Vault Weekend data collection - for w/e 13 Sept

More detailed post to come when I have more time and am less tired — but for now:

Gnome Counter at 0/30
11 Vault Keys
0 Epic Vault Keys

609 Gnomes (610 by the time I started typing this up)
47 Vault Keys
15 Pity Vault Keys
0 Epic Vault Keys
Stopped tracking type of gnomes by day 3 since I knew I was going to get angry by this whole thing.

Had under 2k trophies before the start of the Vault event.
Didn’t get an Epic Vault Key last time.

I guess I didn’t play enough to get an Epic Vault Key.
Or maybe I should have paid money for their Epic Vault Key… oh wait, that isn’t available yet.

I’ve already tried opening 191 Vault Keys around the last Vault Event. I’m having no luck at all with this :poop:

You know what else has 10% in Gems of War? Using 1 Gold Ring to upgrade Horde Quality in delves. Would I ever fail upgrading Hoard level with a Gold Ring 60+ times in a row? Absolutely not.


290 gnomes
26 vault keys (not including pity keys)
0 epic

Total from this event and last event for me:
700 gnomes
57 vault keys (not including pity keys)
0 epic

Xbox achievement hasn’t moved all weekend still sitting on 0.03% How long will the devs continue to be silent? This could be the proverbial straw for me that gives me the push I need to finally quit this game. If they put one in a flash offer that will do me in for sure.


This is how I feel, too. Between this event and the last one, I’ve spent over 30 hours getting over 60 keys, playing a mode that is frustratingly designed that crashes the entire game constantly.

Epic vault keys aren’t even good game design. The rewards are insignificant, so all they do is make regular vault keys feel bad. They just exist to make completionists unhappy. Sorry for the negativity here, but I really wonder why I’m still playing this game.

Edited with cumulative weekend stats:

Gnomes encountered: 400
Normal key drops: 32
Epic key drops: 0
An additional 72*3=186 non-Cedric gnomes from vaults that weren’t counted in the above 400

Final tracker at 10/65. Just under 10k trophies earned.
Chance of failing a 10% roll 32 consecutive times: 3.43%.


Here’s my results. I didn’t declare it, but I intended to share however it goes, so you can count it with pre-committed I think.

1071 fights, of those 108 with gnomes, yielding 6 vault keys. I tracked the gnomes individually, but lines up with final of gnome tracker: 3/35

I had 5 pet gnomes (I played explore mostly), 54 treasure, 8 glory, 15 jewel, 10 soul, 10 mecha and 6 daemon gnomes.

Of those 108 gnomes, 6 dropped vault keys. No epics. Got an extra 6 keys from the gnome tracker.

I also used 13 vault keys on Hard difficulty, no vault keys (regular or epic) dropped there. But I did get a Daemon gnome, which is what I was hoping for, so in the end, got what I hoped for from this week :smiley:

:thinking: :thinking: :thinking:

Gnomes: 176
Vault Keys: 16 (not counting the 7 keys I got from the tracker)
Epic Vault keys: 0

I did some pvp to get some pet battles started - 111 pvp battles in total out of my 1071 recorded battles, if it matters :slight_smile: Those PvP battles also yielded 5 treasure gnomes, 1 soul and 1 mecha gnome.

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Tell me the secret! How are you combining being idle and achieving 13k trophies in a week? :wink:


So I didn’t really play a whole lot, but figure I may as well add my data to the aggregate anyway.

15 gnomes, 1 VK, 0 EVK, not including anything from the tracker. Screenshots and notes taken of most encounters and rewards.

I think mitamata’s trying to say it probably would have been a bigger number of Pet Gnomes if more PvP had been played? :man_shrugging:


The secret is… very carefully :gem_doomskull:

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152 gnomes, 13 vault keys (excluding pity keys), 0 epic keys,1361 battles

My fellow guildmates, you have been robbed by either A) Incompetent devs or B) Liars!
As I am not in their heads, its impossible for me to say its A or B but I can say with total guarantee that there is not an option C.

Just for the fun, @fleg you had same probability to receive 13 EVK as to receive 0 when collecting 57 VK. @Idle with 47 Vk collected, you had more chances to receive 10 EVK than to receive 0.

I wonder where are all the hard core players who received 8, 10 or 12 EVKs??? Because there should be as much hardcore players with such high numbers of EVKs than ones with 0 EVKs. ohhh wait…there cant be any as the drop rate is around 1% and not 10%…

It will be interesting to see for how much longer they will keep taking players for fools about that.



Here’s the data I collected across my 3 accounts (2 PC/1 xbox):

Total battles: 945

Pet gnomes: 9 (1 VK)
Treasure gnomes: 29 (5 VK)
Glory gnomes: 14 (1 VK)
Jewel gnomes: 12
Mecha gnomes: 8
Soul gnomes: 13 (1 VK)

Vault Keys (excluding free keys): 8
Epic Vault Keys: 0

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haha no im not including those. I found 77 total vault keys with 60 from gnomes and 17 from the tracker

I’ll add more data to the Google Doc and original post if more turn up, but here’s a snapshot report 4.5 hours after the event has ended.

On the face of it, unhappy people may be more inclined towards submitting after the fact, skewing the results. :man_shrugging:

Vault Weekend (2020-09-11) - 2 sets of numbers

  10.3  [A] battles to encounter 1 gnome (16111/1559)  |   10.2  (26336/2579)
  11.5  [B] gnomes to drop 1 key          (2514/218)   |   11.9   (5862/391)
   2.3% [C] of vault key drops are epic      (5/218)   |    1.0%     (5/491)
 5,196  [D] battles to receive 1 epic vault key        | 11,972

    12  total samples - *not all samples contain all metrics*
        [D] is projected from [A] x [B] / [C]

(**devs have never stated such a distinction - we’re just analyzing such a hypothesis)

The collapsed wall of text tests a posited hypothesis that {A} EVK rate is correct at 10% outside of events, but {B}** EVK rate is not boosted during vault events while {C} VK rate is

To test this theory

  • we could interpret “10%” as 1 epic for every 10 normal (i.e. 1/11) instead of 1 key out of every 10 being an epic (i.e. 1/10)** AND
  • ignoring all the data that were submitted (sorry! no disrespect!) but not committed beforehand

** both are shown below. Salty has said it is the latter, but I show the former to better fit a narrative

Then we take the truths of this hypothesis to work out the elusive boost in vault key drop-rate from gnomes during vault weekends:

  unboosted-EVK:unboosted-VK-rate ÷ unboosted-EVK:boosted-VK-rate
= boosted-VK-rate ÷ unboosted-VK-rate
= boost-multiplier

= (1/11) / 2.294%      OR      (1/10) / 2.294%
=  3.96                OR       4.36

One would have to believe that (normal) vault key drops are boosted by (only?) 4x - 4.4x during vault events. Or to put numbers based on the data collected for this event:

during vault event: ~ 12 gnomes to drop 1 key (observed)
all other times   : ~ 47-52 gnomes to drop 1 key (according to hypothesis)

I haven’t been around that long or battled enough gnomes outside events to make any conclusions, but others have stated that even 1 vault key per 1000 gnomes outside of events would be generous. Empirically, this would put paid to the hypothesis.

It’s not "4x - 4.4x ", not even close.
During gnome weekends gnome appearance rate is boosted x3 - from 3% to 9% (except one special weekend when it was boosted x5).
The chance for Vault key is boosted much more.
During gnome weekend the chance is ~9%. Outside of gnome weekend, the chance is much less than 1%, probably even less than 0.5%. I killed hundreds of gnomes outside of gnome weekend since their release and got Vault key only twice. Many players are even not aware that Vault keys can drop outside of gnome weekend, because it is so rare.


I didn’t pre-commit to tracking, but I did it anyway. I spent time in pvp to get pet gnome, then explore until it expired. Not on the same level of playing time as most posting, but hope it helps…
Friday: 175 battles / 17 gnomes / 2 VK / 0 EVK
Sat: 436 battles / 29 gnomes / 2 VK / 0 EVK
Sun: 170 battles / 43 gnomes / 3 VK / 0 EVK
Did not include the 5 pity keys

Note: this event was my best at VK drop and Sunday was a gnome-fest