I’ve mainly been paying attention to the rarity tiers of tasks, because once the rarity ratios are known, calculating the rest will be simple. There seems to be equal weighting within each tier, with the exception of traitstones which appear to all count as the same task within a rarity tier before the type is rolled (thankfully, or half of all tasks would be traitstone tasks).
So far, running four accounts over seven days (29 trials, only one was patched on patch day, the rest the following day), my bottom tasks consisted of:
1 Legendary Task (keys)
Five Epic tasks: 1 gold, 2 traitstone, 1 keys, 1 gems (but two of these were today)
And the rest ultra-rare or below. With about a 2:1 bias from common/rare to ultra rare, but not too much distance between common and rare.
My top tasks out of 21 trials (I didn’t finish the 100 kills for two day on 2 accounts, and one account went 3 days without refreshing this task) consisted of 18 common (20 gems) and 1 legendary (10 gems).
Overall, based on experience with how rarity ratios are generally laid out in this game and my data so far I’d estimate the task rarity ratios currently as:
0.39 - 0.3 - 0.15 - 0.1 - 0.05 - 0.01
These are rough numbers. Mythic might be off by as much as 2 or 3 times, but also note that mythic tier does not give any gems at all. I feel epic and ultra-rare are pretty close to accurate. Legendary could be off a bit in either direction, but my gut feeling is that I’m being generous by setting it at 5%. Common and rare might be closer to each other than represented here, but common + rare combined (about 70% of these) is probably pretty close to accurate.
It looks like within a rarity, the chance to pull a given task is about the same, with the exception of traitstones, which (thankfully, or half of all tasks would be traitstone tasks) all appear to count as the same “type” for rolling them in. Again, this is based on data from just a virtual “month” of the system, so things might not be completely correct here. But I have gotten a good cross section between task types.
Now that we know all possible available tasks, we can see the average value of each rarity tier. Lets assume, for now, that valuable tasks are allowed to repeat within a given time period. Lower rarity ones certainly are.
For the daily refreshing tasks, I threw all possible rewards in a table, divided each reward by the number of different rewards in the pool to get the average reward per task per rarity tier, multiplied each tier by the rarity ratio, added them, and multiplied by three to get the average daily totals, then multiplied by 7 to get the average weekly totals. I didn’t bother ever separating out traitstones by rarity, but I know only minor, major, and runic are available. The goal here is to see a cross-section of the average daily rewards, and I think “a small pile of traitstones” does a good enough job here to show traitstones “value” representation within the tasks, even being weighted against.
So, for the bottom tasks, this is my best current estimate (if anything looks out of place, please let me know):
For the top “kill” task, a 95% - 5% rarity ratio is the best rough estimate I could give with this limited data. This aligns roughly with my 5% legendary estimate with the daily refreshing tasks, and I feel this is a pretty generous estimate. That would make it spit out an average of 24 gems per day, if you were diligent at completing it every day (and the “kill 150 of a color” task is especially laborious if you are used to short sessions and don’t feel like going to an explore kingdom where that color is high).
Which, added to the table, brings us to an estimated weekly average of 263 raw gems, in addition the the miscellany on the above table (approx 25k gold, 1.4k souls, 25 gold keys, 4.5 gem keys, 1.8 event keys, 0.2 VIP keys, 30 traitstones, 154 chaos shards, 4.7 pet food and 325 jewel shards).
In raw gems, this is very slightly better than the extremely lowballed 250/wk estimate. In keys, it falls completely short, even given the faction of a VIP key there. Glory is much higher (but total glory keys even including this is lower), gold is much higher (but it is still gold), and souls are actually lower (you’d get 1000/1200 soul tasks for just leveling a troop a couple times per week under the old task system for pretty much zero effort, and in the often “useless” top spot to boot). “Four Copies of an epic” is not represented at all in this system, where it was before, and thats a tricky one. Based on its placement on the table, they could be “valued” at as much as 50 gems on their internal metrics. But I’m betting all of this “gem value” plus a bunch of the keys “gem value” has leaked its way over to traitstones and chaos shards, given their relative showings on the table, with a minor to jewel shards and pet food because they don’t have a significant showing here compared to any “value” they could be assigned.
And yes, I know these are allegedly “useful for some”, but the thing about both of these is that the quantities they are given at are not significantly impactful to their respective systems. Chaos Shards you either only need a thousand or two per month to grab one of every faction troop or several thousand per month to max ascend the faction troops. A new player getting caught up might get accelerated by a few days per month toward being able to reach the point where chaos shards aren’t really a concern, and beyond that, its either another dead end or a bottomless pit. Traitstones have such severe imbalances right now due to how they are represented in delve rooms (not to mention the game-wide major stone ratio problem) that most these are dead rewards to everyone, whether or not they know it when they play through the task. I have a feeling that pet food and jewel shards are overvalued on their “gem value” table as well, but thankfully don’t seem to be skewing stuff that much. I certainly don’t feel good about them flooding the task system like this, given what their comparative “values” likely are (I’m willing to bet a chaos shard is assigned 0.5 “gem value”, and most of the stones likely have this or greater individually).
Gold and souls are whatever, so long as they aren’t time/reward negative with respect to other infinitely repeatable sources for the people most likely to do them (like they were in the old system) and they aren’t over represented on the table (IMO Epic tier doesn’t really need a gold task, but 20k for that effort isn’t bad, and gold is never totally useless - I have more issue with Epic having traitstone tasks). I still have no idea what is going on with gold keys, these are still an outlier in terms of any potential “value” I could attribute to them (in terms of “value” within a tier, they seem to be off by almost an order of magnitude). To my knowledge, only one task on the entire old daily tasks system gave these, the Adana one that would pop up every couple weeks or so, so it is odd to have them represented here.
Again, preliminary numbers only. But heres the same table with Mythic tasks, the highest key value task tier, appearance estimate tripled from my other estimate (taking away only from common appearance rate):
So we can shift the rarity ratio numbers around some still if we get more data, but at this point, it is hard to see any likely scenario in which the combination of gems, gem purchasable keys, glory, and glory keys would line up between this system and the previous systems unless these rewards were heavily weighted towards on the adventure board, which obviously doesn’t seem to be the case. Bias away from them would just make everything worse for us, but I’m not seeing that, either. After all, if they are claiming equal “gem value” between the systems, some of that “gem value” has to go toward traitstones and chaos shards, some to pet food and jewel shards, and maybe even a bit to gold.