Bad luck I guess, but you might want to reconsider saying it is always attainable with tier 2 though. 
My last Valraven appeared in battle 36 or 37. I think I will just take the free gems from now on !
1 Like
Get ready for the huge increase the pets get when you take them to mythic. A big fat nothing.
Is there info available about when valravens show up?
Found this from April:
Waaaaaay back when Valravens were introduced, the devs said two things:
(1) they appear in roughly 25% of your battles
(2) players should always be within +/-1 Valraven chances of each other.
I, and many others, interpreted this to mean that events are broken into chunks of four battles. Each chunk is guaranteed one Valraven. To date, no dev has said that this is correct.
2 Likes
I wonder if anyone managed to get 3 Valravens consecutive a row? Is it possible Goodwill? Most I have been gotten is two a row.
That’s kind of a weird interpretation though. Let’s just pretend we had the probability conversation. I know you know 25% doesn’t mean “guaranteed 1 in 4”.
I’m starting to think Valravens have a fairly complex algorithm. You can’t get both 1 and 2 from your post without some extra smarts. If they were nothing but a 25% chance, we’d find some lucky souls getting 4 or 5 Valravens in a row. But I know for sure I’ve been 5 and longer without seeing Valravens. I also have a feeling I’ve never seen matches with back-to-back Valravens.
I also know some stuff from conversing with other people in my guild. Among those of us who don’t chase leaderboards, we’re usually within 1 or 2 Valravens of each other if we buy the same tiers. This is very consistent over the past few months. If it were JUST a % chance, I’d feel like we’d occasionally have outliers.
Also I’m finding patterns in faction events. We started with “tier II guarantees a win”, but a handful of people were able to win without tiers, or just tier I. I know a few people who got Valravens at just the point they had bought Tier II because they thought they’d need it.
I’m thinking the algorithm probably works on BOTH fixed Valraven encounters and chance-based encounters. It seems too complicated to have been implemented. But it seems to match what I see.
I think, over some n sigils, the algorithm ensures that every player sees a roughly 25% encounter rate for Valravens. I’m suspicious this is pity timer-based, or that the battles where you fight Valravens are predetermined. I think, in addition to this, the pattern includes a chance of inserting another Valraven or removing one Valraven.
So I think every n matches will have 25% Valraven encounters, +/- 1. And if you do 2n sigils, you see 25% +/- 2, and so on. This seems regular enough I’m suspicious all but that +/- 1 Valraven are predetermined.
One alternate implementation could be like:
- Valraven counter starts at 0.
- If a random number is less than the counter, you fight a Valraven.
- If you don’t see a Valraven, the counter goes up by some amount.
- If you see a Valraven, reset the Valraven counter to 0.
So in this approach, they can’t be back-to-back, and if the counter is managed in a clever way, “1 in 4” is managed and it is also likely over, say, 25 sigils, most people are +/- 1 of each other. I don’t think the counter is linear, I think it’s tilted to really favor “every 4 battles”. For example, without doing any math I feel like if the counter has probabilities { 0, 0.01, 0.05, 0.8, 1.0 } you’d get results like I see.
Either way: I think it’s too complex to consider just a % chance.
I am almost positive I’ve had back to back Valravens, which runs counter to your alternate version.
3 Likes
Thats what ive been doing after not being able to complete all class rewards despite buying 3 tiers and not losing a single valraven 2 weeks in a row
I got 3 in 4 games last friday. Ended up having only 10 battles after first day as usual. So nothing very special about it
1 Like
Did you managed 3 Valravens a row, or 2 a row?
2 in a row and then a third in 4th battle
Still pretty solid. Yet to hear anyone getting 3 Valravens a row.
Yeah I admit I’m going by “feeling” and not “data” but it does seem at least “very rare” to see them back to back? And it does seem like your statement is true: for people who spend identical amounts of sigils it seems likely to be within 1 or 2 Valravens of each other.
I know for sure it’s not “1 in 4 guaranteed” though. There have been times where I had exactly 4 sigils left and assumed I’d get a Valraven and didn’t. But it does feel “close to 25%”, any time I do math assuming 25% my model tends to work out.
If we have 4 sigils, then on average we expect 1 valraven for 2 more sigils.
Then with those 2 sigils, we would expect on average ½ valraven for 1 more sigil.
etc
So starting with 4 sigils, we should expect on average 4+2+1+½… = 8 battles total.
Is that right?
even tho the devs said 25%, i always feel like we get more than that.
here you can see tacet got 5 valravens (with 2 back to back) before using up his free sigils (he bought tier 3 which is 9 sigils)
for this particular event, i got a total of 28 battles which is much higher than the expected 12+6+3+1.5+0.75=23
if my memory isnt playing trick on me, for the 1 day class event, i usually get at least reward 3 (15 battles) just from the free sigils
I didn’t buy any tiers, didn’t lose any valravens and didn’t lose any fights. I was two sigils short of Reward 6. So, I was obviously unlucky in getting another valraven to spawn.
2 Likes
I feel like talent « Trees » are a mistake.
The original plan was to give more importance to the hero, and more personality to classes.
It works for certain classes, like the sorcerer that summons demons (hellspawns) and increase their magic. Or the assassin that summons Sisters of Shadows, steal life and can assassinate.
But on others, it’s wasted. Shouldn’t the necro summon Skelton’s? And the Mechanic summon some mecha (a construct is not a mecha).
Such little subtilities are impossible because of the fixed trees.
And it makes for this new classe without flavor.
It should summon some Fey. It should at least have a trait that helps Fey. But nope. Sad, such missed opportunity to make each class unique and special.
2 Likes
I don’t think summoning respective troops is the standard of general class uniqueness. You seem very focused on that and it seems appropriate and flavorfull for classes that use dark arts, or guilded classes that don’t fight fair and swarm enemies etc. but generally i find that unfitting for just as many of the other themed classes.
Admittedly it could work well for Frostmage as a summoner of ice elemental based troops, but the class could aswell be designed without summons and be just as flavorfull and unique.
1 Like
I was also 2 rewards away of getting rewards 6. I then went ahead and bought the first tier in the shop for 30 gems. For a moment I was sure that the reward number 6 was more valuable than 30 gems, I did not even check, but I was wrong, it only gave me 10 gems and some XP and some gold. I did not even manage to get reward 7 finished, as I would be 1 Valraven short, since I got no Valravens in the 3rd battle for reward 7, I decided to retreat from the match.
1 Like
We have few Talent trees and some are barely worth to be considered. What makes Frostmage good is the Arcane Talent Tree and one or two talents in the Water Tree and Storm Tree.
The devs should have designed unique/specific Talent Trees on each class and then added two other secondary trees, this way it would be much more easier to balance out the general theme while also allowing us to pick extras.
1 Like
I agree. Each class should have a unique tree of its own along with two general trees. That being said, balancing talents is extremely difficult. Th three-talent-per tier thing was borrowed from WoW, which changed to this model because the old system was impossible to balance — and yet even the new one has clear winners per tier for some class/specs.
4 Likes