Gems of Wars RNG is currently broken

I might be a bit of an outlier, but I don’t really think ‘Dynamic Difficulty Adjustment’ is a thing in GoW. Mostly because:

  • They said it’s not (aside from making it easier for new players)
  • It would be a pain to code, and the devs seem typically go for easy/simple solutions
  • None of the posts claiming it’s a thing have imo sufficiently refuted or accounted for the option that it could be confirmation bias, and just assumed that it was a thing/fact and that everyone agreed, or went for, “either you believe it or you don’t”

I’m still not necessarily happy with Skull drop rates in high level Delves and Arena (not that I’ve been playing it since the 2nd event), and wonder if the drop rate was made to be higher in Arena to make up for the slowness (not sure about the Delves, could just be the high consequences), but I tend to think those are different issues.

In terms of repeat LTs, I’m open to the possibility of duplicated rolls, the devs have made drop rate stuff ups in the past, and not communicated them particularly well, so it doesn’t seem impossible. I kind of agree with what akots was saying about it being a bit of a black box, though, and I don’t really see the devs opening it up in the near future (so I don’t fixate on that possibility).

In terms of the 4x Glory Keys, I had a feeling it was potentially a reward from a couple of the different LT reward tables, which I think turned out to be correct:

Drawn right to left, so 90% chance an LT won’t have 50 Glory Keys, 30% chance it will have 4, 0% chance of the same reward type in the following column, then 90% * 70% (chance of not getting the keys in Table 2) * 30% (getting them in T3).

(0.9 * 0.3) + (0.9 * 0.7 * 0.3)
= 0.27 + 0.189
= 0.459

I.e. a 45.9% chance of getting 4x Glory Keys as a reward in any LT, which is pretty lame – but I think we already knew LTs are usually disappointing.

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