The path to getting your filthy paws on the lovely new Boss troop looks pretty straightforward at first.
- Craft some Gem Dragon Eggs to get the six new coloured dragon troops.
- Craft the two new legendary ring weapons (one needs all three dragons, the other needs all three )
- Craft the mythic ring
- Craft Diamantina
Easy, right? Unfortunately, there’s the matter of Gems of War’s newest currency - Dragonite.
If you’re the luckiest player on the planet and get six different dragons from your first six eggs, the total cost (ignoring souls) would be 6,000 dragonite. At the exchange rate in the dungeon shop, that equates to 30,000 gems spread over 100 days. Ouch.
Even worse, that’s the also the best case scenario. The chance of getting six different dragons from your first six eggs is (5/6 * 2/3 * 1/2 * 1/3 * 1/6) = 5/324. Roughly a 1.5% chance. For the rest of us mere mortals, it’s going to take a little longer…
To calculate the chance of having a full set of six dragons after crafting a certain number of eggs, we get to use some cool areas of maths including partitioning of sets. The chance of having all six coloured dragons after crafting n Gem Dragon Eggs is:
(6! * S(n,6)) / (6^n)
Players Eggs used Dragonite Gems Days to complete Very lucky players (top 1.5%) 6 6000 30000 100 Average (median) luck 13 9500 47500 159 Very unlucky (bottom 1.5%) 33 19500 97500 325
So if you experience very bad luck with your dragon-hatching, you might be looking at a year or so of waiting, and that’s assuming you have the 300 gems every single day to convert into more dragonite!
Of course, you’ll also be able to get some dragonite from the fancy new dungeon mode, but that’s only if you get a ‘Perfect Run’, which has an exactly 10% chance of happening each day. Once we know how much it grants, I’ll update the guide, but I’d be surprised if it makes even a tiny dent in the amounts we’ll need to craft these beautiful new dragons.
For reference, the formula for finding the probability of successfully collecting a full set after opening a set number of items is very cool, and is applicable to lots of things of the world of gaming. If you’re interested, look up Stirling Numbers (2nd kind)
All of this analysis assumes that there will not be any duplicate protection for opening Gem Dragon Eggs. Based on how the similar existing scenarios of summoning stones and getting repeated mythics from chests works, I feel this is a reasonable assumption to make