Gem Dragon Community Drop Rates

[Jonathan]

How would players feel if there were two Soulforge options:

1. Random Dragon Egg (current) – 500 Dragonite

2. Unowned Dragon Egg (Lvl 1-6), with the price increasing the more unique dragons you already have

   • e.g. 500 Dragonite if you have 0 unique dragons (normal), 600 if you have 1, 750 if you have 2, 1000 if you have 3, 1500 if you have 4, 2150 if you have 5

   • This adds up to 6500 total Dragonite, the median expected Dragonite expenditure when crafting random Eggs as described here (where 13 Eggs x 500 = 6500 Dragonite):

@Daisy

The chance of having all six coloured dragons after crafting n Gem Dragon Eggs is:

(6! * S(n,6)) / (6^n)

Players                        Eggs used  Dragonite  Gems   Days to complete
Very lucky players (top 1.5%)  6          6000       30000  100
Average (median) luck          13         9500       47500  159     
Very unlucky (bottom 1.5%)     33         19500      97500  325

This way, no one has to end up worse off than the average player, unless they want to test their luck and gamble at 500 a pop.

• After all 6 have been crafted, the option then becomes either unavailable/greyed out, or lets you randomly craft one of the dragons you have the fewest copies of, again at a higher cost (not as high)

• It could be implemented so that a small fee/premium is added to the total expenditure when crafting guaranteed dragons, e.g. 6500 + 10% = 7150 Dragonite, spread over the crafting levels

  • Or it could be acknowledged that the current system is frustrating, and just keep it at 6500

Fairest method to determine crafting costs

Could someone with good math skills distribute 6500 (or similar numbers) inversely proportionate to the remaining chance to craft a unique dragon at each level / Daisy’s distribution above? @Daisy ?

Let me know if that doesn’t make sense… I hope the idea is understood, i.e. similar to how the example numbers I gave above balloon towards the end.

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N.B. It’s worth noting that if a Guild Guardian-style ‘duplicate protection’ was introduced (please), either alternatively or additionally (please the latter), where having x4 copies of a dragon would remove it from the drop pool, this would cap the number of Dragon Eggs required to guarantee 6 unique dragons at 21, or 10,500 Dragonite.

• This protection would remove the need for my fiddly suggestion above of crafting “one of the dragons you have the fewest copies of, again at a higher cost (not as high)” once all 6 have been crafted.

• Everyone wants this, regardless of anything else. Just do it.

The fact that this has been allowed to go on long enough for players to trend towards that “Very unlucky (bottom 1.5%)” category → i.e. have a Very Bad Player Experience is just shit.

I can only imagine enough Gems are still being spent on Dragonite that they just haven’t been willing to risk doing anything that might have an impact on that .