Black and White Magic

Don’t skip a guaranteed 24 points until you know for sure another option is the same or higher points per individual.

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There’s no guaranteed optimal path. If you knew which battles would show up, you could math it out, but not knowing, you can’t.

For comparison, after 40 battles of just Pride for example, you’d have 940 points. Can you handle the Pride battle at level 400? If you did 40 battles of 4 Pride + 1 Kurandura sets, you’d have 816. If you do 40 battles, starting with 4 Pride + Kurandura and switch to only Pride when it starts being more valuable, you’d have 870 points.

But you’re unlikely to be able to do 40 battles of Pride straight. So maybe you pick a secondary one to level, eg. Mongo. If you did 20 battles of Pride and 20 of Mongo, you’d have only 540 points. If you did 40 battles of 4 Pride/Mongo + 1 Kurandara, you’d have slightly more, 560.

If you have a lot of sigils on hand and no issues taking on very high level opponents, then skipping Kurandara (except for once, for campaign task) would probably result in a higher score for you at the end. Basically, the more battles you’ll be doing, the more likely skipping Kurandara will pay off.


It’s an interesting one. Being able to plan ahead will probably make a big difference for those aiming for the leaderboard.

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Hiya,

Yes it seems you aren’t alone, it appears that the game rewards you on how many times you have battled that opponent rather than the level like the official scoring states. So you have chosen Minogor enough to pick up some extra hides and this has worked in your favour (well sort of, can’t say much is favourable and fantastic about this world event scoring)

Encouraging our guilds to keep trying to pick and level up the same battle type will help others score extra points prior to that originally calculated 220 too.

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It did’nt say black and white SCORING. :crazy_face:

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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Cv64Vg246K8m6GoaXdL5BqYmjclufH2Q-vLjE810ISA/edit?usp=sharing

image

You’re welcome to inspect the numbers behind this.
In the raw data, I have color-coded blocks to make it easier to see what is happening.

In the first model, it assumes the game makes you take 4 hides at minimum level before the “average hide level” increases by 1. If you take Kurandara, you make early gains (24), but your gearing for the future is delayed, because every 5 blocks increases the hide worth by 1 point. I believe this is what you mean by “fixed ratio”. This is the worst case scenario for gearing upwards, and takes 92 battles for the higher gearing (skipping Kurandara) to become more worthwhile.

This is halfway into a Tier 4 buy, so at your Tier 6 buy you are already GUARANTEED to do better. This is just applying maths.

image

However, observing the points on the leaderboard for just the first hour, it quickly became clear level progression moves up much faster, so on average, the “average points” given by hides goes up by somewhere nearer to every block 3 non-mythic fights, because you can skip the lowest one until the game decides to up-level all remaining choices on the map. Doing another comparison of taking/skipping Kurandara at levels increasing every 3 blocks of fights gives us a crossover point far earlier, i.e. around 69 battles - even at Tier 2, you could possibly be better off.

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I opened the Google sheet and immediately regretted it due to your color choices. Bright blue and bright yellow with white font? Honestly man.

I’m not going to spend an immense amount of time explaining why advising others of what should happen instead of what you know will happen is more harmful than helpful.

I’ll only comment on the charts that you posted that are actually user friendly.

You have two paths. But because there’s 5 different battles. I don’t believe you are accounting for the fact that you can’t pick one rarity/level for every single match.

Something like 10-15 matches of each battle type is required to equal/surpass a mythic battle that gives 24 points.
So 60 Sigils need to be used before your theory could possibly be beneficial.

Thank you, we’re in violent agreement. That 60 battles is why I recommended any T3+ purchase go for skipping Kurandara.

If I were ambitious or giving reckless advice, I would have said T2 benefits from it too. However I am certain based on analysing the scores on the leaderboard to 70+ battles to recommend T3+. Data is there, it just needs to be analysed. People doing 70 battles could score anywhere from 931 to 1087, which I believe is by far the MOST MASSIVE variance ever in World Event history. This ranges from taking the lowest battles always and Kurandara, to far better leveling rates than every 3 battles.

How and why it averages out at 3 battles per effective level increase is not the point, e.g. as you have found battling 2x Level 10 Mongo gives more points to the 2nd, or accelerated leveling from 180-220. What matters is that the 3-battle average (or better) holds.

@Kafka or @Saltypatra
Being able to see how many battles done is awesome!


I just wish it wasn’t exclusive to the top 100 on the leaderboard. It would be great to see in the guild leaderboard as well.

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I did 72 battles. So let’s say at the most of them 72 (3 Mythic battles out of 12 battles) points were generated above your 60 battles projection. Therefore Tier 3, and skipping all but one Mythic battle, should exceed this score by the end of the week right?

Yes that is the claim, sort of. (score posted was 1,117 for 72 battles)
The estimated breakpoint was around 69 battles not 60, and T3 sigils end up with about 81 battles, not directly comparable to your score.
FYI Tier 2 should end up with 70-75 battles, so I’ll edit this with my own score come d-day.

EDIT: This was originally quoted as the below, but awryan thought this misrepresents his post. I leave it up for posterity.

EDIT 2 - T2 sigils finished - Analysis as per Google Sheet here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1okyenoSaY78DU9Q8m-PVPoQvuNIijHFL9N2gT3Pnntw
(summary - yes, it is better to skip Kurandara’s for T3+ shop tiers)

Or you paraphrase what I said here.

We skin them? Why would we skin them? Ain’t no way for an ally to die. I guess Elspeth needs more shoes. Nasty Elveses. And they call me a barbarian.

My GW PvP defense went 1/2 with the event medal before I remembered to change back, and is now 0/3 without it. Maybe I should’ve left it alone, and stop complaining about having medals equipped to teams…nah, it’s my nature.

As is collecting Orc skulls, and now, Tauren hides, apparently. All I ever took off of Humans was six stacks of Jaina Proudmore autographed pictures…I was hoping to corner the market, but alas, they never increased in value.

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I’m waiting.
I see a lot of activity on the forums today from you but no update on this.

I said I would update the post, and I have, how about you check that attachment?

Because I did the other day and it was unreadable.

Yet you don’t care if it’s unreadable.

So how about you make it simple and just post this?

Rather than just rely on your “calculations and data”.

I just finished up some battles on my alt:

I took a bit of a hybrid approach, and I’m reasonably confident it was the best option for the number of Sigils expected to be played.

E.g. in cases like this, I took Kurandara since I didn’t expect to level the Mongo group past the break point within the expected number of Sigils:

But in all cases where it was Kurandara vs one of the two groups I was choosing to level, Pride and Minogor, I skipped (per your advice).

I’m not on my other computer to check exactly with my other alt, but I think I ended up at a similar point:

I had meant to post earlier in the week to put forward my take on skipping Kurandara, which I was almost in complete agreement around, but ended up running out of the amount of time I let myself spend here :stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes:.

As Sigils → infinity, always skipping Kurandara is the best.

If Sigils = 1, and taking Kurandara is an option, taking Kurandara is the best choice.

So I think there’s a middle ground, which is dependent upon the amount of Sigils you expect to play.

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Because you’re comparing apples with oranges. Someone can go through 80 battles without a Mongo, and another flips the wrong routes and has to take Mongo several times. Unlike the prior event, this one has huge variability across scores. See leaderboard:

Screenshot_20200831-131258

17 FEWER battles and 163 MORE points.

So if you wish to compare, it has to be like for like (same map route all the way). But if you cannot understand that and insist on comparing the only way you can manage, you do you.

Just curious - how many shop tiers?

So for Sanka, it was:

but lots of unplayed Sigils (I don’t recommend playing 3 accounts, tbh, especially in weeks like this…):

I can’t remember if I let any Valravens slip away, but I don’t think I did (I know it happened on my 200 account).

Minus the 15 Sigils from Tiers III-V, that would seem to be within Tier II (with a Sigil to spare), unless having bought the extra Tier allowed me to kill an extra Valraven that I otherwise wouldn’t have been able to(??).

Or were you looking for the Shop tiers/battles played from Altimus?

Edit: turns out Altimus did the best of all three of us (me and my two alts) (despite losing a battle or two and a Valraven)!!! :stuck_out_tongue: Third time’s the charm:

Also ended up on a similar screen…

I.e. I didn’t fully track it, since I’m a bit over trying to give feedback on these World Events (doesn’t seem to get much response), but I’m not fully convinced battles are varied between accounts? Not really sure what made up the score difference was between Sanka and Altimus, though…

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Fewer battles than who and more points than who?

I’m not the one telling everyone to skip Kurandara outside of 1 match.

I tried to caution you and tell you you’re assuming that the game will allow you the freedom to choose.
So if you showed the SS that I requested and even showed you an example of. Then you wouldn’t be trying to show everything else but what I asked for.

But I should’ve known better than to think that someone random on the internet that likes to advise others would ever admit that they were simply wrong. My mistake.