Anyhoo… a pity counter would be a good idea. Other games have them 
2 Likes
I made a topic about this:
I have been in this game almost since the beginning. I have more resources than I will ever use. I have every troop except Zuul, so I rarely open chests anymore. I was having some fun and it worked out better than expected.
As you can see, I am not short on keys. 
2 Likes
Simple answer for you: don’t spend any money. Problem solved.
How come did this get flagged 
There no insult or anything apart from an argument that can’t be countered . It shows weakness. 
To put it frankly, there is a 100% safe and free method of knowing that the odds are real. It’s called Uninstaling the game 
As long as you continue to play the game, you agree to the published rates. If you disagree with them, or with the devs explanations, or such, it’s time to move on, simply as that👌
Once one is kneedeep in the paranoia domain, there’s no possible proof for that person. You ask for an external control/check of the odds. But will you even believe the results of that check, if they don’t match your expectations? Or will they be biased/bribed/etc?
Let’s say some authority demands 505 to hand over the source code, checks it deeply, and finds out the published rates are indeed true and accurate. What will the argument be then? That 505 bribed the authorities, or handed over a fakr code, or mindcontrolled the controllants, or what?
Just asking, to know what threads/arguments to expect in the future🤷
5 Likes
Here are the odds using the following formula:
1 - ( 1-(.11) ^ X)
1 0.11%
10 1.09%
20 2.18%
30 3.25%
40 4.31%
50 5.35%
60 6.39%
70 7.41%
80 8.43%
90 9.43%
100 10.42%
110 11.40%
120 12.37%
130 13.33%
140 14.28%
150 15.22%
160 16.15%
170 17.06%
180 17.97%
190 18.87%
200 19.76%
210 20.64%
220 21.50%
230 22.36%
240 23.21%
250 24.05%
260 24.89%
270 25.71%
280 26.52%
290 27.33%
300 28.12%
400 35.61%
500 42.32%
600 48.33%
700 53.72%
800 58.54%
900 62.86%
1000 66.73%
1500 80.81%
2000 88.93%
2500 93.62%
3000 96.32%
I’m not the one who flagged it, but my guess would be the fact that your implication that those of us in the beta group (note the badge) can be bought and sold is pretty insulting. Yes, I do stand by the devs a lot of the time. I think they have a difficult job and people like you don’t make it any easier. But I have also been known to roundly criticize them when I felt they deserved it.
My opinions are not up for sale. That you find it so easy to think so makes me wonder about yours.
11 Likes
Doesn’t have to be a bribe as long as the individual is getting a treat/privilege (in this instance Beta) ITS HARD FOR THEM TO CRITICISE LIKE US. 
It’s hard and wrong to bite the hand that feed you.
Beta tester are like a shop worker only for free (volunteers) dah
now Do worker do the review about the shop or real customers
So get a grip
Can you point out where I said what you just said?
Like I said because people like you that the community have hard time to convince the devs.
Look how you jumped all over this without any conclusion. And there is pattern about this behaviour now that you guys are starting to become like an obstacle for us like a pack of hyenas. (Speak to one and get dozen that reply to you without any conclusion)
Nothing personal i am not Salty like Salty I just speak honestly without a filter and I am lover common sense
Easy - “it’s hard to bite the hand that feeds you”. Got another interpretation for that?
“ITS HARD FOR THEM TO CRITICIZE LIKE US”
You divided the player base into two groups - the beta group and those who feel free to criticize.
I don’t care if you don’t want to stand behind your opinions because they mean less than nothing to me. But pretending you didn’t say what you said exposes you as the gutless coward you are.
7 Likes
Careful, @RiverSong. I agree that posts against the Beta testers are counter-productive and, frankly, make me want to throw a few choice words around myself, as we should all be grateful for those who do their best to advocate on the players’ behalf and get us the best game possible, but go too far in that direction and—even if you start in the right—you’ll end no better than those in the wrong.
Tl;dr: “gutless coward” isn’t very nice, and is just as flag-able.
1 Like
More generally, if the probability is x, the average number of attempts before a successful result is obtained will be 1/x, in this case 1/(0.11%) = 1/0.0011 = 909
So, if you have less than that number of keys, don’t expect to pull the card you’re looking for, and even if you do have that average amount, you’re still relying on luck.
To be more precise, the probability of at least 1 success from x attempts with a probabilty of 1/x approximates to this number:
1-1/e, where e is Euler’s number, 2.71828
So, the probability of at least 1 success in that case is approximately 0.63, or 63%, which is far from certain.
Even with double that average number, there is still a 13% chance of failure, and triple that number still has a 5% failure rate.
This is why many games have a “pity counter”, which counts how many failures you have had before granting a 100% chance of success, out of pity. If that pity counter were set at 3x the average amount, it would mean that in those 5% of cases, you would be guaranteed a successful result.
1 Like
Well you did react so i can’t see how you didn’t care then again you missing common sense you say one thing and do another
On other note if anyone doesn’t like my statement can just move on if they can’t have counter argumen. All I did is make a logical truthful statement.
I google it
Coward
noun
- a person who is contemptibly lacking in the courage to do or endure dangerous or unpleasant things.
Now I want to know who that is in this forum:thinking:
No you didn’t. You made an inaccurate statement attacking the beta testers that spent their time testing new updates to help the devs, the game and us all for free.
3 Likes
I didn’t say otherwise I said that their judgement is clouded unlike us this has nothing to do with what they do 
I can confirm what the other testers have said; we do not receive any payment of any kind, in-game or otherwise. And as far as being critical ; If it’s a change that I do not like or agree with then I say so , I just do it in a polite and respectful way. The same goes for the things that I like, I also let that be known to the devs.
7 Likes
Finally someone honest , smart and polite
Thank you @Macawi
Really thank you 
What? I don’t see how that’s different than the other replies other than 1 reply out of several being not “polite”.
Did I say beta get payment? No
Did I say that some beta judgements is clouded by the fact that they receiving a sneak peek and their criticism is not like ours? YES I did .
Did I ever say all the beta? No (but some yes)
Let me repeat what I’ve been saying all this time: I can’t take a review of a volunteer of company as seriously as someone that doesn’t have ties with a company. (Your friend up there stated his views without dismissing the facts or insulting?
And I don’t see him accusing me of something that I didn’t say. (He used his intellect to debate instead of just activating his defence mechanism like you)