Did updates reduce the chance for tributes?

On the day of the release ive got 2 times no tributes at all. Thats amazing considering i havent been left out without any tributes for about 4 months previous to that (maybe even more) and had it happen twice 2 days ago on the same day. And my home kingdoms are almost exactly like yours so our chances are similar.

The boost you get from your guild should be slightly higher, too

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Testing evidence shows the guild bonus is not being applied at all.

Yeah those guild bonuses arent really showing at all.

Regarding Tribute Chance Rewards, I think there is a bug with Whitehelm. I’ve been experimenting for the last 2 weeks. I get much more Kingdoms paying tribute and tons more Glory using Swords Edge or Dragons Claw vs. using Whitehelm. With Whitehelm, I rarely get good tributes…

Most of my Kingdoms are 7 Stars and almost all Kingdoms are to Level 10.

NowayJoe2Go

Although Nimhain mentioned the red statue bonus has been fixed, since my last message, I’ve been getting 2-5 tributes most of the time, which is a huge drop from my previous average of 5-8.

Ok, I did get 10 once, 8 twice, but I also got 1 tribute twice more, for a total of 7 times 1 Tribute in just over 5 days. That, again, is extremely unlikely to be random.

And Onyxia Deep Breaths more, too? ;p

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My tributes have been fantastic, numerous 8s and 9s, a few 10s, and even a 13.

Random is random.

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I’m sure you know the chances of getting 1 tribute (less than 1% chance) 7 times out of less than 100 tries (much less, but I’m rounding up because even so it’s absurd), right? My point here is to either figure out something that is not working as it should, or question the actual randomness of the RNG.

Well, it’s expected that RNG is never really random, but couldn’t those anomalies be better reduced? There are other examples of anomalies. Like this:


I once pulled 3 Mythics from 50 gem chests, too along with a few legendaries.
Also, it’s not uncommon that I get multiple Arcanes in a row (or every other match) from Exploring, then going through a very long sequence of Explores without getting any Arcanes.
Yesterday, I even got 3 Celestials in about 10-15 Explore matches.

The list could go on and on if we really stopped to keep track of anything (which I won’t do, because ultimately I’m a player who wants to have fun with a game, nothing else hehe)… But I don’t think random is as random as one would think/wish. =/

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It kinda sounds exact like the opposite - the random results are more random than you expected. Truly random results are noisy: there are peaks and valleys, there are clumps of the same unlikely outcome happening several times, there are even distributions followed by wild swings. Results along a nice bell curve are absolutely not random.

chance a kingdom is tribute: 0.212
chance of getting exactly 1 tribute = (0.212)^1*(0.788)^2627 = 0.01167
chance of getting 1 tribute 7 times in 100 collects = (0.01167)^7 * (0.98833)^93
100! / (93! * 7!) ~ 1 in 6,287

Considering I’m ranked 22,000 in pvp, that would mean on average at least 3 people would get 7 single tributes in a 100 collect set. You just happened to be one of them.

If you had every person in the US flip a coin 25 times, 10 of them would get all heads and 10 more would get all tails. And every one of them would swear their coin was fake.

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Wow, my terrible intuition made me think it would be way more unlikely to happen. Yeah, I didn’t bother to calculate, it just seemed obvious.

Well, sucks to be me, then. Maybe I can find my 2 soulmates on top 22k from pvp haha

EDIT: @Rasper I just wonder why 21.2% chance for tribute?

oh, self-bonk, they fixed that! It was 21.2% because it was broken and it should now be 26% (assuming guild bonus)

I got so used to 21.2 during my exhausting stat collection it just stuck in my head

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It just so happens that, for me, the chance is only 22%, so your numbers are probably close enough for me :wink:

My luck is not getting better. I got 1 tribute TWO more times. So I’ve recalculated with more accurate values:

Chance of exactly 1 tribute: (0,22*(0,78)^26)*27 = 0,9294929818%

Counting 8 days, an average of 15 tributes per day (which seems still slightly high, but close enough), 120 tributes.
So I’ve calculated the other part with the help of excel (B1 is the cell with the result above):

= (B1^9) * ((1-B1)^111) * FACT(120) / (FACT(111) * FACT(9))

The result is 0,0001920578% or basically 1 in 500,000.

Of course, it’s still possible and will always be. I just think it’s more likely that the RNG is not that random. I mean, at least I hope you can understand my frustration every time that single tributes pops up. And, put yourself in my position, isn’t it easy to associate such a difference in tribute drops to the 3.0 patch, since it all started one week ago? Even if it’s possible, it feels really awkward–maybe it’s not as easy to see when you’re not on my side of things, I don’t know. But it just doesn’t feel right.

With that luck, I suppose I should thank all Krystara gods for finding 1 Stonehammer after spending all keys I had saved up since the last mythic :sweat_smile:

Anyway, I think I’m done with this topic. I should just resign myself to whatever crappy results are thrown at me, be it by sheer bad luck or by imperfect RNG–none of them will be fixed anyway ¯\_(°_o)_/¯

As a player who spent 6 months using every key and gem earned without a single Mythic, I feel your pain on extreme RNG.

Also, I got a 17 kingdom tribute a few months back, which has a chance of 1 in 516,000. So the rare random things hit both directions.

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First; sorry for necroing. I could have made a new thread with title “Did updates enhance the chance for tributes”, but I tried instead to find the “newest” thread where tribute chances were discussed.

I know an issue with the Red Guild Statue was fixed in early April, however; the last (maybe 2 or so) weeks I seem to have got noticeably higher number of tributes. Way often I’ve got 10+, and less often 5-, than in several months. This could be pure anecdotal, so I wonder if anyone else have seen this?

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I’ve also been noticing a higher deviation of tributes - more >10 and more <5 than previously - in the last couple of weeks, so two anecdata is better than one, although they still don’t make a data?

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