True. I’d actually value the gem at a bit higher than the lost event keys in the first place, so net gain there. Taking those into account, net gain for non VIP, net loss for VIP. I did include that in my other “gem value” calculation I quoted earlier, though at 180 diamonds for ~70-227 lost gem value. 25% more gold buys you 3.9 legendary tasks, which, by the looks of it, will not get you anywhere close to what was lost. Waiting for more data to run the numbers again while putting in 25% more gold total per week instead of reducing the rewards, and see what rewards that gets you overall. I may or may not try to table out what 25% more gold actually gets you at every step on the Guild Task table. Waiting for next week to be sure, because I’ve already redone this a couple times as new information has come in.
Taking the patch as a whole and not just tasks, a lot of people are going to see a net gain in mythic colelction - not from the tasks, but because dungeons offer crafting components. The crafting components given equate to 0.2345 “free” mythics per month that was not previously available on any reward table. They get a lot less troops total for any given contribution level, but if you can keep up with collection goals this is just less bloat through shotgunning, more useful stuff down the road. All good things. My only concern here is still being consistently above the collection threshold being VIP5 before.
There is no way you can target a legendary just a month after of its release with any sort of reliability. I still haven’t gotten another copy of Sekhma, and we’ve gone through three mythic release periods where she was in chests. The rates are about 1/168 in glory keys, and 1/42 for gem keys, with an additional 1/45 to get the one that you want. Going off gem keys and the current amount of legendaries in the pool, you can be expected to get as many legendaries as there are in the collection on average every 1.89 mythics you get, but their distribution within that is random. Plus, this number increases indefinitely with the age of the game. Also, while we are on the subject, that is one of the inherent problems with the way the system has worked in the past - the shotgunning method often gets you stuff you weren’t even aiming for because there is no way to dial in. So, on average three months after it released, since the mythic immediately following it would not have , and it would not be smart resource allocation to open even a single key outside of mythic exclusive period in the current climate. Maybe faster, maybe slower, maybe waiting all the way until next event or even being forced to craft it.
The gems. Up until the point where I no longer have a scarcity barrier for getting mythics with VIP keys. Once no extra gems would be helpful in the near future (holding pattern with the release cycle while already getting Sunday Gem Bounty every week), the diamonds, because they are more scare and I’ve surpassed all relevant uses for gems that are of equal or greater purchasing power to the 4k diamonds (VIP chests, Sunday Gem Bounty).
On a one month cycle for a VIP 5 player with a decent amount of resources, heres my resource recommendations:
Buy only Sunday Gem Bounty packs. The others are garbage value by comparison. For long term gains, Sunday only.
Clear dungeons every day.
Save all crafting resources for a mythic you actually want to use.
Stop when you get one mythic.
When a mythic releases, if you aren’t doing 40k seals on either week, wait until monday. This gives you the greatest chance of lucking into something you might need to ascend
If you have the seals and are on a 40k week, open them, if not, don’t. There is a tenfold difference in purchasing power dependent on this one factor, the difference between 0.6 mythics on average and 0.06. Open these first. This might delay your ability to ascend guild wars troops down the road, and having guild wars troops on the table also halves the purchasing power of these keys before they are mythic +4. If you are close to mythic +4 on whatever troop is in these chest, be sure to check your collection often so you can ascend all 6 to remove them from the drop pool.
Open gem keys on hand in groups of 50.
If a new kingdom has been released and your rares are not fully ascended yet, open Glory Keys in groups of 50.
Open VIP keys on hand.
Use gems to open VIP keys. Using 10 packs is safer than 50, but lowers your overall purchasing power. Never less than 10, IMO.
If you have less than 5k gems on hand, reevaluate how badly you want the mythic and possibly skip it, otherwise, go back and use your gems and glory keys. Raw glory is not worth spending here unless you really want this specific mythic, right now and I’d clear out gems before resorting to that even.
And you are done. If you have missed this mythic and don’t have 2k diamonds on hand at this point and/or have more missing mythics (not counting Xantheos) as when crafting landed, you are now below the collection threshold.
To facilitate this, may also need to do this:
Never open any key that can drop a mythic on a day where it can’t drop an exclusive mythic. The exception is event keys for getting legendary.
Never target a mythic with event keys. Opportunity cost is too high. Exception is if you also need a legendary in the kingdom.
Open event keys in 10 packs for keys on hand. always stop at 1 copy of any legendary.
If you run out of event keys, purchase them using glory (spoils of war in the shop), not gems. You can get an event key for 180 glory. If you are at the point of scarcity on both gems and glory, you can farm glory, but not gems.
For new kingdoms, only open the bare minimum of event keys to fill out the roster unless the skill bonus is magic and you feel you can reasonably complete it during next mythic push. Open gold keys as you see fit, but ascending commons you wont use won’t do you much good if you can’t get kingdom stars out of it. If you can’t immediately five star, three star is plenty.