Wait until ‘use an epic vault key’ comes up as a campaign task
If so, I’ll want my $10 refunded.
I had one single Infernal King resurrect (25% chance on kill) 7 times yesterday in a pet battle!
0.25^7 = 0,00006103515625 which is a probability of 1 in 16.384. Crazy. But hey, people are hitting casino jackpots too and many of those are waaaay rarer than that. It just smacks you in the face when it happens plus there’s always a huge fuzz around those kind of events which magnifies them, especially the negative experiences. It’s how our brain works and people like to complain about it (including myself).
We just need to try and be realistic enough to also realise the positive ones, like for example getting 5 pets gnomes in a few hours of PvP or having 10 blue orbs in a month. We tend to ignore that and especially not make a fuzz around it. I learned that and it makes those negative ones much easier to consume.
More on topic: I had 1 Epic Vault Key out of 20ish Vault Keys.
I saved mine for that exact joke!
That’s also true, I didn’t think of it from this POV. Although in either scenario, an average of just less than 1% of drops in a sample size of over 300 vault keys with no counter evidence of bad luck just from my dataset is still outside the zone of plausibility for me.
May need to clarify I’m not annoyed by the lack of EVKs, I still enjoyed farming in the vault key weekend without getting any. But as quoted below, someone left the community managers out to dry with the 10% number.
Just popping in to let you know that we ran tests as well as checked the code. I have been speaking to the team further and requested that we run another set of simulated drops just in case.
As far as we can see, from checking the code and the tests we have already run, they are dropping as intended. As many people have mentioned earlier, there is also a strong bias towards RNG, and the evidence in this thread is purely anecdotal.
Could we possibly know the drop rate of Epic Vault keys?
We only know that it’s 10% of X… But X is unknown to the community.
What about the multiple orbs or troops dropping? I thought that wasn’t suppose to happen?
Thank you for following up on this! Sorry for the unwarranted negativity by some people in these threads; most of us really just wanted to know if it was working.
If the code isn’t changed, one thing that might head off future frustration is making some gnome tracker levels reward epic keys. Maybe the 25 and 50 levels. I played pretty obsessively last weekend and barely broke 50 (hundreds of gnomes), so it wouldn’t affect net rewards very much but would let people try out the exciting new thing.
Perhaps this can be solved with a few simple question:
Did the rate quoted in the original post of 10% apply to during a gnome event weekend or not? Does the rate of Epic Vault Keys during a vault event weekend increase at a rate proportional to the increase of normal vault key drops?
I noticed every response so far has said “as intended” while conspicuously withholding exactly how much “intended” is. You already gave out a rate with the patch notes, even though it is thrown out as a rough number that is in proportion to another number that was never officially stated, it is that ratio that does not align with data (which is why there are claims of it being “wrong” rather than just “too rare”), being off by a large rate on the relative scale over a large number of samples.
Which is far less anecdotal than people throwing around “I got one” versus “I didn’t” in this thread. Can provide math if necessary.
The epic vault key rate not being increased by a vault weekend modifier actually sounds pretty believable, and would explain why the tests aren’t picking up on the problem - if there’s a problem. Vault keys are extraordinarily rare outside of a vault weekend, so epic keys would be too.
They simply need to check the total # of vault keys dropped for everyone during the weekend and the total # of epic vault keys. It should look something close to 10:1 if the 10% rate in the patch notes is to be believed. I’m convinced it’s far closer to 100:1 or only 1%.
Yeah, I wouldn’t mind hearing that this was checked (even if not disclosed, since I get that it’s sensitive info).
had similiar situations few months back -> 6 respawns
So yeah, he sometimes likes to troll.
on the other hand, i sometimes have quadra kills with skeleton key (and raising shadows on top of it), so… it kind of balances it…
so if, vault keys drop rates are increased in vault weekend
and epic vault keys drop rates aren’t
we should search if 1:30 vault keys drops is an epic vault key…
Let’s look on that from pure mathematics perspective.
If of all drops of Vault Keys, Epic Vault Keys drops in 10% cases and normal Vault Keys drops in 90% cases (and that’s what community thinks is stated in the patch notes) then:
From all players who got 10 vault keys from gnomes (not from tracker):
34.87% should get 0 Epic Vault Keys
38.74% should get 1 Epic Vault Key
26.39% should get 2 or more Epic Vault Keys.
From all players who got 20 vault keys from gnomes (not from tracker):
12.16% should get 0 Epic Vault Keys
27.02% should get 1 Epic Vault Key
60.82% should get 2 or more Epic Vault Keys.
Is anyone heard of the player which got multiple epic vault keys? I don’t know anyone.
Almost all players from my guild and many others fall in the category “got 0 Epic Vault keys”, few players got 1 Epic Vault Key.
Where is that huge percentage of players with multiple Epic Vault Keys?
You’re omitting one thing in your calculations: Vault Keys drop chance is increased during Vault Weekend. And probably Epic Vault Keys drop chances aren’t.
@Saltypatra Could you confirm/deny that statement?
if that’s the case, @Neritar you could do your math again…
Nobody’s given a straight answer for how much Vault events increase the key drop rate - in fact, the official support page uses the phrasing "During this time the chance of Treasure Gnomes appearing increases
and, therefore, so does the chances of earning a Vault Key as you can encounter more Gnomes. " which alludes to getting more keys ONLY proportional to seeing more gnomes.
But let’s take the most extreme combination to produce the lowest epic-to-normal chance - assuming
- (normal) vault keys are dropped 3 times as much as usual during vault events
- epic vault keys retain their normal drop rate in relation to gnomes (very funny coding style but let’s play along)
- epic vault keys drop at 10% the rate of normal vault keys, independently calculated, distinct to the normal vault key rate, so 1/11th of all key drops
These together give an epic key as a proportion of all keys ratio during vault weekends of
1 ÷ 31 = 3.23% (1 epic key to 30 normal keys === 1 of every 31 keys are epic)
Let’s round this down further to 3% for brevity to push the narrative further
For players getting X keys, this Y % of them will get Z epic keys from that X total at 3% chance
– 74% should get 0 epic keys
– 23% should get 1 epic key
– 3% should get 2 or more epic keys
– 54% should get 0 epic keys
– 34% should get 1 epic key
– 12% should get 2 or more epic keys
– 22% still get 0 epic keys
– 34% should get 1 epic key
– 26% should get 2 or more epic keys
The fact of the matter is that of the top 50 guilds, none are stepping forward with reports of 1/4 of members enjoying seeing an epic vault key. (I stand to be corrected, I’m not that well connected )
– there are expectations that haven’t been met, whether due to miscommunication, typo, bug or possibly massive bad luck for most players
– the outcome is mathematically possible, not probable, but possible. Let’s leave that on the table and exit the topic letting everyone keep their dignity
– the concern has been raised with community managers, and both have taken to the company (or devs), and they have responded officially. This is where the official story could likely end, and re-raising the concern repetitively and
badgering the community managers is not cool! Don’t shoot the messenger
Acknowledge the new world of +20% treasure , new daemon gnome, pity keys , and possibility of epic vault keys , and be thankful for the surprise extra vault weekend (it’s a game not a job, nobody held a gun to your head to do anything with it)
Wait for the next vault event and let’s revisit the topic.
This is, regrettably, a well-documented common occurrence in how this company communicates.
But this is the problem the stats-nerd players are trying to fix. There is a clear disconnect between what’s been promised (10%) and what’s actually happened in game (~1%). Any statement of “it worked as intended” just means the devs haven’t found the problem, and implies that they’ve stopped looking.
The devs need to either correct the promise or the code. Waiting until the next vault event just means we get another weekend of disappointment from (as you rightly say) an otherwise fun update, before we collect even more statistics and hopefully the devs then take some action.
I’d like some action before that, even if it’s just an admission that 10% was a complete miscommunication or an indication that they’re still looking at why barely anyone got an Epic Key even though we spent all weekend grinding full of hope and aspiration.