# So, you want to craft Diamantina?

The path to getting your filthy paws on the lovely new Boss troop looks pretty straightforward at first.

1. Craft some Gem Dragon Eggs to get the six new coloured dragon troops.
2. Craft the two new legendary ring weapons (one needs all three dragons, the other needs all three )
3. Craft the mythic ring
4. Craft Diamantina

Easy, right? Unfortunately, there’s the matter of Gems of War’s newest currency - Dragonite.

If you’re the luckiest player on the planet and get six different dragons from your first six eggs, the total cost (ignoring souls) would be 6,000 dragonite. At the exchange rate in the dungeon shop, that equates to 30,000 gems spread over 100 days. Ouch.

Even worse, that’s the also the best case scenario. The chance of getting six different dragons from your first six eggs is (5/6 * 2/3 * 1/2 * 1/3 * 1/6) = 5/324. Roughly a 1.5% chance. For the rest of us mere mortals, it’s going to take a little longer…

To calculate the chance of having a full set of six dragons after crafting a certain number of eggs, we get to use some cool areas of maths including partitioning of sets. The chance of having all six coloured dragons after crafting n Gem Dragon Eggs is:

(6! * S(n,6)) / (6^n)

``````Players                        Eggs used  Dragonite  Gems   Days to complete
Very lucky players (top 1.5%)  6          6000       30000  100
Average (median) luck          13         9500       47500  159
Very unlucky (bottom 1.5%)     33         19500      97500  325
``````

So if you experience very bad luck with your dragon-hatching, you might be looking at a year or so of waiting, and that’s assuming you have the 300 gems every single day to convert into more dragonite!

Of course, you’ll also be able to get some dragonite from the fancy new dungeon mode, but that’s only if you get a ‘Perfect Run’, which has an exactly 10% chance of happening each day. Once we know how much it grants, I’ll update the guide, but I’d be surprised if it makes even a tiny dent in the amounts we’ll need to craft these beautiful new dragons.

.

For reference, the formula for finding the probability of successfully collecting a full set after opening a set number of items is very cool, and is applicable to lots of things of the world of gaming. If you’re interested, look up Stirling Numbers (2nd kind)

All of this analysis assumes that there will not be any duplicate protection for opening Gem Dragon Eggs. Based on how the similar existing scenarios of summoning stones and getting repeated mythics from chests works, I feel this is a reasonable assumption to make

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Thanks for your short guide on this.
Perfect for everyone to already grasp how dumb this update is.
Not even remotely what players desire.

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I appreciate your effort writing a guide, you should definitely check your numbers though, they are way off.

Edit: I appreciate it even more now that the numbers that are off seem to be mine.

Crafting a dragon costs 500 dragonite, 6 x 500 = 3000.

Edit: You mean total crafting cost for everything, 6k dragonite is correct for that.

The chance for a perfect run is 60%, see calculation.

Edit: I obviously need to grow more fingers to calculate better, 10% is correct.

It’s 80 + 2 x dungeon level.

The dragons are really some of the easiest to get mythic troops so far, even if you don’t spend any gems at all.

Edit: Average of 12 dragonite per day at level 20, I’ll take back the “easiest to get” part.

80 + (Dungeon Level x 2) is not confirmed. Guild mate got exactly 80 Dragonite from perfect run.

Edit: Correction: Guild mate actually got 82 Dragonite, not 80.

OP is correct in their math regarding 6k dragonite. Each crafting recipe has additional 500 to 1k cost each.

so complicated?
I haven’t got Hoard Mimic yet
and now this

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I appreciate your effort writing a guide, you should definitely check your numbers though, they are way off.

You might want to change this sentence, as you’ve subsequently walked back all of your ‘corrections’. (Not trying to boast, just to assure you that I do know what I’m talking about) I do have a 1st class MSc in Data Science, so I’m pretty confident in my field.

I think it’s too early to say how long it’ll take to raise a dungeon to level 20, (do we know whether the 7 colours/days need 20 stairs each?) but I’ll update the post when that’s become clearer. Even if it reaches 10 dragonite per day, it’s not going to have a huge effect on the timescale. (roughly 3-3.5 years to get Diamantina if you need gems for events and can only get dragonite from the dungeon)

The TL;DR for this guide is that Diamantina is only for the whales and tryhards (and even they will need about a year to reach it) for the moment, and maybe in the future they’ll consider adding other avenues to get dragonite for the rest of us. In the meantime, I’ll be happy to just get a couple of the coloured gem dragons, (fingers crossed for the pretty one!) and I think it’s really cool for team diversity that everyone will have a different selection unlocked.

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So 6 dragon eggs 500 each, 2 weapons 500 each and a weapon for 1000 dragonites, if it isn’t 5000 dragonites for all, I am missing something. Man, the eggs are going to generate a random dragon, right? Even if buy your way to get eggs, you may get a duplicate…

+1000 Dragonite

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oh, thanks

Yet another reason to spend less time and zero money on this game. Another resource / cash grab explicity demonstrating that bug fixes simply aren’t on the agenda. Woeful.

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So for “fun” (and as a fellow data nerd/career data guy), I can say it’s…ahem…theoretically possible to have Diamantina soon! All you need is…drum roll please

Roughly 43 straight days of hitting the 10% “perfect” run (and I used 82.5 Dragonite for this seeing as there’s been anecdotal reports coming in from 80-85), and spend 12,900 gems on 43 days of Dragonite offers and hit the perfect run of all 6 dragons without a single duplicate.

So it would be ~.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000015% shot you can have all the troops by October 4th…if you didn’t do your dungeons before the patch yesterday.

But fear not! The odds of winning the Powerball lottery are ~.00000034223%

(Pretty certain I got the number of leading 0s correct. Still early in the morning and just starting my work day)

Edit to add: I could theoretically use the chain of 10% scenarios to compare to the supposed 10%/10%/10% Hoard Mimic chance but even I don’t hate myself that much

Edited once more because I couldn’t help myself and it’s theoretically straightforward. You need 3 separate 10% chances to all hit for the Hoard Mimic assuming the common logic is correct (10% Mimic, 10% Hoard Mimic fight, 10% drop). Being that we’d need to continue that 10% streak 43 times, we’re looking at the statistical equivalent of 14 Hoard Mimic drops in a row with a 2x Mimic fight as the cherry on top. At least the final mimic drop could be 2 Gaard tokens!

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The dragonite amount for a perfect run still stands.
Fair enough though, and edited. I really, really should have known better, my numbers were just too unusually player friendly.

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They do not. I found stairs yesterday and today’s dungeon is still level 2. So there’s only one dungeon level.

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@Kafka This looks like a little too much to me. I may as well get my forum account deleted soon as I will go totally bonkers just after a few duplicate dragons. Can’t talk for everyone, but this is sore thing for me.

I actually like it, tbh. Nothing was lost, something new was added (dungeons were really old) and I have a way to get curse runes for sure, every day, so I can get the 6 weapons.

Yes, it’s yet another currency, but they have to have some kind of chase mechanic. Of course, there’s still those deeds…

2 Likes