# I Smell a Rat

had 34 fights generated (including the starting board). Each opponent should have shown roughly 6 times with a 1 in 6 chance of appearing. Xerodar: 3. Sledgepaw: 4. All 3 wererat variants combined: 14. Hex Rat: 13.
Over twice the probability so far for Hex Rat.
Bought Tier 3.

34 isn’t much IMO. If after a couple hundred fights, Hex Rat was still twice as common that’d raise an eyebrow.

Except that there’s probably only 40 battles (with ravens) left in the week. Which means that Hex Rat should appear, at most, once for the rest of the week.
Care to bet 50 bucks that happens?
And I’ve been asking around my guild/alliance to see how many others are getting similar results.
One person does’nt prove it. It does’nt disprove it either.

They’ll all get similar results. Battles are randomized for the event, not for each player. Think Tower of Doom, except that this is randomized for each guild instead of globally.

Wait, what? TOD is randomized per guild. World Events tend to have similar scores since there is a common strategy for each event to maximize points.
If the battles are “preset” for each guild, then the description should say so, instead of “randomly appearing”.

“Random” really means “unpredictable”.

So even if the battles are preset, if you can’t work out what is coming next, it qualifies as “random”.

You don’t seem to understand how probability theory works. Or you’re simply expressing it wrong.

The numbers you’re looking for or hoping for are something that the data should bear out over an incredibly large sample size, assuming that we’re being told the truth when the notes say that each enemy has an equal chance to appear.

But this isn’t the case for a finite sample size, especially a small finite sample size. If the Hex Rat is supposed to be 1-in-6, then each individual event should be a 1-in-6 chance, without any effect from the Hex Rat showing up 14 times in the previous 34 rolls or whether it showed up once in the previous 34 rolls.

Each event is wholy independent. And if the Hex Rat showed up only once over the next 40 rolls, that would be every bit as much of an outlier as it showing up 14 times in 34 rolls. Moreso, actually, because the odds that you’d only score one “hit” in 40 is a lot smaller than the odds that you’d score 14 “hits” in 34 events and that would remain the case even if the odds of scoring a “hit” were significantly higher.

That’s just how the math works.

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Yes, that is how probability works. It’s how Vegas cleans up on the roulette tables.
But the “outlier” is’nt an outlier. It’s plain not happening. I’ve been noticing that the lowest point battles appear more frequently than others during these world events. With a straightforward (supposedly anyway) layout, I’m able to track it.
I agree that more information is needed. I have’nt submitted a bug report or anything.
I’m trying to see if the percentages are wrong across the board, or if I’m just getting boned by RNG yet again.

Everybody who picks the same battle sequence gets fights worth the same score. Valraven show up randomlay for each player, subject to their appearance range.

They aren’t just preset for each guild, they are preset for all players. The description is technically correct, it just doesn’t explain all the details.

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From my experience, playing on two accounts, there’s a pre-generated list of battles. Or the seed is saved, so the next battle generated is always the same - I think that’s the case, the input is battle number and that generates the same battle for everyone. Either way, the end result is the same - when you complete a battle, the “next” battle from the list is picked.

So imagine the pre-generated list is:

battle 1
battle 2
battle 3
battle 4
battle 5
battle 6
battle 7

You start the event with battles 1 - 4 on the map. No matter which battle you take, once you complete it, it will be replaced with battle 5. After that, no matter which battle you take, it will be battle 6 that shows up next. And that pre-generated list is the same for all players.

And then there’s some other quirks, like when the event includes “special battle, only 1 will be on map at a time”.

From what I’ve seen, that’s not the case. There’s always one or two battles that you see more of than others, that’s because of the small sample size. And it’s not always the low-pointer battles. Just on “unlucky” weeks

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