So, I’ve been wondering if the Adventure Board really pays out for me, considering that it replaces both Daily Tasks and the Weekly Event. Ignoring the resources I don’t really need any more of, I used to get roughly these rewards each week:
That’s probably underestimating a bit, but let’s give the new system a chance, right? I’ll keep track of my weekly haul and add it after each week.
First week:
Kill 100 Troops : 20 gems
Dig for Gems I : 10 gems
Runes of Nature II : 6 minor traitstones, 4 major traitstones
Dig for Gems II : 15 gems
Kill 100 Troops : 20 gems
Harvest Souls I : 360 souls
Runes of Water II : 6 minor traitstones, 4 major traitstones
Search for Keys V : 15 gold keys, 2 gems keys, 4 event keys
Kill 100 Troops : 20 gems
Search for Gold I : 5000 gold
Seek for Glory II : 105 glory
Harvest Souls II : 540 souls
Kill 100 Troops : 20 gems
Harvest Souls I : 360 souls
Seek for Glory I : 70 glory
Runes of Water II : 6 minor traitstones, 4 major traitstones
Kill 100 Troops : 20 gems
Search for Keys I : 9 gold keys
Seek Glory II : 105 glory
Dig for Gems III : 25 gems
Kill 100 Troops : 20 gems
Runes of Warter I : 7 minor traitstones
Harvest Souls II : 540 souls
Mine for Jewel Shards : 825 shards
Kill 100 Troops : 20 gems
Dig for Gems I : 10 gems
Search for Gold I : 5000 gold
Search for Keys II : 4 gold keys, 1 gem key
Top tasks:
Bottom tasks:
Summing up the things I care about gets me:
The pile of glory makes up for the absolute absence of glory keys. Gems are quite a lot less, and high value keys took a really, really big hit. I guess the shards are okay to get, even though 8 converted diamonds aren’t much to write home about.
TL;DR: Huge disappointment, it’s the first week though, I might just have gotten a very unlucky streak.
You were way luckier than me. I’m hugely disappointed. 
Several legendary, several epic and several ultra-rare tasks? I guess there’s always one single person who wins the lottery. My second week started out quite underwhelming with a common soul task, a common glory task and a rare soul task.
I’ve mainly been paying attention to the rarity tiers of tasks, because once the rarity ratios are known, calculating the rest will be simple. There seems to be equal weighting within each tier, with the exception of traitstones which appear to all count as the same task within a rarity tier before the type is rolled (thankfully, or half of all tasks would be traitstone tasks).
So far, running four accounts over seven days (29 trials, only one was patched on patch day, the rest the following day), my bottom tasks consisted of:
1 Legendary Task (keys)
Five Epic tasks: 1 gold, 2 traitstone, 1 keys, 1 gems (but two of these were today)
And the rest ultra-rare or below. With about a 2:1 bias from common/rare to ultra rare, but not too much distance between common and rare.
My top tasks out of 21 trials (I didn’t finish the 100 kills for two day on 2 accounts, and one account went 3 days without refreshing this task) consisted of 18 common (20 gems) and 1 legendary (10 gems).
Overall, based on experience with how rarity ratios are generally laid out in this game and my data so far I’d estimate the task rarity ratios currently as:
0.39 - 0.3 - 0.15 - 0.1 - 0.05 - 0.01
These are rough numbers. Mythic might be off by as much as 2 or 3 times, but also note that mythic tier does not give any gems at all. I feel epic and ultra-rare are pretty close to accurate. Legendary could be off a bit in either direction, but my gut feeling is that I’m being generous by setting it at 5%. Common and rare might be closer to each other than represented here, but common + rare combined (about 70% of these) is probably pretty close to accurate.
It looks like within a rarity, the chance to pull a given task is about the same, with the exception of traitstones, which (thankfully, or half of all tasks would be traitstone tasks) all appear to count as the same “type” for rolling them in. Again, this is based on data from just a virtual “month” of the system, so things might not be completely correct here. But I have gotten a good cross section between task types.
Now that we know all possible available tasks, we can see the average value of each rarity tier. Lets assume, for now, that valuable tasks are allowed to repeat within a given time period. Lower rarity ones certainly are.
For the daily refreshing tasks, I threw all possible rewards in a table, divided each reward by the number of different rewards in the pool to get the average reward per task per rarity tier, multiplied each tier by the rarity ratio, added them, and multiplied by three to get the average daily totals, then multiplied by 7 to get the average weekly totals. I didn’t bother ever separating out traitstones by rarity, but I know only minor, major, and runic are available. The goal here is to see a cross-section of the average daily rewards, and I think “a small pile of traitstones” does a good enough job here to show traitstones “value” representation within the tasks, even being weighted against.
So, for the bottom tasks, this is my best current estimate (if anything looks out of place, please let me know):
For the top “kill” task, a 95% - 5% rarity ratio is the best rough estimate I could give with this limited data. This aligns roughly with my 5% legendary estimate with the daily refreshing tasks, and I feel this is a pretty generous estimate. That would make it spit out an average of 24 gems per day, if you were diligent at completing it every day (and the “kill 150 of a color” task is especially laborious if you are used to short sessions and don’t feel like going to an explore kingdom where that color is high).
Which, added to the table, brings us to an estimated weekly average of 263 raw gems, in addition the the miscellany on the above table (approx 25k gold, 1.4k souls, 25 gold keys, 4.5 gem keys, 1.8 event keys, 0.2 VIP keys, 30 traitstones, 154 chaos shards, 4.7 pet food and 325 jewel shards).
In raw gems, this is very slightly better than the extremely lowballed 250/wk estimate. In keys, it falls completely short, even given the faction of a VIP key there. Glory is much higher (but total glory keys even including this is lower), gold is much higher (but it is still gold), and souls are actually lower (you’d get 1000/1200 soul tasks for just leveling a troop a couple times per week under the old task system for pretty much zero effort, and in the often “useless” top spot to boot). “Four Copies of an epic” is not represented at all in this system, where it was before, and thats a tricky one. Based on its placement on the table, they could be “valued” at as much as 50 gems on their internal metrics. But I’m betting all of this “gem value” plus a bunch of the keys “gem value” has leaked its way over to traitstones and chaos shards, given their relative showings on the table, with a minor to jewel shards and pet food because they don’t have a significant showing here compared to any “value” they could be assigned.
And yes, I know these are allegedly “useful for some”, but the thing about both of these is that the quantities they are given at are not significantly impactful to their respective systems. Chaos Shards you either only need a thousand or two per month to grab one of every faction troop or several thousand per month to max ascend the faction troops. A new player getting caught up might get accelerated by a few days per month toward being able to reach the point where chaos shards aren’t really a concern, and beyond that, its either another dead end or a bottomless pit. Traitstones have such severe imbalances right now due to how they are represented in delve rooms (not to mention the game-wide major stone ratio problem) that most these are dead rewards to everyone, whether or not they know it when they play through the task. I have a feeling that pet food and jewel shards are overvalued on their “gem value” table as well, but thankfully don’t seem to be skewing stuff that much. I certainly don’t feel good about them flooding the task system like this, given what their comparative “values” likely are (I’m willing to bet a chaos shard is assigned 0.5 “gem value”, and most of the stones likely have this or greater individually).
Gold and souls are whatever, so long as they aren’t time/reward negative with respect to other infinitely repeatable sources for the people most likely to do them (like they were in the old system) and they aren’t over represented on the table (IMO Epic tier doesn’t really need a gold task, but 20k for that effort isn’t bad, and gold is never totally useless - I have more issue with Epic having traitstone tasks). I still have no idea what is going on with gold keys, these are still an outlier in terms of any potential “value” I could attribute to them (in terms of “value” within a tier, they seem to be off by almost an order of magnitude). To my knowledge, only one task on the entire old daily tasks system gave these, the Adana one that would pop up every couple weeks or so, so it is odd to have them represented here.
Again, preliminary numbers only. But heres the same table with Mythic tasks, the highest key value task tier, appearance estimate tripled from my other estimate (taking away only from common appearance rate):
So we can shift the rarity ratio numbers around some still if we get more data, but at this point, it is hard to see any likely scenario in which the combination of gems, gem purchasable keys, glory, and glory keys would line up between this system and the previous systems unless these rewards were heavily weighted towards on the adventure board, which obviously doesn’t seem to be the case. Bias away from them would just make everything worse for us, but I’m not seeing that, either. After all, if they are claiming equal “gem value” between the systems, some of that “gem value” has to go toward traitstones and chaos shards, some to pet food and jewel shards, and maybe even a bit to gold.
I’m confused. Is your 263 the “gem value” or “actual gems”? I get the feeling it’s “gem value” and I really don’t like that number.
I can buy a 250-gem shop tier with 263 gems. I can’t buy it with 250 gems and “13 gems worth of keys”.
Actual raw gems, on average, calculated based on estimates of the appearance ratios of “kill” tasks and daily adventure boards that contain gems and their relative rarities, assuming the stated appearance ratios (subject to change as we get more info, but raw gems will be about this unless legendary is much higher appearance) and that they get cleared every time they appear. I’ll edit to be clearer.
The devil is in the details, and it seems like there might be a pretty big one hidden here. Adventure board tasks show up with lowest rarity to the left, highest rarity to the right. Is this because they get sorted or because the slots don’t roll on the same tables?
I haven’t seen any duplicate tasks on the same day, so the tasks definitely don’t get rolled entirely independently. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are two “low quality” slots and one “high quality” slot, with only the latter one even able to roll up mythic, legendary and possibly epic tasks. We’ve seen this kind of handling before with the old iron keys and the legendary guild tasks system, it could further lower the average payout quite significantly.
I’ve had epic tasks show up in the second slot. It would take rather a lot of luck to naturally get epics in the first slot, or multiple appearances of legendary or mythic tasks.
True, you’d think someone would have posted a screenshot by now just to brag about it though. If the chance for a legendary task really is 5%, two legendary tasks on the same day should happen to 1 out of 400 players. Needs more data, but I’d consider that a strong indicator for additional limitations being in place.
I know for a fact that you can roll both a legendary and epic on the same day.
I don’t think duplicate task types within the same tier are allowed on the same day, but they are definately allowed across tiers (gems 1 with gems 3, traitstones 1 2 and 3, etc). You can most likely also have the same rarity fill every slot (no full common yet, but I’m betting it will happen). I’d have to go back and check my screenshots, but I might have seen a full rare or full ultra-rare. I know I’ve seen common, common, rare and common, rare, rare.
Looking back at everything again, my Legendary ratio might be a bit generous here, which would be bad news for the table’s overall value, since thats where the most gems come from since it has both the best payout and the best ratio of gems and keys to “other” (being just chaos shards). We’ll see in another week or so. If I get enough data, I’ll break it down by slot. I don’t expect a slot by slot breakdown to change too much, because while the ratios of “slot 1” would then favor lower rarity tasks, the ratios of “slot 3” would have to favor higher rarity tasks. I’ll need to see at least one mythic rarity task before I actually have any data for that (1% might be generous on that even), and I’d probably want a month (and four accounts worth) of data to use the hard data ratios rather than estimates.
I’ve had both in my first week list posted further up. My gut feeling is that two slots can only roll common to epic, one slot can only roll rare to mythic. Should be easy to disprove, only requires one player to run into a contradicting combination.
Started a data collection thread:
Boards from today on only, please, and for the full week, good or bad. Trying to avoid confirmation bias as much as possible.
Thanks for all the stats-work you’re doing, Mithran. Seeing the community come together like this in common cause makes me happy!
I don’t have a ss so maybe this means nothing to everyone, but according to my personal data, I had two legendary tasks on day 2.
You can still have the old system on switch if you want it. I hated the old system.
Confirmation that epic double legendary is possible:
One gut feeling debunked. Now I’m curious with happened to cause that “two tasks only” adventure board, it’s almost as if a duplicate task was received and discarded.
I think something to consider in terms of Mithran’s analysis is that even if the average number of raw Gems is lower, the Devs may feel that due to the low quoted participation with Daily Tasks (20%), more players are getting more Gems, on average, with the Adventure Board.
Another way to frame it would be that, assuming AB has higher participation, the Devs may be giving away more Gems/week due to greater participation or the relative ease(?) to obtain them.
I.e. they are utilitarians 
, which has its own implications.
