This week’s “Black Ice” World Event has been kind of interesting – because it’s kind of hard! (And can take ages.)
There’s lots of factors to this, including the level of Guild participation (my alt’s Guild is somewhat dead), the fact there’s no troops that directly support the Event medals, etc. But the thing I think is most interesting is the randomness of the battles.
TL;DR - The Hyndla Frostcrown battle increased in power twice as fast as any other in this event, making it especially difficult for even end-game players.
Because the board is reset after every battle, always picking the optimal battle can quickly push any further progress out of our reach.
In the lesser round, two battles are equivalent, so the level of the battles advances at half the speed of the second round.
In the second round, Hyndla Frostcrown is clearly the optimal choice. The chances of Hyndla not appearing are 2/3 * 2/3 * 2/3 = 8/27 = 29.6%. So an optimal run will involve fighting Hyndla 70.4% of the time, every other battle.
But Hyndla also increases in level faster than the other battles: 20 levels per fight!
So, after using 40 Sigils (all wins), your Hyndla fight is likely to be at level 290.
That’s the point I stopped fighting Hyndla. At the same time, my other battles were as follows:
- Berserker (U) – 34
- Ice Witch (E) – 136
- Ice Golem (E) – 136
- Frostfeather (L) – 42
- Mistralus (M) – 100
- Hyndla (L) – 290
That’s a pretty unbalanced event!
Ideas for the Future
I think it would be pretty easy to simulate the optimal battle choices in these World Events for people buying up to each Tier in the Shop. Run the simulation 1000 times and see what the average level of every battle is. Then see if that makes sense.
When a situation like this one is detected, reduce the level advance of the problem battle. In this case, if Hyndla only went up 10 levels each win, she’d only reach level 150 after 40 Sigils – much better!
Beware of blocking an event for less active Guilds. My alt had to do what she could with only 2 Tokens from Guild Rewards. That makes a huge difference compared to a Guild that finishes all Rewards, that a weaker player cannot afford to compensate with Gems.