I’ve been trying to add an average tribute calculation to the Task Analyzer tool since I have the data on the user’s kingdom power from GowDB. And I can’t make it match my empirical data.
What I basically do is find out the tribute chance and multiplier, multiply them with each kingdom’s base tribute values and add everything up. The trouble is, if I compare the results with actual values (so far about 70 data points total which seems lime it should be sufficient to confirm this), there is a clear discrepancy: I get significantly more resources than expected. It’s about 60% more for gold (although most of this is due to the “income” being added in, so gold is problematic anyway) and 10-20% more for glory/souls/gems, which I can’t explain.
I’m stumped since I can verify the individual kingdom tribute amounts and chances being correct and the summing/averaging code is very strightforward. I include the guild statue bonuses for levels 100+. I do ignore the home kingdom setting for the moment, but I know it has a very small effect (and can only affect glory with Whitehelm). So basically it looks like there might be some non-obvious logical/statistical thing that I’m missing.
I know it has been confirmed (see this thread: Tribute statistics) that the game doesn’t cheat on tribute chances. So it looks like it’s either my (quadruple-checked) code or my data (another contributing player sees the same differences) but the differences seem way too big to be explained by having too few samples.
Has any one been successful in calculating the correct averages?