had 34 fights generated (including the starting board). Each opponent should have shown roughly 6 times with a 1 in 6 chance of appearing. Xerodar: 3. Sledgepaw: 4. All 3 wererat variants combined: 14. Hex Rat: 13.
Over twice the probability so far for Hex Rat.
Bought Tier 3.
34 isnât much IMO. If after a couple hundred fights, Hex Rat was still twice as common thatâd raise an eyebrow.
Except that thereâs probably only 40 battles (with ravens) left in the week. Which means that Hex Rat should appear, at most, once for the rest of the week.
Care to bet 50 bucks that happens?
And Iâve been asking around my guild/alliance to see how many others are getting similar results.
One person doesânt prove it. It doesânt disprove it either.
Theyâll all get similar results. Battles are randomized for the event, not for each player. Think Tower of Doom, except that this is randomized for each guild instead of globally.
Wait, what? TOD is randomized per guild. World Events tend to have similar scores since there is a common strategy for each event to maximize points.
If the battles are âpresetâ for each guild, then the description should say so, instead of ârandomly appearingâ.
âRandomâ really means âunpredictableâ.
So even if the battles are preset, if you canât work out what is coming next, it qualifies as ârandomâ.
You donât seem to understand how probability theory works. Or youâre simply expressing it wrong.
The numbers youâre looking for or hoping for are something that the data should bear out over an incredibly large sample size, assuming that weâre being told the truth when the notes say that each enemy has an equal chance to appear.
But this isnât the case for a finite sample size, especially a small finite sample size. If the Hex Rat is supposed to be 1-in-6, then each individual event should be a 1-in-6 chance, without any effect from the Hex Rat showing up 14 times in the previous 34 rolls or whether it showed up once in the previous 34 rolls.
Each event is wholy independent. And if the Hex Rat showed up only once over the next 40 rolls, that would be every bit as much of an outlier as it showing up 14 times in 34 rolls. Moreso, actually, because the odds that youâd only score one âhitâ in 40 is a lot smaller than the odds that youâd score 14 âhitsâ in 34 events and that would remain the case even if the odds of scoring a âhitâ were significantly higher.
Thatâs just how the math works.
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Yes, that is how probability works. Itâs how Vegas cleans up on the roulette tables.
But the âoutlierâ isânt an outlier. Itâs plain not happening. Iâve been noticing that the lowest point battles appear more frequently than others during these world events. With a straightforward (supposedly anyway) layout, Iâm able to track it.
I agree that more information is needed. I haveânt submitted a bug report or anything.
Iâm trying to see if the percentages are wrong across the board, or if Iâm just getting boned by RNG yet again.
Everybody who picks the same battle sequence gets fights worth the same score. Valraven show up randomlay for each player, subject to their appearance range.
They arenât just preset for each guild, they are preset for all players. The description is technically correct, it just doesnât explain all the details.
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From my experience, playing on two accounts, thereâs a pre-generated list of battles. Or the seed is saved, so the next battle generated is always the same - I think thatâs the case, the input is battle number and that generates the same battle for everyone. Either way, the end result is the same - when you complete a battle, the ânextâ battle from the list is picked.
So imagine the pre-generated list is:
battle 1
battle 2
battle 3
battle 4
battle 5
battle 6
battle 7
You start the event with battles 1 - 4 on the map. No matter which battle you take, once you complete it, it will be replaced with battle 5. After that, no matter which battle you take, it will be battle 6 that shows up next. And that pre-generated list is the same for all players.
And then thereâs some other quirks, like when the event includes âspecial battle, only 1 will be on map at a timeâ.
From what Iâve seen, thatâs not the case. Thereâs always one or two battles that you see more of than others, thatâs because of the small sample size. And itâs not always the low-pointer battles. Just on âunluckyâ weeks 
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