It’s not just an assumption, it’s a mathematical analysis based on the possible arrangements of doors, with the one assumption being the exact method of RNG used to assign the doors (i.e. that all permutations have an equal chance of being the case).
If you remove the Boon room entirely, that leaves 3 bosses and 2 traps in any order, which is 120 permutations with 12 of them being perfect runs (i.e. B1->B2->B3->T1T2, B2->B1->B3->T2T1, etc.), or 12 combinations with 1 perfect run (B->B->B->TT). Thus, the calcluation yields precisely 10%.
However, the presence of the double-stairs bug is mystifying because it implies the doors could be rolled individually upon click (e.g. random[1,n] where n is the number of remaining doors, then tested against x,y,z representing the # of remaining bosses/traps/boon) or, alternatively, there is just some bug in how the doors are assigned/shuffled.
Unfortunately for us, only the devs have access to global (serverside) stats of perfect run rates and whether that looks normal compared to the calculated value.
This is corrective RNG being proposed potentially. Which means it isn’t currently used in game so wasting time trying pattern recognition is self delusional. It’s a 6 window lottery for now at least unless ‘pity dragonite’ is really a viable consideration.
That’s what I’m thinking might be happening. And if that’s the case, just the thought of trying to figure out the odds gives me a headache
At 2/58 now.
Doing it over two accounts makes it double frustrating. One account made it to level 9 tonight (that’s where the 2 perfect runs were), the other is stuck on level 2. If I had just the unlucky account, I’d be crushed by now.
It’s exactly the same odds. Speaking probabilities, you are blindly taking six out of six items from a bag, one after the other, and placing each behind an individual door. It doesn’t matter whether you do that right at the start for all six doors or for each door as it gets opened.
But it depends on the implementation, does it not? Example, when opening the first door, maybe there’s a 1 in 3 chance to get each outcome. Then on second door, either 1 in 2 if first door was boon, or 1 in 3 if first door was battle or trap. Or something like that? Without knowing how they implemented the dungeons, there’s no way to know.
2/62 for perfect runs.
1 out of 7 times the 1st door I opened had a battle. Not reading too much into that, probably just the result of a small data set.
As someone who has 0 perfect runs so far, thought I would spread the word: Everyone in this thread may be interested to know that the outcome of each door is not truly random. For example, (assuming you haven’t opened anything yet), doors 4 and 5 are half as likely to contain a trap as doors 1, 2, 3, and 6.
Not sure what the forum’s rules are on sharing links, but check out Sinnycool’s channel and I’m sure you’ll find the vid.