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Vault Weekend data collection - open for w/e 13 Sept

'Currently collecting data for the Vault weekend Fri 11 Sept 2020 - Sun 13 Sept 2020.'

I’m not sure if there is an established researching base like TheSilphRoad for Pokemon Go.
If there is, I’d like to join.
If there isn’t, anyone interested?

I think I saw a post from Redi dated a few years go collecting data for gnome appearance.
Do you think you can help me systematically collect:

  • # of battles done (that can spawn gnomes)
  • # of gnomes encountered
  • # of keys received

Over the whole weekend?

Even if you don’t record battles, just the latter 2 will be useful to work out key:gnome ratio. The simple way is to not use vault keys during the event - take note of starting number of keys. At the end of the event, just send me - # of keys (#normal, #epic) gained, and the final gnome tracker count, e.g. “4/30” (a total of 5+10+15+20+25+4 gnomes). If you have claimed the tracker keys, make sure to subtract them.

If I find myself playing without access to record accurately, I just omit that play session.

I find that it helps me track my games by simply recording my starting and end trophy counts, e.g. if Phoenicia Lv5 explores, divide difference by 2 for battle count. I have a small sheet of paper where I write down the key and 7 types of gnomes (even if you track just total gnomes, that’d be appreciated), then mark off tally counters 卌 卌 as I play. You might find it easier to tally battles the same way.

You can submit data here: https://discord.gg/hzMRQ8e
Or reply to this post on the forum.
Many thanks!

Raw data collected can be found here: Google Doc

On the face of it, unhappy people may be more inclined towards submitting after the fact, skewing the results.

Vault Weekend (2020-09-11) - 2 sets of numbers

PRE-COMMITTED TO DATA COLLECTION                          TOTAL
  10.3  [A] battles to encounter 1 gnome (16111/1559)  |   10.2  (26336/2579)
  11.5  [B] gnomes to drop 1 key          (2514/218)   |   11.9   (5862/391)
   2.3% [C] of vault key drops are epic      (5/218)   |    1.0%     (5/491)
 5,196  [D] battles to receive 1 epic vault key        | 11,972

    12  total samples - *not all samples contain all metrics*
        [D] is projected from [A] x [B] / [C]
Vault Weekend (2020-08-16):

   9.8  [A] battles to encounter 1 gnome (14241/1446)
  12.0  [B] gnomes to drop 1 key (5013/418)
  0.70% [C] of vault key drops are epic (7/997)
16,941  [D] battles to receive 1 epic vault key

    19  total samples
3 Likes

If it helps I did keep track of # of battles and # of VK’s found ages ago. Over 20,000 battles I found a VK approx every 125 battles.

Thanks, I think I came across your post. I don’t believe 505 has announced any change in VK rates, but different people are telling me different rates. :man_shrugging:

Tacet (putting the man on the spot :slight_smile:) was on stream yesterday quoting 1 VK /15 gnomes during vault event, 1/30 outside. I know a few people who swear they’re not enjoying that type of odds, not even close.

Hence this thread. If we can get 100 people with 2,000 games over the weekend, that’d be 20x your sample size. :crossed_fingers:

Problem is keeping track of the battles. We used to have a “win count” on every class which is what I used to keep track. Inexplicably the devs removed that feature in an update long ago which was when I lost interest and stopped keeping track.

The new gnome tracker is a good addition to keep track of gnomes though, so there’s that. I will post how many gnomes I kill during the current event and how many vk’s I get (not including the freebies thanks to gnome tracker) and also how many (if any) evk’s I get. It would be good to get some somewhat large data sample on evk’s because I really am doubtful at this point the claim of 10% in the patch notes.

6 Likes

Explore battles; free vault keys (they’re not gnome drops) not included.

2 Likes

I’m at 317 gnomes across 3200 battles with no epic vault keys; haven’t been tracking regular key drops, unfortunately.

1 Like

Thanks for the great data dump! Just curious - am I right that you actually got 11 vault keys from treasure gnome PLUS 6 more from other gnomes, 17 total? That would make your key:gnome ratio quite low at 7.5%. I’m just clarifying before adding it

4334 battles, 467 Gnomes, 37 Vault Keys, 0 Epic Vault Keys.

…and I’m still flogging this dead horse!

1 Like

I feel for you buddy. Good luck :four_leaf_clover::four_leaf_clover::four_leaf_clover::four_leaf_clover: and keep chasing that unicorn!

At an individual level, that kind of chance - 0/37 will affect 2% of the population :frowning:
0.9 ^ 37 = 2%
If we have 100 serious grinders, 2 of them will probably come to the forums and report their fate. :disappointed_relieved: :sob:

Notwithstanding the possibility the devs introduced a bug somewhere…

  • Daemon Gnome loot doesn’t go up by 20% (please fix)
  • Troop loot does multiply by 4 ("documentation bug :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:)
  • Orb loot does multiply by 2-3 ("documentation bug :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:)

This page
https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx
tells me that given a 10% success rate and 37 trials, 2.7% of the general populace will end up with 8+ epic keys. :face_with_monocle: :grimacing:

2 Likes

Assuming the epic key drop rate is bugged, we won’t know if it’s fixed properly until the next vault weekend kicks off and everyone has left the office again. I’m pretty worried that there will be more issues, given how many things aren’t working as advertised.

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What level of Explore were you doing?
Thanks in advance

It doesn’t really matter what lvl you do, what does matter - how many games you can do per minute to be most effective. So it is best to do the lvl on which you can oneshot everything.

That’s precisely how it should read. When I started these spreadsheets, only Treasure Gnomes existed. Now, other gnome species - they’re just an added bonus in my book.

E5/6 with Phoenicia. As @Yogghurty says - where one can comfortably oneshoot stuff.

680 gnomes, 51 vault keys plus 16 bonus keys, 0 Epic Vault Keys.

2 Likes

27/40 finished

167 Gnomes
Net 10 Vault Keys
0 Epic Vault Keys

FWIW I wasn’t farming for farmings sake, I did a lot of Explore 12.

Comparing this to the enhanced vault the time before last, I played 20-25% less than then. I got 36 Vault Keys then.

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40/40 finished
180 Gnomes killed
10ish Vault Keys, lost count, plus the pitty keys 8
1 Epic Key

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As at Aug 17, 11AM UTC, summaries: (many thanks to all who submitted data)

14,241 battles recorded
303 keys
5 epic keys
3587 gnomes encountered

9.8 battles to 1 gnome
11.6 gnomes for 1 key
1.62% of all vault keys were epic **

** It should be noted that data was collected from 11 people only. 5 of them got epic vault keys. The sample size of epic vault keys is too small to draw statistically significant conclusions.

3 Likes

In case you are still welcoming more data:

392 gnomes killed (tracker 2/65)
29 random Vault keys (+12 Vault keys from tracker)
1 Epic Vault key (dropped from 178th gnome)

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Thanks, always. And there will be next round in just over 3 weeks. :slight_smile:
p/s I already had you in there from an earlier comment, but have updated it now in Google Sheets

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