like that math. My best pull from guild keys so far is BD and Bunni Nog.


ok thanks, that’s way over my head haha.

i just thought the chance would be a simple double if guardians no longer dropped.

Think about it this way- If you had a 50% chance to get what you wanted with 1 chest, would you have a 100% chance to get it in 2 chests?


One example I like about probability: Imagine flipping a coin and getting heads 26 times in a row. The odds are just staggeringly small. But if everyone in the US tried it one, there is a 99.3% chance someone would get it.

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Also known as:


I think the Law of large numbers is most prominently visible when it comes to all kinds of lotteries. There is a really tiny chance you’ll get the jackpot (probably 1 in dozens of millions) yet someone gets it.

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Valid question here to those of you doing the datamining…

“Spoiler Alert: Under New Management”

I don’t know. I legitimately forgot the thread was started by someone else lol.

I’d suggest waiting until the next big data dump. We’ve had a few new details about mythics and such, but nothing about events after July 24. I’d wager either tonight or next week they will add the August and September event schedule to the game data. At that point it would be worth starting fresh again.

Fair enough.