Amazing 
Xbox One?
150000 or 15k? Insane number this 150k…
Yeah, 150000 seals is a bit to much 
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1,400 gem (0.001 prob/pull) = 75.4 % chance for at least one mythic
150,000 guild seals (20/pull @ 0.0002 prob/pull) = 77.7 % chance for at least one mythic
200,000 glory (20/pull @ 0.0001 prob/pull) = 63.3 % chance for at least one mythic
50 VIP (0.01 prob/pull) = 39.5 % chance for at least one mythic
Just like how some people will pull at least one with just e.g. 50 gem keys (4.9% chance) and feel very happy, others will be left feeling unhappy by beating the odds in the other direction. 
Procrastinating at work, so haven’t double-checked any of the above.
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Wow that sucks. I spent less than that and got 5.
Those stats are one way to look at it (Imo the wrong way) Another way is to say they should have pulled about 10 mythics on average with that many resources.
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I doubt that RNG works like that. M sure there is thread where Salty explained how drops work for @awryan (not sure and can’t be asked on how to link a thread lol)
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Alas: Probability is unaffected by ‘should’ and ‘should not’
…it does sometimes leave us with a feeling of ‘s*cks’ though
Agreed that using this many resources should give the players some form of satisfaction instead of frustration, but that is the publisher’s doing, not poor old Probability. 
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It’s not independent Probability? I’d be interested to find that thread then! 
It is independent.
I think he’s assuming you’re adding up to (eventually) 100% chance you’d get it, rather than doing a calculation that only ever approaches that 100% by figuring out what the odds are of repeatedly failing for a given number of attempts
Edit: also ~2k guild seals, so I’m pretty stoked this week 
Also @Slypenslyde, I think the main reason strategy talk doesn’t happen in these threads (which I agree is a shame) is that most mythics have already had exhaustive theory-crafts in the main spoilers thread by the time they actually show up in-game.
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7k seals. Which given my luck with mythics, is really cheap.
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1k gem keys, 8k glory keys then it dropped from 575 guild keys
1 gem key, I kissed it before putting it in the chest.
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Around 1k keys between gem, glory and guild. Nothing. Not spending any more money on this game.
Only 1000 keys? That is actually not a lot
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Is that really true though? There’s usually some discussion on whether or not an upcoming mythic is good, but I haven’t seen too much strategic talk in that thread (i.e. what teams would be good, what other troops would go well with it, what it could counter/what counters it, etc.).
How are people coming to the conclusions of whether a mythic is “good” without taking the relevant strategic points into consideration?
I get what you’re saying, I think—that there should be more comprehensive discussions for every mythic if my hypothesis is to stand on two legs. But is a mythic, if its spell is deemed useless, its mana cost too high, or its trait-set lackluster (or all of the above), really worth further discussions, like potential teams?
For instance, I could spitball teams around Shade of Zorn — but it would be a waste of time at this point, because nothing I could build around his kit would be worthwhile in the current META. So, after discussing why his kit is bad (basically high set-up costs for a “save me when I’m down troops” strategy that, in Gems of War, is rarely a viable option), the rest of the conversation sort of dies naturally 
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I’m just saying, you were talking about exhaustive theory-crafts. I’ve seen one strategy post on Aquaticus and really none for Vash’Dagon (a harder-to-use than average troop) in that thread. Those aren’t bad mythics.
The sad part is that all the the better players wont theory craft mythics because they dont want you to know. They may spit out a couple decent team ideas but will never let on to what the plan is for it until you see it as a meta defense team. You may never see the offense versions as they keep them all secret.
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