We still have an 80% troop chance reported by Taransworld (and independently supported by data from my last legendary hunt across our accounts, still 1 in 5 drops are traitstones). Ultra-rare used to comprise a whopping 85% of possible troop drops, which are now split almost evenly between commons, rares, and ultra-rares (about 27% each, with the difference going into the buffs for other rarities).
I’d be lying if I said this situation didn’t irk me a bit, and I wasn’t even opening chests. I’ve lost count of how many times there have been errors in drop pools and become increasingly irritated every time it happens and then drop rates are refused to be outright disclosed so players can do their due diligence in the future.
I also find it a bit odd that this “old” data and “unused” data exposed to Taransworld is somehow still able to correctly inform when actual drop rates are incorrect with a degree of regularity. I know it doesn’t come from the same source and isn’t necessarily correct at all times (correlation does not necessarily imply causation, after all) but this keeps happening again, and again, and again. So far only times where drop rates are outright contradictory to the information exposed here is when either actually old data is present (new data hasn’t be pulled yet, such as immediately following a reset) or when has been when it has specifically reported by a dev after the fact when there has been no way to go back and independently verify it. Every time I hear the “yeah but it might not be totally correct oh and it turns out this one time it wasn’t (too bad you don’t have enough evidence to directly contradict it)” line, even though it may very well be technically true, I feel like somebody is trying to gaslight me.
As an example:
Remember when Pharos wasn’t in event chests, empirical data was supporting it as a bunch of people were opening hundreds or thousands of event chests and not a single pull was reported. Remember how data exposed to the client (the files parsed by Taransword) confirmed the issue, it was then officially stated Pharos was allegedly in chests, but at a “lower drop rate” (which turned out to be 0%, as shown in these files)? And that also same exact error presented in the archived data exposed to the client for Forest of Throns week (Yasmine’s Chosen) a few weeks earlier (mythic was in pool at 0% drop rate), but less attention was paid at the time (it is the norm to not get mythic drops from event keys after all, and almost nobody was breaking the bank for this one), and it was reported that the devs didn’t have logs anymore so they couldn’t do event key reimbursements because they had no way to tell who spent how many even if the drop tables were incorrect. Yeah, somehow that was definitely one of those instances where the data exposed to the client was unquestionably wrong, and Yasmine’s Chosen was absolutely available. Yep.
It is really far, far past time for actual drop rates to be shown by an official source, pulled from the same data that the game uses to hand out the drops, real time and historically. The stance that “people don’t understand probability so it would increase support tickets” doesn’t fly when so many mistakes keep getting made with this.