Data Gathering - Portal Drop Rates

Gameplay Chat (PC/Mobile)
21

Had a fair number of extra shards and time this go-around, so I single-pulled portals for the cause. Here’s what I found:

502 Portals were opened. 247 of those yielded Treasures. 255 yielded Troops. 85 of said troops were “wasted” pulls in that they would serve no purpose other than to be disenchanted (if you’re wondering why I kept pulling after the third “extra” of each troop, so am I–it was a mistake that resulted in me having at least 5 copies of each troop at mythic, rather than 4 :sweat_smile:).

So…

image

…and here’s a breakdown by individual cards pulled:
image

It took me…
4520 Shards to mythic The Mirror Queen
4900 Shards to mythic Glass Golem
5700 Shards to mythic Doppelganger
7620 Shards to mythic Copycat

Interesting, to me at least, is that the order of completion is different if we look at having four mythic copies (rather than one) as “complete”; the order in that case becomes:

Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Copycat
The Mirror Queen

For those masochistic enough to be interested, here's the full list of all 502 pulls, in order:

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image307×8033 370 KB

If that image isn't easy-to-read and you really, really are a glutton for punishment, here's the same information in straight-text

Priest’s Chalice
King’s Crown
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Priest’s Chalice
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
King’s Crown
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Copycat
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Genie’s Lamp
Doppelganger
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Copycat
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Genie’s Lamp
Copycat
Sacred Treasure
Gold Ring
The Mirror Queen
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
The Mirror Queen
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Glass Golem
Copycat
Gold Ring
Copycat
Priest’s Chalice
Genie’s Lamp
Priest’s Chalice
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Copycat
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
King’s Crown
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Copycat
Priest’s Chalice
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Copycat
Doppelganger
The Mirror Queen
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Coin Purse
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Gold Ring
Coin Purse
Priest’s Chalice
Priest’s Chalice
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Copycat
Copycat
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Glass Golem
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
The Mirror Queen
Genie’s Lamp
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Copycat
King’s Crown
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
King’s Crown
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Copycat
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
The Mirror Queen
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Genie’s Lamp
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Priest’s Chalice
Coin Purse
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Genie’s Lamp
Gold Ring
King’s Crown
Copycat
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Glass Golem
Sacred Treasure
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Priest’s Chalice
Copycat
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Sacred Treasure
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Copycat
Doppelganger
Copycat
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Copycat
Coin Purse
Copycat
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
The Mirror Queen
Priest’s Chalice
Gold Ring
Copycat
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
King’s Crown
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Coin Purse
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Copycat
Priest’s Chalice
Genie’s Lamp
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Copycat
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Priest’s Chalice
The Mirror Queen
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Coin Purse
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Gold Ring
King’s Crown
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Sacred Treasure
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Copycat
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
The Mirror Queen
Copycat
Doppelganger
Copycat
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Copycat
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Genie’s Lamp
Gold Ring
Coin Purse
Gold Ring
Copycat
Priest’s Chalice
Priest’s Chalice
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Glass Golem
Copycat
Copycat
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Copycat
Copycat
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Genie’s Lamp
Genie’s Lamp
Copycat
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Copycat
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Coin Purse
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Priest’s Chalice
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Copycat
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Genie’s Lamp
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Coin Purse
Priest’s Chalice
King’s Crown
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Copycat
Copycat
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
The Mirror Queen
Copycat
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Copycat
Doppelganger
Genie’s Lamp
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
King’s Crown
Gold Ring
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Sacred Treasure
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Doppelganger
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Copycat
Doppelganger
Copycat
Gold Ring
Copycat
Doppelganger
King’s Crown
Priest’s Chalice
King’s Crown
Doppelganger
Priest’s Chalice
Genie’s Lamp
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
King’s Crown
Copycat
Copycat
Coin Purse
Priest’s Chalice
Copycat
Glass Golem
Gold Ring
Gold Ring
Copycat
Genie’s Lamp
Doppelganger
Glass Golem
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Coin Purse
Doppelganger
Copycat
Gold Ring
Copycat
Gold Ring
Copycat
Coin Purse
The Mirror Queen

Screenshots to verify my data:

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image4032×3024 3.68 MB

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image4032×3024 3.77 MB

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image2016×1512 1.29 MB

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image2016×1512 1.3 MB

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image4032×3024 3.27 MB

Apologies for the disparity the image below will have—I forgot to take the treasure “after” screen before I purchased through Tier IV in the event shop:

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image4032×3024 3.6 MB

5 Likes
22

Yeah, this. We shouldn’t find any significant difference in terms of overall drop ratios, but knowing the ordering of the individual samples allows for a Runs test. Also, to determine if there is any significant difference from using the single pull versus 10 pulls - to which, at a glance and over these relatively large sample sets from Magnusimus and Dust_Angel, these seem to line up quite well with previous reports of attempting to mythic all faction troops (where they were almost surely done with x10 pulls).

Thanks for the data everyone. Looking at it quickly for established patterns (expectation of 7200~8k shards to mythic all faction troops, rings > chalices > purses at nearly 2:1 ratios, >50% overall treasures) shows no reason to suspect anything has changed. I’ll input and crunch full numbers when I have the time (Tuesday probably).

8 Likes
23

Haven’t had time to run the numbers here just yet. Keep getting distracted by, well, the main reason I asked for them in the first place. I don’t expect any “big reveals” running the basic data sets here and expect them to confirm what the status quo was at this point, but I’m still going to document them.

The individual pulls sets I still plan on doing a Runs test on, but I’m not sure what approach to use now that it has been revealed that every troop and most treasures could have rolled whether or not “Troop” or “Treasure” was the original roll… and there are at least two known random operations (and sometimes three) per individual drop pulled to get to the last drop. I suppose I can still do the Runs test on “treasures versus troops” to see how this stacks up as “random” versus a simulated sequential single layer random sequence with a 54.2/45.8 split, or maybe just check one of the “rare” troops or treasures versus everything else since each individually should be appearing at a high enough rate for these to be good sample sizes. Even if we can’t get a good conclusion off this, we can repeat the test in the next month or so with the “fixed” code to see if the “streakiness” was significantly impacted by the code using a different sequence of random operation to get us to what is supposed to be the same results.

7 Likes
24

In @Mithran I trust, no matter the timetable :+1:

25

Based on happenings in the other thread, it looks like this might be worthwhile once the dust settles.