Data Gathering - Portal Drop Rates

I’ve made the screenshots you requested and am opening portals now. Let me know if you still want me to post the data tomorrow for posterity.

Thanks for the update, Salty!

1 Like

Sure, can’t hurt to post them. I’ll probably still spreadsheet stuff both now and after the next patch lands just in case.

3 Likes

:vulcan_salute:

2 Likes

Sorry uploading from phone made for a scrambled order

:sweat_smile::pray::vulcan_salute:




Will run the numbers later when I have more time.

3 Likes

how many shards spent?

Saw this thread after I opened chests so some are just normal SS that I take.
SS is from 2 days ago:


Shards prior to opening portals:

Bought Tier 1-4 in the shop but didn’t get a ST from the shop:

Troops and quantity:

Shards remaining:

4 Likes

Forgot to properly filter faction troops before opening the portal… well, I hope this still helps.

4 Likes

I believe this should be it.
Before:


mir%20halls%20troops%20before
After

mir%20halls%20troops%20after

And, since @Mithran asked with kindness, here goes:

Summary

START
59,007 shards

doppelganger
doppelganger
purse
ring
chalice
glass golem
ring
ring
ring
chalice
ring
ring
doppelganger
purse
doppleganger
chalice
doppelganger
glass golem
ring
ring
ring
ring
ring
chalice
mirror queen
ring
sacred treasure
doppelganger
chalice
ring
copycat
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
glass golem
lamp
glass golem
copycat
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
ring
crown
crown
doppelganger
chalice
doppelganger
chalice
ring
ring
-------1000 shards used-------
ring
purse
doppelganger
purse
copycat
ring
ring
doppelganger
purse
doppelganger
copycat
crown
doppelganger
glass golem
ring
chalice
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
chalice
doppelganger
ring
doppelganger
crown
copycat
crown
doppelganger
doppelganger
chalice
ring
ring
copycat
doppelganger
purse
doppelganger
copycat
lamp
copycat
ring
ring
ring
mirror queen
ring
doppelganger
purse
chalice
mirror queen
ring
copycat
doppelganger
------2000 shards used-------
ring
mirror queen
doppelganger
doppelganger
chalice
copycat
purse
chalice
lamp
copycat
chalice
ring
doppelganger
purse
doppelganger
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
doppelganger
crown
chalice
ring
chalice
doppelganger
doppelganger
chalice
glass golem
glass golem
sacred treasure
ring
doppelganger
ring
glass golem
ring
doppelganger
chalice
doppelganger
doppelganger
doppelganger
ring
doppelganger
crown
purse
copycat
chalice
doppelganger
glass golem
--------3000 shards used--------
copycat
mirror queen
ring
doppelganger
chalice
lamp
doppelganger
glass golem
crown
ring
copycat
doppelganger
doppelganger
chalice
ring
chalice
ring
ring
chalice
copycat
chalice
purse
ring
chalice
doppelganger
purse
ring
copycat
lamp
crown
doppelganger
ring
crown
doppelganger
doppelganger
doppelganger
copycat
copycat
crown
copycat
purse
ring
doppelganger
mirror queen
ring
copycat
ring
doppelganger
crown
mirror queen
-------4000 shards used--------
doppelganger
chalice
chalice
ring
doppelganger
copycat
mirror queen
ring
ring
doppelganger
copycat
purse
ring
lamp
doppelganger
copycat
mirror queen
mirror queen
ring
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
copycat
lamp
ring
doppelganger
ring
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
copycat
doppelganger
glass golem
ring
doppelganger
ring
doppelganger
copycat
doppelganger
doppelganger
ring
copycat
lamp
chalice
ring
purse
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
ring
------5000 shards used---------
ring
ring
copycat
copycat
chalice
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
doppelganger
doppelganger
copycat
doppelganger
ring
doppelganger
glass golem
doppelganger
chalice
doppelganger
glass golem
copycat
ring
ring
chalice
glass golem
copycat
doppelganger
copycat
ring
copycat
purse
doppelganger
ring
chalice
ring
purse
chalice
doppelganger
crown
doppelganger
ring
copycat
doppelganger
doppelganger
copycat
ring
copycat
purse
copycat
ring
doppelganger
-----6000 shards used-----
doppelganger
purse
lamp
ring
ring
mirror queen
purse
ring
doppelganger
glass golem
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
copycat
doppelganger
doppelganger
ring
ring
copycat
chalice
doppelganger
chalice
chalice
doppelganger
chalice
copycat
chalice
copycat
ring
purse
doppelganger
chalice
ring
purse
sacred treasure
purse
chalice
copycat
copycat
ring
copycat
doppelganger
doppelganger
crown
purse
ring
copycat
glass golem
glass golem
ring
------7000 shards used-------
ring
ring
chalice
sacred treasure
copycat
doppelganger
ring
doppelganger
crown
mirror queen
copycat
doppelganger
chalice
chalice
purse
chalice
doppelganger
doppelganger
doppelganger
doppelganger
copycat
ring
sacred treasure
ring
ring
purse
glass golem
chalice
glass golem
----7580 shards used------
4x mythic copies

51,427 shards
END

5 Likes

How curious… do you expect to find a difference?

So many worshipers of Rngesus, but they so often overlook the holy trinity of mean, deviation, and variance.

A long time ago, mr strange said things about how the rng was implemented on consoles. Now that all platforms are on unity, some of the old seed and salt discussions are relevant. Oh, and this is old legacy code that the devs may not know much about. Or atleast, way before salty’s time. Ozzball as a player may remember some.

Consecutive single-portal openings, with no other activity between, would allow for streakiness testing.

—————————————

Here are my photos.

Before, shard count:


Before, treasure count:

Before, troop count (I bought Tier VI in the shop):

After, shard count:


After, treasure count:

After, troop count:

(Like last month, I had two copies of the legendary after 4,000 shards. That sure changed.)

1 Like

All pulls in bulk right after completing the quest line:

Purse Ring Chalice Crown Lamp Treasure Doppelganger Copycat Golem Queen
1 3 0 1 0 0 3 2 0 0
3 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 0
2 0 0 0 1 0 4 2 0 1
1 1 0 0 1 0 7 0 0 0
0 4 2 0 0 1 1 0 1 1
1 3 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 0
0 4 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1
0 2 2 0 2 0 3 1 0 0
1 2 2 1 0 0 2 1 1 0
1 0 0 1 0 0 5 1 2 0
2 5 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0
2 2 0 1 0 0 3 2 0 0
0 2 1 0 1 0 0 3 1 2
0 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 0 0
0 5 0 0 0 1 3 1 0 0
1 2 1 0 0 0 5 0 1 0
1 2 2 0 0 0 1 3 1 0
2 3 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0
0 4 0 0 2 0 3 0 1 0
0 0 4 1 0 0 4 1 0 0
2 4 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0 1 0 5 1 0 0
0 4 3 0 1 0 2 0 0 0
1 1 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 1
1 3 2 0 0 0 2 1 1 0
1 1 4 0 0 0 2 1 1 0
1 2 2 0 0 0 3 2 0 0
0 4 1 0 0 0 4 0 1 0
1 0 2 1 0 0 3 2 1 0
0 1 2 0 0 0 2 4 0 1
0 4 0 0 1 0 4 1 0 0
2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 1
0 1 1 1 0 0 3 3 1 0
1 5 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
3 Likes

Requested Screenshots:

Click to view screenshots.

BEFORE:




AFTER:




8,060 Shards were used to get all the troops to mythic. The rare troop took the longest to max.
I opened 38 sets of 10 portals then I opened 23 single portals until I maxed the rare troop.


Portal Stats

portal_stats
Total Troops/Treasures: 403
Treasure Amt: 53%
Troop Amt: 47%


Coin Purse Gold Ring Priest’s Chalice King’s Crown Genie’s Lamp Sacred Treasure
8.4% 23.3% 11.2% 5.7% 3.7% 0.5%
Doppleganger Copycat Glass Golem The Mirror Queen
22.6% 14.4% 8.2% 2.0%

4 Likes

4000 shards used…104 Treasures/96 Troops

Treasures, from Mythic to Common: 1 7 10 29 42 15
Troops: 2 12 31 51

Apologies for not using the desired format. Good luck on your quest, have fun storming the castle. :blush::+1:

Not with 10,000 Elves can this be done. It is folly.

2 Likes

It’s possible, depending on the RNG and what sources of entropy it has. Since it’s server-side we don’t get to peek at its workings.

But it’s plausible that if you pull 10 troops, it either asks for 10 random numbers then uses that set as the data, or it just calls “pull 1 troop” 10 times in quick succession. Either way, that puts all the RNG requests “near” each other for that data set.

But doing 1 pull at a time means much more time is passing between each RNG call. Depending on implementation that could mean more dramatic changes to the RNG state between pulls.

It’s all black box, so we don’t know if it will give us different data or not. For a good RNG with no bias, it shouldn’t matter. But even then, there’s the small chance that a good RNG rolls a suspicious data set. Testing and verifying RNG behavior involves impossibly large runs and a bit of artistic interpretation of the data, I’ve read essays about it from an implementor’s perspective but it really comes down to a lot of words dressing up “you run it a zillion times over weeks and make sure the times you detect patterns are as rare and unpredictable as the smaller datasets.”

1 Like

Had a fair number of extra shards and time this go-around, so I single-pulled portals for the cause. Here’s what I found:

502 Portals were opened. 247 of those yielded Treasures. 255 yielded Troops. 85 of said troops were “wasted” pulls in that they would serve no purpose other than to be disenchanted (if you’re wondering why I kept pulling after the third “extra” of each troop, so am I–it was a mistake that resulted in me having at least 5 copies of each troop at mythic, rather than 4 :sweat_smile:).

So…

image

…and here’s a breakdown by individual cards pulled:
image

It took me…
4520 Shards to mythic The Mirror Queen
4900 Shards to mythic Glass Golem
5700 Shards to mythic Doppelganger
7620 Shards to mythic Copycat

Interesting, to me at least, is that the order of completion is different if we look at having four mythic copies (rather than one) as “complete”; the order in that case becomes:

Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Copycat
The Mirror Queen

For those masochistic enough to be interested, here's the full list of all 502 pulls, in order:

If that image isn't easy-to-read and you really, really are a glutton for punishment, here's the same information in straight-text

Priest’s Chalice
King’s Crown
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Priest’s Chalice
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
King’s Crown
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Copycat
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Genie’s Lamp
Doppelganger
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Copycat
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Genie’s Lamp
Copycat
Sacred Treasure
Gold Ring
The Mirror Queen
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
The Mirror Queen
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Glass Golem
Copycat
Gold Ring
Copycat
Priest’s Chalice
Genie’s Lamp
Priest’s Chalice
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Copycat
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
King’s Crown
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Copycat
Priest’s Chalice
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Copycat
Doppelganger
The Mirror Queen
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Coin Purse
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Gold Ring
Coin Purse
Priest’s Chalice
Priest’s Chalice
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Copycat
Copycat
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Glass Golem
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
The Mirror Queen
Genie’s Lamp
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Copycat
King’s Crown
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
King’s Crown
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Copycat
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
The Mirror Queen
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Genie’s Lamp
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Priest’s Chalice
Coin Purse
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Genie’s Lamp
Gold Ring
King’s Crown
Copycat
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Glass Golem
Sacred Treasure
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Priest’s Chalice
Copycat
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Sacred Treasure
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Copycat
Doppelganger
Copycat
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Copycat
Coin Purse
Copycat
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
The Mirror Queen
Priest’s Chalice
Gold Ring
Copycat
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
King’s Crown
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Coin Purse
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Copycat
Priest’s Chalice
Genie’s Lamp
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Copycat
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Priest’s Chalice
The Mirror Queen
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Coin Purse
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Gold Ring
King’s Crown
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Sacred Treasure
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Copycat
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
The Mirror Queen
Copycat
Doppelganger
Copycat
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Copycat
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Genie’s Lamp
Gold Ring
Coin Purse
Gold Ring
Copycat
Priest’s Chalice
Priest’s Chalice
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Glass Golem
Copycat
Copycat
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Copycat
Copycat
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Genie’s Lamp
Genie’s Lamp
Copycat
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Copycat
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Coin Purse
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Priest’s Chalice
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Copycat
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Genie’s Lamp
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Coin Purse
Priest’s Chalice
King’s Crown
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Copycat
Copycat
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
The Mirror Queen
Copycat
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Copycat
Doppelganger
Genie’s Lamp
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
King’s Crown
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Sacred Treasure
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Copycat
Doppelganger
Copycat
Gold Ring
Copycat
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Priest’s Chalice
King’s Crown
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Genie’s Lamp
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
King’s Crown
Copycat
Copycat
Coin Purse
Priest’s Chalice
Copycat
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Copycat
Genie’s Lamp
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Copycat
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Copycat
Coin Purse
The Mirror Queen

Screenshots to verify my data:

Apologies for the disparity the image below will have—I forgot to take the treasure “after” screen before I purchased through Tier IV in the event shop:

5 Likes

Yeah, this. We shouldn’t find any significant difference in terms of overall drop ratios, but knowing the ordering of the individual samples allows for a Runs test. Also, to determine if there is any significant difference from using the single pull versus 10 pulls - to which, at a glance and over these relatively large sample sets from Magnusimus and Dust_Angel, these seem to line up quite well with previous reports of attempting to mythic all faction troops (where they were almost surely done with x10 pulls).

Thanks for the data everyone. Looking at it quickly for established patterns (expectation of 7200~8k shards to mythic all faction troops, rings > chalices > purses at nearly 2:1 ratios, >50% overall treasures) shows no reason to suspect anything has changed. I’ll input and crunch full numbers when I have the time (Tuesday probably).

8 Likes

Haven’t had time to run the numbers here just yet. Keep getting distracted by, well, the main reason I asked for them in the first place. I don’t expect any “big reveals” running the basic data sets here and expect them to confirm what the status quo was at this point, but I’m still going to document them.

The individual pulls sets I still plan on doing a Runs test on, but I’m not sure what approach to use now that it has been revealed that every troop and most treasures could have rolled whether or not “Troop” or “Treasure” was the original roll… and there are at least two known random operations (and sometimes three) per individual drop pulled to get to the last drop. I suppose I can still do the Runs test on “treasures versus troops” to see how this stacks up as “random” versus a simulated sequential single layer random sequence with a 54.2/45.8 split, or maybe just check one of the “rare” troops or treasures versus everything else since each individually should be appearing at a high enough rate for these to be good sample sizes. Even if we can’t get a good conclusion off this, we can repeat the test in the next month or so with the “fixed” code to see if the “streakiness” was significantly impacted by the code using a different sequence of random operation to get us to what is supposed to be the same results.

7 Likes

In @Mithran I trust, no matter the timetable :+1:

Based on happenings in the other thread, it looks like this might be worthwhile once the dust settles.