Edit: BELOW MAKES A BAD ASSUMPTION AHHHH. It assumes Draakulis stays on the map even if you don’t pick him. Which isn’t true. So, yeah, below is wrong. Leaving it up in case it helps anyone…
I need to stop being distracted from work. Anyway:
TLDR: Prioritize in order: Crimson Bat, *Dullahan, Draakulis.
Assuming you pick Draakulis every time it’s up:
-It’ll take about 23 battles for Crimson Bat to be better than Draakulis.
-It’ll take about 90 battles for Dullahan to be better than Draakulis.
-Werewolf, Noferatu, and Vampire Lord will NEVER be better than Draakulis.
So, the above suggests to prioritize Crimson Bat, then Dullahan, then Draakulis. If Draakulis is up, he’s there just to reset the map so you can avoid the other three battles as much as possible.
If we pick Draakulis every time he shows up, that means in total we’ve had 9 options (the map starts with 5 + 3 more battles needed to trigger Draakulis + Draakulis himself). Let’s call these 9 options a “round”.
Draakulis is guaranteed to show up 1/9 times in a round.
There’s 5 other troops (Crimson Bat, Dullahan, etc). They each have an equal chance of appearing during the 8 options of a round. So, each troop can be selected 8/5 times (8 options * 1/5 chance).
Now to figure out how many rounds until Crimson Bat is better than Draakulis:
24 + 12r = 18 + 9 * (8/5) r
Left side of the equation is for Draakulis: He gives 24 points, and each round (r) boosts the points he gives by half (12). Right side of the equation is Crimson Bat. On average you can fight Crimson Bat 8/5 times in a round, hence that modifier.
The above states r = 2.5. Since a round is 9 battles, that’s 23 battles.
Repeat the above for the other troops.
*Dullahan is an iffy one. If you’re aiming for leaderboards or helping to carry your guild, pick Dullahan. If you’re just doing the minimum contribution (1/30 of total event points to clear all rewards), don’t bother with Dullahan. Looking at leaderboards, minimum contribution can be met at 56 battles. Dullahan takes about 90 battles to be worth it.