It’s not really that hard. Users with beta server access have already battled beyond free sigils and posted estimated scores at minute 1 after reset. Trivial enough to post the list of troops that will appear in sequence, and we slap on x1 - x1.18 - x1.3 ranges to scores at all tier breaks and away you go deciding whether to luck it knowing full well how many of each troop there are on offer.
It’s not like someone won’t discover the exact same sequence of troops - so not a secret that cannot be shared is it!?
Note: only need to go through 5 battles to know if the troop sequence has been reset between beta/live - I doubt it but who knows.
I hit 40 battles before I ran out of sigils. Debating buying additional tiers to hit 62 battles (and I can hear the devs in my ear hissing doooo iiiiitttt…), but my score after 40 no-Guai battles is only 336.
I am sitting at 62 battles and 630 points in the no-Guai plan. Pretty far short of the 733 points that the person on the leaderboard had when they hit 62 battles.
Anyone on the leaderboard in the early stages after reset with scaling scores may have received one or two x2 or x3 bonuses. These push their points up significantly in the case of Yao Guai, giving an extra 30-60 points. The spread from 630 to 733 however is too high for just that single reason.
You would have had to take 10 hounds at low points (6-8) against 10 YG at average of 18 points to accumulate a difference of 100 points.
Now that you have reached 62 battles, how many YG did you chance upon in that time?
My Yao is still in its original position on the board. I never took the battle, and it never disappeared, so I’ve just been rotating between the other three battle spots.
After 72 battles, I have 785 points. My daily totals can be fitted by a quadratic function: P(n) = 0.0831*n^2 + 4.933*n, where P is the number of points I expect after n battles. Unlike the Yao path, this should be deterministic—assuming that Hound battles follow a pre-rolled order and are not randomly generated for each player.
While I am much too lazy to do the checking myself, it should be possible to compare this function against the leaderboard and see whether no-Guai really is better than the alternative. Heaven knows my guildmates have been suffering mightily from Yao’s true damage while I blissfully ignore that battle at every turn.
Edit: as of this moment, the #7 player on the leaderboard has done 195 battles and scored 4502 points. The #9 player has also done 195 battles and scored 3411 points—almost 1100 points difference for the same number of battles! (My formula suggests that I would have 4121 points at this number of battles.) This is an astonishing, borderline appalling, amount of variation in score.
Fake edit: things are even worse at the top of the leaderboard. #2 has 7354 points on 254 battles, while #5 has 5466 points from 256 battles—nearly 2000 more points from 2 fewer battles. (My formula posits 6708 points.)
Experience is the mother of good judgement, bad judgement is the father of experience. Next time you’ll know to wait until someone from the community has pulled a troop supposed to have been available after 3 - 4 weeks.
@Saltypatra
You came out and stated that a physical human selects which medals are the boost for the World Event weeks.
But what selects the parameters of the World Event themselves in terms of Troop Restrictions and our opponents?
Case in point. A majority of our battles this week were against a troop that was just released today… Bounty Weekend - Hound of Yao Guai.
Which is unprecedented in regards of a troop that will eventually be in chests. A human would know that the troop is released on Friday. Your AI would just know that the troop enters the Kingdom pool that week.
Maybe it matters, maybe it doesn’t.
But if a Human selects what Medals will be used during a World Event before the AI decides the restrictions and the opponents. Then it certainly matters in terms of Entertainment, Difficulty, Functionality, and Player Retention. The 4 pillars your company should be worried about before Profitablity.
I had 3 early Yao battles that gave 2 cores (battle 14 and earlier), the following ones were all ones (did 23 in total).
Feels like both accounts played it right and got the most out of it given the gem spend. It’s weeks like this one that make me really appreciate the forums & GoW discord community Also, weeks like this one make me extra frustrated that stuff like this is not clear in any way in-game