Data Gathering - Portal Drop Rates

Hello,

Since we haven’t been told anything whether or not portal drop rates would be changing, and a new faction is here very soon, I figured it would be prudent to document what we are getting. Before it goes up, I am humbly asking for anybody that is able to simply document their drops. A four screenshot series that shows before/after for troops and treasures along with stating how many chaos shards used (or portals opened) should be sufficient. Compiling it into a table or list by type and rarity is appreciated, but not required.

Requesting:

  • Before screenshot of troops from the faction you are pulling (in this case Kingdom Filter > Mirrored Halls, should have at the epic in there if you used the shop first, or nothing otherwise)
  • Before screenshot of any hoard screen to show how many treasures you have.
  • After screenshot of the faction kingdom filter to show troops
  • After screenshot of the hoard to show treasures
  • State how many portals you opened (or before and after screenshots of your shard count, for checksum confirmation that troops + treasures pulled = portals opened)

If anyone is feeling particularly generous and has a lot of time, recording each result from a bunch of consecutive single portal pulls would also be helpful. I’d do this one myself, but I just don’t delve enough to worry about maxing every faction or have the shards to do so.

Looking for Mirrored Halls only right now for this thread please, to see if anything has changed. If you have older data to share, you can put it here and I’ll add it to the pile: Chaos Portal drop rate displays are incorrect (and the math that shows why, and what to do about it)

4 Likes

To allay any fears, we won’t be changing the distribution of drops.

There was a small bug server side, and in the next update we will be changing the numbers to more accurately reflect the current drop rates.

7 Likes

We would love to hear more about how and why this happened (and how it doesn’t affect any other drop table, so we can at least move back toward being able to implicitly trust what the game tells us to be truth). Official News post, please?

Edit: And also how to report potential drop issues without having them get dismissed out of hand. I feel like I had to push way too hard for this.

3 Likes

Unfortunately, it is past 6 PM on a Friday, and it has been a busy week with a lot of staff away due to public holidays, myself included. As such, I am happy to write up a post on Monday, which was my original intention. However, I wanted to allay any fears going into the release of Mirrored Halls.

I will be briefly checking in over the weekend as well, but will not be replying in a detailed, official capacity until the next working week.

8 Likes

Thank you. Looking forward to that post when it comes.

1 Like

I’ve made the screenshots you requested and am opening portals now. Let me know if you still want me to post the data tomorrow for posterity.

Thanks for the update, Salty!

1 Like

Sure, can’t hurt to post them. I’ll probably still spreadsheet stuff both now and after the next patch lands just in case.

3 Likes

:vulcan_salute:

2 Likes

Sorry uploading from phone made for a scrambled order

:sweat_smile::pray::vulcan_salute:




Will run the numbers later when I have more time.

3 Likes

how many shards spent?

Saw this thread after I opened chests so some are just normal SS that I take.
SS is from 2 days ago:


Shards prior to opening portals:

Bought Tier 1-4 in the shop but didn’t get a ST from the shop:

Troops and quantity:

Shards remaining:

4 Likes

Forgot to properly filter faction troops before opening the portal… well, I hope this still helps.

4 Likes

I believe this should be it.
Before:


mir%20halls%20troops%20before
After

mir%20halls%20troops%20after

And, since @Mithran asked with kindness, here goes:

Summary

START
59,007 shards

doppelganger
doppelganger
purse
ring
chalice
glass golem
ring
ring
ring
chalice
ring
ring
doppelganger
purse
doppleganger
chalice
doppelganger
glass golem
ring
ring
ring
ring
ring
chalice
mirror queen
ring
sacred treasure
doppelganger
chalice
ring
copycat
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
glass golem
lamp
glass golem
copycat
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
ring
crown
crown
doppelganger
chalice
doppelganger
chalice
ring
ring
-------1000 shards used-------
ring
purse
doppelganger
purse
copycat
ring
ring
doppelganger
purse
doppelganger
copycat
crown
doppelganger
glass golem
ring
chalice
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
chalice
doppelganger
ring
doppelganger
crown
copycat
crown
doppelganger
doppelganger
chalice
ring
ring
copycat
doppelganger
purse
doppelganger
copycat
lamp
copycat
ring
ring
ring
mirror queen
ring
doppelganger
purse
chalice
mirror queen
ring
copycat
doppelganger
------2000 shards used-------
ring
mirror queen
doppelganger
doppelganger
chalice
copycat
purse
chalice
lamp
copycat
chalice
ring
doppelganger
purse
doppelganger
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
doppelganger
crown
chalice
ring
chalice
doppelganger
doppelganger
chalice
glass golem
glass golem
sacred treasure
ring
doppelganger
ring
glass golem
ring
doppelganger
chalice
doppelganger
doppelganger
doppelganger
ring
doppelganger
crown
purse
copycat
chalice
doppelganger
glass golem
--------3000 shards used--------
copycat
mirror queen
ring
doppelganger
chalice
lamp
doppelganger
glass golem
crown
ring
copycat
doppelganger
doppelganger
chalice
ring
chalice
ring
ring
chalice
copycat
chalice
purse
ring
chalice
doppelganger
purse
ring
copycat
lamp
crown
doppelganger
ring
crown
doppelganger
doppelganger
doppelganger
copycat
copycat
crown
copycat
purse
ring
doppelganger
mirror queen
ring
copycat
ring
doppelganger
crown
mirror queen
-------4000 shards used--------
doppelganger
chalice
chalice
ring
doppelganger
copycat
mirror queen
ring
ring
doppelganger
copycat
purse
ring
lamp
doppelganger
copycat
mirror queen
mirror queen
ring
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
copycat
lamp
ring
doppelganger
ring
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
copycat
doppelganger
glass golem
ring
doppelganger
ring
doppelganger
copycat
doppelganger
doppelganger
ring
copycat
lamp
chalice
ring
purse
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
ring
------5000 shards used---------
ring
ring
copycat
copycat
chalice
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
doppelganger
doppelganger
copycat
doppelganger
ring
doppelganger
glass golem
doppelganger
chalice
doppelganger
glass golem
copycat
ring
ring
chalice
glass golem
copycat
doppelganger
copycat
ring
copycat
purse
doppelganger
ring
chalice
ring
purse
chalice
doppelganger
crown
doppelganger
ring
copycat
doppelganger
doppelganger
copycat
ring
copycat
purse
copycat
ring
doppelganger
-----6000 shards used-----
doppelganger
purse
lamp
ring
ring
mirror queen
purse
ring
doppelganger
glass golem
ring
doppelganger
doppelganger
copycat
doppelganger
doppelganger
ring
ring
copycat
chalice
doppelganger
chalice
chalice
doppelganger
chalice
copycat
chalice
copycat
ring
purse
doppelganger
chalice
ring
purse
sacred treasure
purse
chalice
copycat
copycat
ring
copycat
doppelganger
doppelganger
crown
purse
ring
copycat
glass golem
glass golem
ring
------7000 shards used-------
ring
ring
chalice
sacred treasure
copycat
doppelganger
ring
doppelganger
crown
mirror queen
copycat
doppelganger
chalice
chalice
purse
chalice
doppelganger
doppelganger
doppelganger
doppelganger
copycat
ring
sacred treasure
ring
ring
purse
glass golem
chalice
glass golem
----7580 shards used------
4x mythic copies

51,427 shards
END

5 Likes

How curious… do you expect to find a difference?

So many worshipers of Rngesus, but they so often overlook the holy trinity of mean, deviation, and variance.

A long time ago, mr strange said things about how the rng was implemented on consoles. Now that all platforms are on unity, some of the old seed and salt discussions are relevant. Oh, and this is old legacy code that the devs may not know much about. Or atleast, way before salty’s time. Ozzball as a player may remember some.

Consecutive single-portal openings, with no other activity between, would allow for streakiness testing.

—————————————

Here are my photos.

Before, shard count:


Before, treasure count:

Before, troop count (I bought Tier VI in the shop):

After, shard count:


After, treasure count:

After, troop count:

(Like last month, I had two copies of the legendary after 4,000 shards. That sure changed.)

1 Like

All pulls in bulk right after completing the quest line:

Purse Ring Chalice Crown Lamp Treasure Doppelganger Copycat Golem Queen
1 3 0 1 0 0 3 2 0 0
3 1 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 0
2 0 0 0 1 0 4 2 0 1
1 1 0 0 1 0 7 0 0 0
0 4 2 0 0 1 1 0 1 1
1 3 1 1 1 0 1 0 2 0
0 4 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1
0 2 2 0 2 0 3 1 0 0
1 2 2 1 0 0 2 1 1 0
1 0 0 1 0 0 5 1 2 0
2 5 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0
2 2 0 1 0 0 3 2 0 0
0 2 1 0 1 0 0 3 1 2
0 1 2 1 1 1 3 1 0 0
0 5 0 0 0 1 3 1 0 0
1 2 1 0 0 0 5 0 1 0
1 2 2 0 0 0 1 3 1 0
2 3 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 0
0 4 0 0 2 0 3 0 1 0
0 0 4 1 0 0 4 1 0 0
2 4 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 0
1 2 0 0 1 0 5 1 0 0
0 4 3 0 1 0 2 0 0 0
1 1 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 1
1 3 2 0 0 0 2 1 1 0
1 1 4 0 0 0 2 1 1 0
1 2 2 0 0 0 3 2 0 0
0 4 1 0 0 0 4 0 1 0
1 0 2 1 0 0 3 2 1 0
0 1 2 0 0 0 2 4 0 1
0 4 0 0 1 0 4 1 0 0
2 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 2 1
0 1 1 1 0 0 3 3 1 0
1 5 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
3 Likes

Requested Screenshots:

Click to view screenshots.

BEFORE:




AFTER:




8,060 Shards were used to get all the troops to mythic. The rare troop took the longest to max.
I opened 38 sets of 10 portals then I opened 23 single portals until I maxed the rare troop.


Portal Stats

portal_stats
Total Troops/Treasures: 403
Treasure Amt: 53%
Troop Amt: 47%


Coin Purse Gold Ring Priest’s Chalice King’s Crown Genie’s Lamp Sacred Treasure
8.4% 23.3% 11.2% 5.7% 3.7% 0.5%
Doppleganger Copycat Glass Golem The Mirror Queen
22.6% 14.4% 8.2% 2.0%

4 Likes

4000 shards used…104 Treasures/96 Troops

Treasures, from Mythic to Common: 1 7 10 29 42 15
Troops: 2 12 31 51

Apologies for not using the desired format. Good luck on your quest, have fun storming the castle. :blush::+1:

Not with 10,000 Elves can this be done. It is folly.

2 Likes

It’s possible, depending on the RNG and what sources of entropy it has. Since it’s server-side we don’t get to peek at its workings.

But it’s plausible that if you pull 10 troops, it either asks for 10 random numbers then uses that set as the data, or it just calls “pull 1 troop” 10 times in quick succession. Either way, that puts all the RNG requests “near” each other for that data set.

But doing 1 pull at a time means much more time is passing between each RNG call. Depending on implementation that could mean more dramatic changes to the RNG state between pulls.

It’s all black box, so we don’t know if it will give us different data or not. For a good RNG with no bias, it shouldn’t matter. But even then, there’s the small chance that a good RNG rolls a suspicious data set. Testing and verifying RNG behavior involves impossibly large runs and a bit of artistic interpretation of the data, I’ve read essays about it from an implementor’s perspective but it really comes down to a lot of words dressing up “you run it a zillion times over weeks and make sure the times you detect patterns are as rare and unpredictable as the smaller datasets.”

1 Like